Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 19th November)

Best Days: Exposed beaches for the keen this morning, mid-late morning tomorrow and Wednesday morning, early Friday Surf Coast for the keen, Saturday morning Surf Coast, exposed beaches Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, weak mix of background SW swell and SE windswell tomorrow and Wed, easing Thu
• Strong, easing E/SE tending E/NE winds, ahead of strong SE sea breezes tomorrow
• Fresh E/NE-NE tending SE winds Wed
• Light-mod E/NE-NE tending weak SE winds Thu
• Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Fri, peaking in the PM, easing Sat
• Freshening SW tending S/SW winds Fri (possibly W/NW early), with NW tending fresh SW-S/SW winds mid-AM Sat
• Variable winds Sun AM with smaller surf

Recap

There wasn't much to the SW groundswell due on Saturday morning with the Surf Coast coming in a little under expectations and to 3ft, with larger 4-5ft sets to the east. Conditions weren't ideal and best in selected spots to the east, similar yesterday morning with a drop in size.

This morning is smaller with cleaner conditions on the beaches though a slow 2ft to occasionally 3ft. The Surf Coast is weak and 2ft with a swell running from the SE.

Wobbly sets this AM

This week and weekend (Dec 20 - 25)

The coming week of surf isn't too favourable for surf at all unfortunately.

A strong high that's been dominating our winds and swell window through last week and the weekend is slowly moving east, and with this we'll see winds continue to clock more north-east over the coming days.

Tomorrow morning will still see strong but easing E/SE tending E/NE winds, giving into sea breezes from early afternoon along with very slow 2ft sets on the exposed beaches to the east and SE windswell to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast. The afternoon winds should kick up more size to 2-3ft but with very low quality.

Easing surf from 2ft is due across both regions on Wednesday as winds tip E/NE-NE during the morning, giving into SE sea breezes again from early afternoon.

Thursday looks to be a low point in surf and winds will be lighter, tending E/NE-NE again through the morning ahead of weaker sea breezes ahead of a surface trough and freshening SW tending S/SW change on Friday.

The arrival of the trough will be timed unfortunately with the arrival of a moderate sized SW groundswell.

This swell is being generated by a polar frontal progression that's currently just east of the Heard Island region, with a fetch of W/SW gales being projected east. We'll see the storm weakening into this evening, with the swell due to arrive overnight Thursday and build through Friday ahead of a peak into the afternoon.

It'll be inconsistent but sets to 3ft+ are due on the Surf Coast as it peaks into the afternoon, 4-5ft+ to the east but with those freshening SW winds. There's a chance for an early W/NW'ly but the swell will be slower and 2-3ft on the Surf Coast.

It looks like we'll see winds tip NW temporarily Saturday morning as the groundswell eases back from an inconsistent 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east, though another trough looks to shift winds SW-S/SW mid-morning.

Sunday morning looks to offer a window on the beaches with variable winds and smaller surf as we fall in between swell pulses.

Longer term, a couple of deep, powerful lows are expected to form south-west of Western Australia later in the week and into the weekend, generating some possibly sizey surf into early next week. Winds look to have an easterly bias but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.