Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday December 23rd)

Best Days: Keen surfers this morning, Surf Coast tomorrow morning, Sunday morning, Monday morning (selected spots afternoon), Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building today, peaking in the PM, easing tomorrow
• Moderate W/NW tending SW winds mid-late AM tomorrow, then S
• Modate sized mid-period SW swell building Sun with NE tending SE winds
• Temporary easing surf Mon AM with early NE tending S/SE winds
• Large W/SW groundswell building rapidly Mon PM with gusty S/SE winds
• Large easing swell Tue with variable tending S/SE winds (N/NE east of Melbourne in the AM)
• Smaller Wed with strong N winds ahead of a W/SW change
• Building mid-period W/SW swell Thu with gusty S/SE winds, easing Fri with E/SE-SE winds

Recap

Weak, small to tiny waves across both coasts yesterday, but into the afternoon the long-period forerunners linked to a new groundswell filled in, offering 2-3ft sets across the exposed beaches to the east under weak sea breezes,

Today the swell is building further with 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4ft waves to the east with workable onshore winds. Winds will freshen through the day as the swell peaks, creating deteriorating conditions.

New swell early this AM

This weekend and next week (Dec 24 - 30)

Today’s inconsistent SW groundswell will peak this afternoon, with the easing trend being slow through the weekend thanks to the drawn out nature of the frontal progression linked to it. Tomorrow should still be an inconsistent 3ft on the sets on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east, with a morning W/NW breeze, shifting SW mid-late morning, then S’ly.

Into Christmas Day, we’ve got our new pulse of mid-period SW swell due to fill in, with it generated by a small but healthy low forming to the south-southwest of Western Australia last night.

A small fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW-SW winds should generate a good pulse of size, building to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the exposed beaches. Winds will be ideal for the beaches and NE during the morning, giving into SE sea breezes late morning as the swell starts to peak.

Monday morning will see a temporary drop in size, back to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east and conditions will be good again for the beaches with an early NE breeze, shifting S/SE mid-late morning as a trough brings a change.

Now, unfortunately the timing of the change is right when a rapid increase in large, long-period W/SW groundswell is due, linked to a ‘bombing’ low forming east of the Heard Island today.

The catalyst for the ‘bombing’ low was a tropical depression being dragged south-east, into the westerly storm track from between Madagascar and South Africa. It’s dropping more than 24hPa within a 24 hour period and we’re seeing a great storm-force fetch of W/SW-W winds being projected east.

The low will maintain its strength into this evening before slowly weakening tomorrow, maintaining severe-gales in our swell window.

The significant fetch strength, track and captured fetch scenario will result in a large, long–period swell being generated, with it due to build very rapidly when it arrives, with step-ladder sets expected on the coast (rising in size set by set).

It should arrive later morning Monday and build rapidly through the afternoon, reaching 6-8ft across the Surf Coast by the evening, with 10ft surf to the east. The swell is due to ease through Tuesday but still be solid, dropping from 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east under variable winds. A N/NE offshore is expected to the east before gusty SE sea breezes kick in.

Wednesday will become smaller again and an approaching front will see winds become strong from the N’th before giving into a W/SW change.

The change will be linked to a strengthening mid-latitude low moving in from the west, bringing a moderate sized increase in mid-period W/SW swell through Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. At this stage the low will clear quickly to the south-east, resulting in poor S/SE winds on Thursday and E/SE-SE breezes Friday as a high moves in behind it. We’ll have a closer look at this Monday though. Have a great weekend and Merry Christamas!