Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 28th December)

Best Days: Friday and Saturday mornings on the beaches, Sunday morning, Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Weak mid-period W/SW swell tomorrow with fresh S/SE winds, easing Fri with NE tending S/SE winds
• Fading surf Sat with variable tending S/SE winds
• New, inconsistent SW groundswell for later Sat, peaking Sun AM then easing
• N/NE winds ahead of a early/mid-afternoon S/SW change Sun
• Moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW swell filling in Mon with variable tending strong S/SW winds
• S winds for the rest of next week with moderate sized W/SW swells

Recap

Well, our large W/SW groundswell built as expected on Monday morning with step-ladder sets quickly rising across exposed locations though a fresh onshore wind came to spoil the party mid-morning. There were a few selected locations for the experienced, but yesterday provided plenty more options with favourable winds for both locations and a steady drop in size.

The exposed beaches were a bit chunky early but settled into the afternoon as offshore winds freshened and the tide filled in. This provided great waves for the experienced. On the Surf Coast the swell eased back from 4ft+ with fun surf across both the beaches and reefs.

Today the surf was back to a smaller 2ft on the Surf Coast and to 3ft to the east and dawn N'ly winds have shifted W'ly ahead of a stronger SW change late morning so get in before then.

Solid and clean yesterday PM

This week and next (Dec 29 – Jan 6)

Today's change is linked to a weakening mid-latitude front pushing in from the west, and it's quick transition and lack of any major strength will limit the swell expected from this system through tomorrow and Friday.

A weak pulse of W/SW swell to 2-3ft is due on the Surf Coast tomorrow with 4-5ft sets to the east but winds will be poor, fresh from the S/SE as the front quickly clears to the east early tomorrow morning.

Friday looks much better with winds due to swing around to the NE through the morning along with easing levels of mid-period swell from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east. This will favour the beaches, with fun waves expected before sea breezes kick in.

Saturday will become smaller again and winds look a little funky with troughiness in the region. Variable winds are likely across both coasts before sea breezes kick in.

Into the afternoon Saturday but more so Sunday morning, a small, inconsistent SW groundswell is due, generated by a tight and short-lived polar low that formed to the south-southwest of Western Australia on Monday.

A brief fetch of gales should produce inconsistent 2ft to possibly 3ft waves on the Surf Coast magnets and 4ft+ sets to the east as winds swing offshore Sunday morning out of the N/NE. This will be ahead of a trough and S/SW change early-mid afternoon, offering plenty of time for a couple of surfs.

The weak nature of the trough on Sunday will see winds tend variable again into Monday morning and we should see some inconsistent but stronger mid-period W/SW swell filling in, peaking through the afternoon.

This is being generated by a broad polar frontal progression that's currently around the Heard Island region, with a fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds being projected east. The frontal progression will weaken once south-west of Western Australia, with the inconsistent swell due to build Monday and reach 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east. Winds are a little unsure for Monday but we may see variable breezes again through the morning ahead of a stronger trough and S/SW change mid-afternoon. This will spoil the new swell and leave S/SW winds into Tuesday, swinging slowly S/SE through the end of the week as a high sets up in the Bight.

We'll continue to see moderate levels of W/SW swell energy through the week but there'll be nowhere to really surf with the gusty S'ly winds. Therefore try and make the most of the cleaner conditions from Friday.