Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 1st May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong surf Tues with good winds west of Melbourne
• Brief window of OK winds west of Melbourne Wed before W/SW gales develop
• Rapidly improving conditions Thurs with lighter winds and easing surf
• Small and clean west of Melbourne on Fri
• Generally average weekend but there'll be brief windows of OK winds early Sat/Sun mornings west of Melbourne
• Stacks of wintereque surf for next week

Recap

Great waves over the weekend with 3-4ft surf west of Melbourne and 4-6ft surf east of Melbourne on Saturday, easing a little into Sunday but remaining clean with offshore winds. Size has rebuilt today and we’re now seeing solid 3-5ft sets west of Melbourne and 6ft+ bombs east. Conditions have been clean throughout with generally light offshore winds. 

This week (May 2 - 5)

We’ve got a lovely mobile synoptic pattern on the boil right now, which will deliver a prolonged run of quality groundswells throughout the state, along with periods of favourable winds. 

Strong surf will persist on Tuesday, ahead of a reinforcing pulse that’ll maintain size through into Wednesday. Without enough time to undertake a detailed hindcast, the model guidance still ties in favourable with Craig’s notes from Friday, suggesting around 4ft west of Melbourne with 6ft sets to the east. 

The only difference between the two days is that Tuesday will see better conditions under a moderate NW tending W/NW breeze, whilst Wednesday has a gusty W/SW change thanks to a fast moving frontal system. Wednesday morning may see a brief period of fresh to strong W/NW winds ahead of the change but it’ll be a slim window at best. 

Expect some additional short range windswell in the mix into Wednesday afternoon too, in the wake of the front.  Protected locations east of Melbourne (like Western Port) should have some small options after lunch though it won’t be an especially large swell so size could be borderline for some locations. 

Thursday will see a quick relaxation of the pressure gradient and thus a rapid improvement in surface conditions as winds swing back to a light NW. Surf size will steadily ease though size should still maintain 3-4ft sets west of Melbourne through the morning. East of Melbourne will probably be too big and wobbly, and it’s a fair chance that Western Port will be undersized. So keep your expectations low here.

Friday has another front on the way for the afternoon, though most of the day will see moderate to fresh NW winds and clean conditions. We’ll be between swells at this point, so expect fun though small clean surf west of Melbourne in the 2-3ft range. Most locations east of Melbourne will be wind affected. 

This weekend (May 6 - 7)

Friday’s late frontal system will be associated with a deep, slow moving low sitting at much lower latitudes than those systems influencing the region over the coming days.

It’ll generate a strong new swell for the weekend, but the position of the low, and a number of followup secondary fronts, will maintain a predominantly SW (Saturday) tending S/SW (Sunday) airstream throughout the region over the weekend.

As is often the case, we will probably see brief morning periods of W/NW winds in and around the Torquay region, so this will be your best time to surf both days. Wave heights should rebuild back into the 3-5ft range here, with 5-6ft+ sets east of Melbourne (again, possily a little undersized for anything noteworthy at Western Port, though it should be rideable).

It’s worth noting that the models aren’t consolidating the associated fronts (generating the weekend swell) very well at the moment - see below. If this happens we may see a minor upgrade in size potential, which will ultimately favour Western Port the most.

Next week (May 8 onwards)

More winter fronts are looking likely for the longer term, so a continuation of this favourable autumn surf pattern looks set to continue for some time. I can’t see things slowing down in Vicco for a while yet.

See you Wednesday!