Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 15th March)

Best Days: Today ahead of sea breezes, tomorrow Surf Coast, Friday morning Surf Coast, Saturday exposed beaches, Tuesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell building this afternoon, holding from the SW tomorrow with gusty W/NW-NW winds
• Slowly easing surf Fri with W/NW morning winds on the Surf Coast, SW elsewhere ahead of sea breezes
• Easing surf Sat with strengthening N/NE winds (tending N/NW Surf Coast early PM) ahead of a SW change mid-late PM
• Building mid-period SW swell Sun with strong SW winds, peaking Mon and moderate in size with strong S-S/SE winds
• Easing surf Tue with N/NE tending SE winds
• Smaller Wed with S/SW winds
• Moderate sized SW groundswell building Thu, peaking Fri with S/SW-S winds

Recap

Monday's pulse of S/SW swell eased back through yesterday with great conditions for the beaches, easing from 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east.

This morning we've reached a low point in energy with variable winds on the Surf Coast and moderate onshores to the east. A moderate sized W/SW groundswell is due to arrive through the morning and build to a good 4ft on the Surf Coast this evening with 6ft+ sets to the east. Winds should become variable across all locations through the morning and remain so until sea breezes start to develop early afternoon. Therefore there should be a fun window of building surf with decent conditions today.

Swell is on the way

This week and weekend (Mar 16 - 19)

This afternoon's building W/SW groundswell should hold in with size tomorrow morning while shifting a little more SW in direction. This is thanks to the low linked to it firstly moving through our western swell window before tracking east-southeast and more into our south-western swell window.

The Surf Coast should maintain 4ft surf tomorrow with 6ft+ sets to the east and winds will strengthen from the W/NW-NW thanks to an approaching mid-latitude front. These winds will be maintained through all off tomorrow, with it pushing through early Friday bringing a pre-dawn, fresh SW change. The Surf Coast should see winds tip back to the W/NW locally, giving into sea breezes early-mid afternoon.

Swell wise, the groundswell will be easing, and some weak mid-period swell should help maintain 3ft waves on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east, easing a touch into the afternoon.

The surf is due to drop back temporarily through Saturday and a weak low moving in from the west will bring strengthening N/NE winds that are due to shift N/NW on the Surf Coast early afternoon ahead of a SW change mid-late afternoon.

The Surf Coast should still be a fun 2-3ft with 4ft+ sets to the east, likely not changing much through the day.

From Sunday through most of next week, good pulses of mid-period SW swell are expected thanks to a flurry of frontal activity developing around the Heard Island region, pushing east and under the country through the Friday, the weekend and early next week.

The initial activity over the coming days will be elongated and not overly significant, with fetches generally below gale-force apart for the core of the system.

This should produce a building mid-period SW swell through Sunday, peaking Monday.

The Surf Coast should build to 3ft+ through the Sunday afternoon with 4-5ft sets to the east, only a little smaller in the morning, with Monday coming in at 3-4ft and 6ft respectively.

Winds on Sunday unfortunately look poor in the wake of Saturday afternoon's change, with strong SW winds due from dawn, then gusty S-S/SE on Monday as ridge of high pressure moves in from the west. This will spoil conditions unfortunately.

A rapid improvement in conditions is expected on Tuesday as another trough moves in from the west, swinging winds back to the N/NE with the swell still coming in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east.

Wednesday will become smaller but the backside of the trough looks to bring S/SW winds. So all in all it's a tricky swell working the local winds and peaks in size.

Into Thursday, a new pulse of long-range SW groundswell is expected but winds look to remain average and out of the S/SW-S. More on this in Friday's update.