Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Rapidly improving conditions Thurs with lighter winds and easing surf
• Small and clean west of Melbourne on Fri
• Generally average weekend, though with plenty of swell
• Next week has swell potential but winds look dicey right now

Recap

Surf size has been a fraction under forecast expectations at times over the last two days, building from 3ft up to 4ft west of Melbourne on Tuesday and then easing back a little overnight. Tuesday saw clean conditions under freshening offshore winds, but an early window of W/NW winds this morning has reverted to SW gales this afternoon with a passing front. East of Melbourne has been bigger, and more wind affected.

This week (May 4 - 5)

No major change for the rest of the week. 

Today’s gusty onshore wind is expected to rapidly ease into Thursday, so surface conditions should improve quite a bit. The lingering synoptic wind will be light onshore but we should see topographical influences along the Surf Coast steering the breeze around to a light W/NW.

This won’t be strong enough to iron out all of the wobbles from today’s wind but things will certainly get better as the morning progresses.

As for swell, another small round of energy should fill in on top of the existing noisy groundswell/windswell combo tonight, though it won’t be any bigger than what we’re seeing, and surf size will ease throughout the day from 3-4ft to 2-3ft west of Melbourne. Expect bigger, more wind affected surf east of Melbourne with small options inside sheltered corners. 

On Friday, we’ll see even smaller surf settle across the region, and fresh NW winds will confine the best waves to the Surf Coast where size will be around the 2ft+ mark early at the swell magnets, becoming smaller throughout the day. Options will be limited east of Melbourne under these winds and without enough size for protected locations. A late W’ly change is due, probably after dinnertime.

This weekend (May 6 - 7)

Local winds don’t look very good this weekend. 

Friday’s late frontal passage will evolve into a deepening Tasman Low just east of Bass Strait, which will steer southerly winds into the Victorian coastline both days. 

The timing and strength of the wind regime is still up for review, but the most optimistic outlook sees a period of lighter conditions on Saturday - and therefore a chance for localised W’ly winds west of Melbourne - before Sunday experiences strengthening southerlies. 

The only favourable aspect of the weekend is that a decent swell will accompany these winds, generated by an earlier incarnation of Friday’s front (currently developing well south of the continent, see below). This should generate 3-4ft+ surf west of Melbourne and 4-6ft surf to the east, but surfable options will be severely limited under current airstream expectations. Saturday is really out best chance at the moment.

Friday will allow the opportunity to scrutinise the wind outlook more closely and identify potential windows of opportunity, so let’s take a look then.

Next week (May 8 onwards)

Sunday’s suggested Tasman Low hints at the development of a regional block, which may steer a passage of strong fronts to the south early next week, reducing their size potential across Victorian waters. That being said, strong activity in our far swell window later this week and over the weekend is expected to generate some really nice groundswell for the state, arriving Tuesday or thereabouts. However local winds are of concern at the moment. 

Let’s take another pass on Friday.