Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 17th November)

Best Days: Tomorrow until mid-late afternoon, Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slight drop in swell tomorrow with variable winds, giving into sea breezes from mid-afternoon
• Large S/SW groundswell building Sun with variable tending E/SE-SE then fresh S/SE winds to the west, S tending S/SE to the east
• Easing swell Mon with moderate S/SE winds
• Smaller Tue with light to moderate S winds, freshening
• Small-mod sized mid-period SW swell for later Tue, peaking Wed AM with gusty S/SW winds
• Easing swell Thu with strong SE winds
• Stormy SE windswell later next week and weekend with strong E/SE-SE winds

Recap

The large swell seen earlier in the week has been on the ease the last couple of days, still a good 4ft and workable across the Surf Coast yesterday morning with a light onshore breeze, smaller today and a little messier. Options to the east have been very limited.

This weekend and next week (Nov 18 – 24)

Tomorrow morning will finally see winds tend variable across most locations, though there's likely to be some lump and wobble thanks to the lack of true offshore wind. Sea breezes are only due around mid-afternoon and this should provide improving conditions all day before becoming bumpy later.

The swell will ease from today, reaching a low point and coming in at 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east.

Moving into Sunday and our large, powerful S/SW groundswell from a 'bombing' low that's currently south of the country is on track.

The low dropped over 24hPa within 24 hours, and as a result we're seeing a great fetch of storm-force W/SW winds being generated, moving slowly east through our southern swell window.

The swell is due to arrive around dawn Sunday, building rapidly through the day and peaking to 6-8ft on the Surf Coast and 10ft to the east, easing from 4ft+ and 6ft respectively on Monday morning.

Local winds are now looking a little better for Sunday, variable though tending E/SE-SE on the Surf Coast through the morning, S'ly to the east ahead of fresher S/SE sea breezes.

Monday looks average with a moderate S/SE breeze as the swell eases and lingering S'ly winds on Tuesday.

Later in the day Tuesday a new pulse of mid-period SW swell is due, with it peaking Wednesday morning though with gusty S/SW winds. It'll be generated by trailing weak frontal activity on the polar shelf, with the Surf Coast magnets due to hold 3ft, with 4-5ft sets to the east.

It looks like we'll see winds slowly shift S/SE-E/SE and strengthen through the end of the week as a strong high slides in from the Bight, squeezed by a deepening trough in the Tasman Sea. This will generate poor levels of SE windswell with no real decent sized energy due from the Southern Ocean. So with this in mind make the most of the lighter winds on the weekend. Have a good one!