Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st November)

Best Days: Protected spots today, tomorrow and Wednesday morning, Thursday morning Surf Coast, Friday both coasts ahead of sea breezes, early Saturday on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mod-large, mid-period W/SW swell building this afternoon, peaking tomorrow with fresh-strong W/NW tending W winds tomorrow
• Large S/SW groundswell for Wed with mod-fresh W/NW tending SW winds late AM
• Easing S/SW swell Thu with moderate W/NW-NW tending S/SW winds late AM
• Smaller Fri AM with light NW tending N/NE winds ahead of SE sea breezes
• Small, mid-period SW swell for Fri PM, peaking Sat with strengthening N/NE tending N/NW winds ahead of a SW change mid-PM
• Easing surf Sun with SW winds

Recap

Friday's fun swell dropped back through Saturday with an inconsistent reinforcing pulse of SW swell coming in at 2ft+ on the Surf Coast, 4ft to the east along with some sneaky, peaky mid-period SE swell in the mix.

The beaches were the pick with some spots firing with offshore winds holding all day.

The swell bottomed out through yesterday as winds strengthened from the west ahead of a vigorous cold outbreak. This strong, cold change is bringing a building low-period W/SW swell through today with 3ft+ waves reported this morning (Surf Coast )and more on the way as winds shift W/SW-W. More on this below.

This week and weekend (Nov 22 - 27)

The current strong cold outbreak that's pushing in and across us from the west had origins on the polar shelf, to the south-west of Western Australia last week.

It's producing a fetch of strong W/SW winds, followed by trailing SW winds, leading to today's building mid-period W/SW energy which will tend more SW and peak temporarily ahead of a larger S/SW groundswell into Wednesday.

This larger and stronger S/SW swell will be generated by a strengthening polar front being dragged up through our southern swell window this evening and tomorrow, generating an additional fetch of S/SW gales on top an active sea state.

While the models are showing a peak in size this evening through tomorrow, Wednesday will provide the most energy on the Surf Coast, with tomorrow due to come in at 4-5ft+ with 6-8ft sets to the east, while Wednesday pulse of S/SW groundswell should peak to 6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east.

Locally, winds will favour protected spots with a fresh to strong W/NW tending W wind tomorrow, and moderate to fresh W/NW tending SW winds later morning Wednesday.

Into Thursday, we'll see the S/SW swell easing and a W/NW-NW offshore will favour the Surf Coast. The size should drop from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east. Conditions will deteriorate into the afternoon with a S/SW breeze, while the beaches should start to improve into Friday as winds tend more N/NE during the morning and early afternoon ahead of sea breezes. An early light NW breeze will likely create lumpy conditions, so give it a few hours.

More manageable surf is due Friday morning, back to 2ft to possibly 3ft (Surf Coast) and 4ft to the east. A small, mid-period SW swell is due into the afternoon, with a secondary pulse for Saturday, generated by a weak frontal system moving through the Southern Ocean, producing a fetch of strong W/NW winds, and polar SW winds just behind it.

Small 2ft+ waves are due on the Surf Coast Saturday, 4ft to the east along with strengthen N/NE tending N/NW winds ahead of a trough and strong SW change mid-afternoon.

Longer term we've got plenty more swell on the cards for next week as a mid-latitude frontal progression starts to strengthen and push across us early in the week, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.