Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 14th April)

Best Days: Today and tomorrow on the beaches, Monday, Tuesday, early Thursday Surf Coast, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswell for later today, easing slowly tomorrow
• Strong N/NE tending N winds tomorrow
• W/NW tending stronger SW winds Sun
• Inconsistent, mid-period W/SW swell building Sun PM, easing slowly Mon with mod-fresh but easing N/NW winds (tending N/NE into the PM to the east)
• Smaller, easing surf Tue with N/NW winds to the west, N/NE to the east
• Moderate sized + W/SW swell building Wed PM peaking Thu AM, with a possible reinforcing SW groundswell for Thu PM, easing Fri
• Early W/NW tending strong SW winds Wed
• Mod-fresh S/SW winds Thu (likely W/NW early Surf Coast)
• Variable tending S/SW winds Fri

Recap

Clean, fun waves on the exposed beaches yesterday with an inconsistent groundswell to the 3ft range, OK on the beaches for the desperate across the Surf Coast through the morning.

Today, a new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell is in the water with slightly lumpy but improving conditions on the exposed beaches, coming in at 4-5ft, while the Surf Coast is bumpy/choppy and to 2ft to occasionally 3ft. Winds will shift more E/NE and then NE while easing into this afternoon, favouring the beaches, with possible variable SE winds into the late afternoon or a LAGO.

Slow but strong sets this AM

This weekend and next week (Apr 15 - 21)

This morning we've got our first pulse of inconsistent W/SW groundswell peaking across the state, with a second, similar sized but possibly less consistent pulse due to arrive later today before easing through tomorrow.

The Surf Coast magnets should see very inconsistent 3ft waves tomorrow morning (2-3ft mostly) with 4-5ft sets to the east and a strong N/NE wind will shift N'ly through the early afternoon, favouring the beaches across both coasts.

Sunday will become smaller and a weakening mid-latitude front will shift winds to the W/NW through the morning, strengthening from the SW from later morning. Desperate surfers may find a slow 2ft wave on the Surf Coast.

Now, looking at the swell due later in the day Sunday but more so Monday from a strengthening but southward tracking low through our swell window on the weekend, and this looks minimal in size thanks to the low being quite weak and poorly structured.

We're not due to see any real decent swell generating fetch from this, with a tight fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds due to dip off-angle, south through our swell window.

I wouldn't expect anything over 1-2ft from this source on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east, but some long-range, mid-period W/SW swell is likely to provide better 2ft to possibly 3ft sets to the west and 3-5ft waves to the east. This has been generated by the earlier stages of the forming low, that being a strong frontal progression pushing up and across Western Australia.

Winds look to be favourable all day for the Surf Coast and moderate to fresh N/NW tending variable breeze, with improving waves to the east after lunch as winds tend lighter N/NE.

Tuesday will become smaller but early, local offshore winds (N/NE to the east and N/NW to the west) will favour the exposed beaches, possibly holding all day.

We've got more action due into the end of the week as a strong frontal system pushing up and under Western Australia generates a good, persistent fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our western swell window. As the front approaches us, it's expected to form a low pressure centre, possibly producing an additional fetch of W/SW gales in our south-western swell window.

The W/SW swell energy should build through Wednesday afternoon, peaking Thursday morning, followed by a SW pulse into the afternoon, easing Friday.

The W/SW energy looks to be 3-4ft range on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east, with the SW energy possibly pushing to 4-5ft and 6-8ft respectively. Winds on Wednesday will shift from W/NW to W/SW-SW while strengthening, with moderate to fresh S/SW winds on Thursday (likely W/NW for a period early on the Surf Coast).

This will be as a ridge of high pressure fills in behind the front/low, with Friday morning hopefully offering more variable winds as the swell starts to ease.

Follow up frontal activity looks to provide plenty more W/SW swell through next weekend and the following week, but we'll look at this closer on Monday. Have a great weekend!