Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday May 17th)

Best Days: This morning, later tomorrow, Sunday ahead of the afternoon change

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large S/SW groundswell arriving late today, peaking early tomorrow, then easing steadily
• Fresh to strong, pre-dawn S/SE winds tomorrow, easing steadily through the AM and light S/SW into the PM
• Low point in swell Sun AM, with a moderate sized, mid-period SW swell building into the PM
• Strengthening W/NW tending W winds, SW later PM Sun
• Easing swell Mon with fresh S/SW winds
• Moderate sized S/SW groundswell for Tue PM, easing Wed with S/SW winds
• Smaller Thu with W/NW tending S/SE winds

Recap

A pumping day of waves across a wide range of regions with a large pulse of SW groundswell under favourable conditions most of the day. The Surf Coast kicked to the 6ft range with 8ft bombs at Bells/Winki, 8ft to the east.

This morning the swell has backed off to a slower 4-6ft but with generally clean conditions again on the Surf Coast with bumpy surf to the east. Conditions will remain favourable until about midday ahead of a SW change so surf before then.

Large and pumping yesterday (Judy Scanlon)

This weekend and next week (Apr 18 - 24)

Following a couple of days of great surf, we’ve got a run of tricky conditions and onshore winds as we fall on the backside of all this current frontal activity and high pressure sits to our west.

This afternoon’s change will be linked with our secondary, strong swell producer for tomorrow morning, but it’ll all be a waste and met with fresh to strong S/SE winds at dawn, easing quickly back to moderate later morning and light into the afternoon from the S/SW. If anything the late arvo paddle might be worth a look.

Swell wise, a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds have generated another large pulse of swell for later today and early tomorrow to 6-8ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 8ft to the east, easing through the day and smaller into Sunday morning, back temporarily to 3ft or so west of Melbourne.

Winds on Sunday will shift back to the W/NW and be strong through the morning, shifting W’ly early afternoon and then SW later as the next swell producing system moves through.

We should see the moderate sized, mid-period energy from this frontal system building into the afternoon as winds remain doable, reaching 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east, easing from a similar size Monday morning but with fresh S-S/SW winds, easing slowly into the afternoon.

Unfortunately winds will persist out of the S/SW on both Tuesday and Wednesday, spoiling a new, moderate sized S/SW groundswell.

The source will be a strong polar low on the polar shelf, but it’ll be cut in half by the ice shelf, and won’t come in as good as it looks on paper. A slim fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W’ly winds should still generate a spike Tuesday to 4ft on the Surf Coast into the afternoon, 5-6ft to the east, easing Wednesday.

A temporary W/NW offshore is due Thursday morning but with small fading surf from 2ft or so on the Surf Coast.

Longer term next weekend looks cleaner for the beaches with small, background swells, with some better swell on the cards for the following week. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!