Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 30th November)

Best Days: Today on the beaches, tomorrow morning for the keen, Sunday morning on the beaches, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading surf tomorrow with variable S winds, freshening from the S/SE through the day
• New, inconsistent SW groundswell for later tomorrow, peaking Sun AM then easing
• E/NE-NE winds Sun ahead of sea breezes mid-late PM
• Moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW swell building Mon with local offshore morning winds, tending N/NE ahead of a strong S/SW change early PM
• Gusty S/SW winds Tue with easing surf
• Strong S/SW winds Wed and Thu
• Moderate sized W/SW swell for Thu

Recap

Poor surf across most locations yesterday with S/SE winds and a building mid-period W/SW swell.

Today conditions are cleaning up on the beaches to the east with a drop in swell back to 4ft on the sets, while the Surf Coast is only doable on the beaches and to 2-3ft for the keen. Winds should stay favourable into early/mid afternoon before sea breezes kick in.

Good sized sets with lumpy, improving conditions this AM

This weekend and next week (Dec 31 – Jan 6)

The size will continue to drop into the start of the weekend and conditions will be a little lumpy across all locations thanks to a variable S'ly breeze.

It won't be perfect but the beaches on the Surf Coast are due to offer 2ft sets with 3ft waves to the east, not helped by the big morning high tide. Sea breezes will kick in by midday, spoiling a new, inconsistent SW groundswell that's due to arrive later.

This swell should peak Sunday and was generated by a short-lived burst of W/SW gales in our far swell window earlier in the week.

Infrequent 2ft to possibly 3ft sets are due on the Surf Coast with 4ft+ sets to the east but with favourable E/NE-NE winds through the morning, giving into mid-late afternoon sea breezes. It'll be inconsistent so expect waits for those bigger sets.

Moving into Monday and we've got our stronger, inconsistent W/SW swell due across the state, with it generated by a great and broad fetch of strong to at times gale-force W/SW winds pushing east from the Heard Island region.

The swell is due to arrive mid-late morning and build to a peak into the afternoon, reaching an inconsistent 3ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets and 4-6ft to the east. Winds will deteriorate through the day though, with local offshore winds due to tend N/NE late morning ahead of a trough and strong S/SW change early afternoon. Therefore the morning will be fun but a bit smaller and slower.

This trough will unfortunately leave gusty S/SW winds on Tuesday which will strength Wednesday thanks to the trough deepening slightly to our east. A high will sit stubbornly in the Bight, keeping persistent S winds blowing into the end of the week, spoiling swells generated by polar fronts skirting around the southern flank of the high.

Winds look to persist out of the south-eastern quadrant into next weekend as a low forms in the Tasman Sea, but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend and Happy New Year!