Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 29th August)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow morning, Wednesday, Thursday, early Friday keen surfers in protected spots, exposed beaches next Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent, long-period W/SW groundswell arriving this afternoon, peaking overnight with fresh to strong N/NE-NE winds
• Easing groundswell tomorrow with strong N/NW-NW winds, easing and tending W/NW late morning ahead of a midday, strong SW change
• Smaller Wed withNW winds
• Inconsistent mid-period SW swell for late Wed, peaking Thu with N/NW-NW winds, tending S'ly late
• Moderate sized + SW swell Fri with mod-fresh SW winds (likely W'ly early Surf Coast)
• Slowly easing surf Sat/Sun with S/SW and S winds
• Moderate sized S/SW groundswell Mon with E/SE tending SE winds, easing Tue with NE winds

Recap

Great surf across most locations over the weekend with a reinforcing mid-period SW swell Saturday maintaining 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves on the Surf Coast (best on the beaches) with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, better into the afternoon as the swell eases.

Yesterday was smaller and back to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east with great conditions for the exposed beaches. Today we've got a low point in swell this morning, but our new, inconsistent long-period W/SW groundswell is due to arrive later morning and build through this afternoon (it's just pinged on the Cape Sorell buoy).

Sets to 3-4ft are due on the Surf Coast magnets by dark, 6ft to the east as winds hold from the N/NE-NE (fresh to strong in strength).

This week and weekend (Aug 30 – Sep 4)

Looking at the outlook for tomorrow and the main real change are the local winds, with a trough that was expected to bring an onshore change into this evening now delayed until just after midday tomorrow. This is due to the trough forming into a little low, meandering its way slowly east today.

This will see favourable, strong N/NW-NW winds tomorrow morning, easing and tending W/NW later morning ahead of the strong SW change midday/early afternoon.

Swell wise, our inconsistent long-period W/SW groundswell due this afternoon and evening should start to ease tomorrow from a similar 3-4ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft on the sets to the east.

Wednesday morning will see another low point in swell (2ft to occasionally 3ft Surf Coast magnets) and winds will quickly swing back to the NW, moderate in strength and then variable into the afternoon.

Later in the day we should see some new, inconsistent mid-period SW swell arriving, peaking Thursday ahead of a better pulse on Friday.

These swells have been and will continue to be generated persistent polar frontal activity around the Heard Island region and further to the east. Fetches of strong to sometimes gale-force W-W/SW winds are being generated, with an initial front generating later Wednesday and Thursday's swell while a secondary, front will hold its strength while projecting up towards us over the coming days. This will generate Friday's swell, with one final little low strengthening south-west of us Thursday due to generate a reinforcing pulse for Saturday.

The first pulse for later Wednesday and Thursday should come in at 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east, with Friday's looking better and to 3-5ft and 6ft+ respectively.

Winds on Thursday will remain favourable and from the N/NW-NW, giving into a late afternoon S'ly change as a trough moves in from the west, with Friday seeing SW winds unfortunately. There's a good chance for early W'ly winds on the Surf Coast but lower those expectations.

Unfortunately the final low moving in Thursday will become part of a strong polar frontal progression firing up south-southeast of Tasmania, stopping a high from moving in from west during the weekend. This will also generate some reinforcing S/SW groundswell for Monday.

Unfortunately without the high filling in from the west, winds will continue to spoil the surf into Saturday with a fresh S/SW'ly and a slight drop in size from Friday, smaller Sunday with moderate S'ly winds.

The high will eventually start moving east early next week, swinging winds to the SE on Monday along with the new S/SW groundswell which should maintain 3ft waves on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east. Tuesday and Wednesday look fun and clean on the beaches but with small, easing surf.

Longer term, an inconsistent W/SW groundswell is likely later next week but we'll look at this closer on Wednesday.