Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 12th)

Best Days: This morning, Monday to the east, Tuesday morning exposed beaches for the keen

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing W/SW swell tomorrow
• Gusty but easing S/SW winds tomorrow AM, freshening into the PM
• Strong S tending later SE winds Sun
• Small mid-period S/SW swell for Mon, with a building SE windswell on the Surf Coast
• Strong E-E/NE tending E/SE winds Mon
• Easing swell Tue with strong N/NE winds, tending variable later
• Strong S/SW winds Wed, S Thu

Recap

Yesterday offered clean conditions on the Surf Coast with building levels of inconsistent W/SW energy. The morning was 2ft or so with more size developing as onshore winds started to blow, fresh into the afternoon. Locations to the east were doable with the light morning winds.

Today we've got a secondary pulse of more consistent W/SW energy in the mix with a moderate onshore wind on the Surf Coast and sets to 3ft+, cleaner to the east with solid 5ft+ sets.

Winds will tend E/NE-NE across all locations this morning before sea breezes start moving in from midday or so.

Solid on the beaches this morning but nice and clean

This weekend and next week (13 - 19)

Make the most of this morning as we'll see conditions deteriorate into the weekend as a surface trough moves through early tomorrow morning, bringing a strong S/SW change.

The change will abate through the morning, tending moderate for a period before freshening again into the afternoon. With this there'll be nowhere to recommend and we'll see our current swell easing back in size.

Stronger S'ly winds are due into Sunday, tending SE into the evening as the trough moving through early tomorrow deepens inland to our north-east.

At the same time a strong high will move in from the west, with a tight pressure gradient setting up strong E/SE-E winds on Monday.

Some localised SE windswell will be generated by these winds on Monday, building to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast into the afternoon/evening as winds shift E/SE.

To the east, the surf should be clean and semi-peaky, with a small, background mid-period S/SW swell due to be in the water. The source is a weak front projecting up towards Tasmania today and tomorrow. The models are also showing a longer period signal but this will have no size, generated by a small storm in our far swell window around Heard Island.

Instead 3-4ft surf is likely on the Mornington Peninsula but with those favourable E/NE winds during the morning, choppy into the afternoon.

Tuesday should be cleaner but smaller with strong N/NE winds and an easing 2ft of windswell on the Surf Coast, 2ft on the beaches to the east. Conditions should be favourable until later afternoon, while our next trough will arrive into the evening, bringing strong S/SW winds on Wednesday and a building windswell.

The front linked to this flush of cold air on Wednesday evening looks to stall in our region through Thursday, bringing windy, cool, stormy conditions, only clearing later week and into next weekend as the next system approaches through the Bight.

So all in all next Monday and Tuesday morning look the best options for a surf following this morning. Have a great weekend!