Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday December 26th)

Best Days: Selected spots for the experienced this afternoon, tomorrow, dawn Wednesday Surf Coast, Friday morning all locations

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large W/SW groundswell building rapidly this afternoon with freshening S/SW winds
• Mod-large swell easing steadily Tue with NE tending fresh E/NE-NE winds into the PM
• Smaller Wed with strong pre-dawn N winds, shifting W/NW at dawn ahead of a strong mid-morning SW change
• Weak W/SW windswell Thu with fresh S/SE winds
• Inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell Fri with variable tending S/SW winds
• Easing surf Sat with S tending S/SW winds

Recap

Great surf and options all over for the Christmas weekend with clean conditions on the Surf Coast Saturday morning with inconsistent 3ft sets on the magnets, better on the beaches yesterday morning with a new mid-period swell and favourable winds for most locations.

The swell peaked into the afternoon with a few biggers sets in the mix, but with sea breezes.

This morning we’ve got a temporary low point ahead of a large, rapid increase in W/SW groundswell that’s just hit the Cape Sorell wave buoy. Expect it to arrive mid-late morning and build set by set to 6-8ft on the Surf Coast through the afternoon and 10ft+ to the east but with a freshening S/SW breeze.

This week and weekend (Dec 27 - Jan 1)

The coming week revolves mostly around this afternoon’s large pulse of W/SW groundswell, generated by a ‘bombing’ low that formed to the south-west of Western Australia last Friday. Satellite observations picked up an incredible fetch of storm-force winds (below left), and observations from Western Australia confirm we’re looking at step-ladder sets and a rapid increase in size as the swell builds through today.

As touched on above, the Surf Coast magnets should reach 6-8ft later this afternoon/evening with 10ft+ sets across exposed breaks to the east but with a freshening S/SW breeze. Not ideal but workable.

The swell peak will be fairly short-lived due to the quick east, then south-eastward track of the low, with tomorrow expected to see steadily easing sets from 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast at dawn and 6-8ft to the east.

Winds will be favourable for locations to the east and out of the NE through the morning, possibly holding into the afternoon and freshening from the E/NE-NE as a weakening mid-latitude low pushes in from the west. This will create more options into the afternoon and evening as the swell drops and becomes more accessible.

Our change on Wednesday has unfortunately been brought forward, with pre-dawn, strong N winds due to swing W/NW around dawn and then strong SW by mid-morning. There won’t be much size left with easing 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ waves to the east.

Now, with the quicker movement of the weakening low pushing east over the coming days, we’ve got a downgrade in the swell expectations from this system.

An initial healthy fetch of strong W/SW winds projecting up towards Western Australia will generate some small, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell for Friday, but ahead of this on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday, we’ll see some weak windswell.

The Surf Coast should come in around 2-3ft with 4ft+ sets to the east Thursday but with fresh S/SE winds following Wednesday’s change, better Friday and variable (likely locally offshore) before another trough brings a S/SW change through the afternoon. The inconsistent mid-period energy looks smaller with 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft sets to the east.

Looking longer term and the trough will spoil conditions into the weekend with lingering S/SW breezes due both Saturday and Sunday. Swell wise, some small inconsistent mid-period energy is due with next week due to consistent of poor south-east winds and no major size. Therefore make the most of the coming swell!