Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 7th September)

Best Days: Tomorrow and Friday afternoon exposed beaches for the keen, Wednesday next week exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent, small W/SW groundswell tomorrow with fresh E/NE tending stronger NE winds
• Slightly better, inconsistent W/SW groundswell arriving through the day Fri with fresh N/NE winds
• Building SW windswell Sat with W/NW tending strong SW winds
• Small, weak fading windswell Sun with fresh W/NW winds ahead of a late SW change
• Moderate sized S/SW swell Mon with strong W/SW-SW tending S/SW winds
• Easing surf Tue with S/SE winds
• Smaller Wed but good on the beaches with NE winds

Recap

Generally average surf yesterday but improving on the beaches to the east, best across Phillip Island. A mix of weak S/SE windswell and easing S/SW energy offered 2-3ft sets, 2ft on the Surf Coast but poor in the morning. Lighter winds into the afternoon offered OK waves for the keen on the beaches.

Today the swell is on the way to bottoming out, tiny on the Surf Coast and a slow, peaky 1-2ft to the east.

This week and weekend (Sep 8 - 11)

Looking at the end of the week and we've got an inconsistent W/SW groundswell due to arrive later today but peak through tomorrow, generated in our far swell window in the southern Indian Ocean late last week.

It'll be very inconsistent but should offer 2ft to possibly 3ft sets across the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island, tiny on the Surf Coast.

Winds will remain favourable for the exposed beaches and strengthen from the E/NE while tending NE into the afternoon.

This will be linked to an approaching mid-latitude low from the west, with it weakening as it nears closer Friday, bringing fresh N/NE winds as the W/SW energy eases.

The models are showing a bit more size out of the W/SW on Friday but this is due to a mixing of background swells.

We are looking at an inconsistent, reinforcing W/SW groundswell for the afternoon though, generated by another distant storm south-west of Western Australia on the weekend. Inconsistent 2-3ft sets are due on the exposed beaches east of Melbourne, well worth a surf with the persistent N/NE winds.

Moving into the weekend, and the weakening mid-latitude low is due to drop into our swell window early Saturday morning, aiming a brief fetch of SW winds into us.

This will bring W/NW tending strong SW winds on Saturday and an afternoon increase in windswell to 2ft+ max on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east.

The swell will fade into Sunday (1-2ft Surf Coast) as a stronger polar low projects up and towards us, bringing clean conditions under a W/NW offshore ahead of a late, strong SW change thanks to the low clipping us.

Now, GFS is going harder on this low compared to ECMWF as is always the case so expect the current model forecast graph to downgrade. What we're likely to see is the low projecting a fetch of strong to possibly gale-force S/SW-SW winds up and into us Sunday, generating a moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell for Monday to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east but with poor, strong W/SW-SW tending S/SW winds.

With the low quality of the swell and poor conditions it won't be anything special at all.

As the swell eases Tuesday, weaker S/SE winds are expected but this will create average, bumpy conditions.

Wednesday looks the best chance for a wave on the beaches with winds swinging to the NE but with smaller, fading sets.

A strong high will move in from the west mid-late next week and this will again block our main swell windows resulting in slow surf until at least the end of next week. More on this Friday.