Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday October 2nd)

Best Days: Today for the keen, tomorrow, Sunday morning Surf Coast, Tuesday morning Surf Coast, Wednesday on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized, mid-period SW swell easing tomorrow, further Fri
• Moderate to fresh NE winds tomorrow, tending E/SE-SE from PI east into the PM
• Small, fading surf Fri with strong N/NE winds, easing later ahead of a possible S/SW change in the west
• Tiny Sun with N/NW tending W/NW winds
• Moderate sized, mid-period W/SW swells building Sun, easing slowly Mon
• Fresh W/NW tending W/SW winds Sun, W/SW-SW Mon (likely light W/NW early)
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Tue with lingering SW winds to the east, variable to the west ahead of SE sea breezes
• Easing swell Wed with N/NE tending variable winds

Recap

Yesterday favoured the Surf Coast through the morning with a mix of mid-period W/SW swells to 2-3ft under a W/NW breeze that quickly strengthened and then shifted onshore, writing off the surf for the rest of the day as the swell continued to build.

Today we’ve got a peak in SW swell energy with light to moderate E/SE winds, creating workable options across all regions, though not to the quality seen under a true offshore wind.

New swell with light onshore winds today

This week and weekend (Oct 3 - 6)

Tomorrow is still the pick of the period as the current swell starts to back off under moderate to fresh NE winds, holding all day on the Mornington Peninsula but tending more E/SE-SE further east from Phillip Island into the afternoon.

The Surf Coast should ease back from 3ft+ with 4-5ft sets to the east, smaller into the afternoon and then fading from 1-2ft and 2ft to possibly 3ft respectively both west and east of Melbourne Friday.

Stronger N/NE winds will create trickier conditions while also likely killing off the fading energy, with a temporary relaxing of winds likely into the afternoon ahead of a small trough in the west.

There’ll be no swell left in the mix Saturday with a fresh N/NW tending W/NW breeze ahead of the next swell generating frontal system.

This will actually be a mix of weak frontal systems moving under the country from tomorrow evening through the weekend, with various fetches of storing W/SW-W winds due to generate pulses of mid-period W/SW swell.

The first for Sunday should build through the day and reach 2-3ft+ across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east into the afternoon, with Monday due to ease from a similar size.

Winds on Sunday morning will favour the Surf Coast, fresh from the W/NW, shifting W/SW after lunch with Monday unfortunately seeing fresh W/SW-SW winds in the wake of the one of the swell generating fronts. There’s a good chance for lighter W/NW winds across the Surf Coast but we’ll confirm this on Friday.

Tuesday morning should be cleaner on the Surf Coast along with some new mid-period SW swell from the backside of the front moving through on Monday. Surf in the 3ft range is likely with Wednesday looking better under a N/NE offshore and fun sized, easing swell across all regions.

Longer term, the progression of healthy but not overly significant storms moving in from the west looks to continue, but more on this Friday.