Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 2nd January)

Best Days: Phillip Island and further east Thursday morning, similar Friday morning for the keen, Saturday morning for the keen exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Peak in moderate sized W/SW swell this afternoon, easing tomorrow with fresh S/SW winds
• Reinforcing W/SW tending SW swell tomorrow afternoon and Wed, easing Thu
• Strong S/SW winds Wed, mod-fresh S/SE-SE Thu (lighter across PI)
• Weak SE windswell Fri, easing slowly on the weekend
• Small, mid-period SW swell Fri
• Mod-fresh E/SE (possibly E at times) tending S/SE winds Fri, E/NE-NE tending SE Sat and Sun

Recap

Small peaky options across both coasts through the weekend, best on the beaches and biggest though inconsistent yesterday morning with morning fog.

Today, our much better moderate sized mid-period W/SW swell is filling in along with great conditions across all locations. The Surf Coast was a clean 2-3ft this morning with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula though a trough has just brought an onshore change, killing off the surf for the day.

Before and after this morning's change

This week and weekend (Jan 3 - 8)

Now that the trough has moved through, we've got a run of poor conditions and winds due through all this week as a high moves into the Bight and the trough forms into a low east of Tasmania. This will direct persistent, strong S'ly winds up and into us, fresh and S/SW tomorrow, stronger Wednesday.

Today's swell will ease off through tomorrow though a reinforcing pulse of weaker, mid-period W/SW tending SW energy is due to arrive through the day, holding Wednesday.

This is being generated by a weak low moving in from the west, deflecting to the south-east as the high moves in.

It looks to peak to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east but with those poor local winds.

Thursday morning will see winds ease a touch and shift S/SE-SE, weaker across Phillip Island but with easing surf from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft across the exposed beaches.

Friday will remain small along with moderate to fresh E/SE winds, possibly tending more E'ly at times through the morning.

A small, mid-period SW swell is due to steady wave heights, generated by a weak low skirting around the southern flank of the low but only to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east.

Moving into the weekend we're expected to see the high sliding south-east along with a deepening inland surface trough. This will tip winds E/NE-NE through the morning though the surf will be small and weak with SE windswell being the dominant signal.

Sunday looks even smaller with a couple of flukey background swells but to no major size and with light ENE-NE winds east of Melbourne, light SE to the west.

Longer term there's nothing too significant on the cards and easterly winds look to dominate, favouring spots to the east of Melbourne. A fun pulse of mid-period W/SW swell is possible Tuesday/Wednesday but we'll have a closer look at this Wednesday.