Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th November)

Best Days: Today on the beaches, tomorrow on the beaches, Wednesday early afternoon ahead of the change on the beaches, Surf Coast Thursday morning, Friday morning on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, easing swell tomorrow with E/NE-E tending NE winds, variable to the east later and S/SW to the west
• Small-mod sized mid-period SW swell building Wed PM with fresh N/NE winds (NW to the east), giving into a S/SW change late AM to the west (into the PM to the east)
• Swell holding Thu with variable winds to the west, light S/SW-S to the east, freshening into the PM
• Easing swell Fri with NE tending S/SE winds
• Tiny Sat with fresh S/SW winds
• Moderate sized mid-period W/SW swell building Sun with strengthening S/SW winds, persisting from the SW Mon
• Plenty of swell next week with persistent SW winds Tue, possibly W/NW Wed AM

Recap

Poor conditions for the weekend with strong onshore winds to kick off Saturday along with easing levels of swell, improving a little into the afternoon as winds eased. Yesterday was then poor with a shift in winds to the south-east with a couple of options to the east for the desperate.

This morning is much better with a mix of easing SE windswell on the Surf Coast and new mid-period SW swell to the east, coming in at 2ft and 3ft+ respectively. Conditions will remain favourable for the beaches for most of the day, with winds tending E/SE-E later afternoon.

Finally, a clean looking ocean

This week and weekend (Nov 7 – 12)

The coming week is flukey wind and swell wise, with the exposed beaches being the pick when winds are favourable and offshore.

Tomorrow morning will be another fun one for the beaches, though size wise the swell will be a touch slower and smaller and to an infrequent 2ft on the sets across the Surf Coast magnets with 3ft sets to the east.

An E/NE-E wind will favour the beaches to the east, tending NE into the early afternoon and then variable towards the evening as a SW change moves in across the west.

Winds look to revert back to the N/NE on Wednesday morning, light NW to the west but a trough will bring a S/SW change later morning to the west, pushing further east into the afternoon.

At the same time as the trough and change arrive, a new mid-period SW swell is expected to fill in, generated by a polar frontal system that's currently south of Western Australia.

Fetches of strong W/NW winds should generate a small bump to 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 4ft+ to the east later Wednesday, holding Thursday morning.

Thursday's winds are tricky with a variable breeze likely on the Surf Coast in the morning, light S/SW-S to the east, freshening through the day.

Friday morning should be cleaner but with small, fading levels of swell back from 2ft on the Surf Coast on the magnets and 3ft to the east.

Moving into the weekend, the swell will reach a low point on Saturday as freshening S/SW winds develop thanks to a high sitting under Western Australia, extends an arm out to the east while polar fronts squeeze its south-eastern flank, under Tasmania.

This will see S/SW winds strengthening further Sunday and persisting early next week, writing-off the surf for the entire weekend/early next week while spoiling a new, moderate sized mix of mid-period W/SW-SW swells.

There'll be no lack of size thanks to the polar activity generating healthy swells but the local winds are the main problem, with periods of lighter W'ly winds on the Surf Coast a possibility through early-mid next week. We'll have a clearer idea on this Wednesday and Friday.