Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 9th February)

Best Days: Surf Coast for the keen tomorrow morning, Saturday late morning to early evening east of Melbourne, Sunday ahead of the evening change

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small-mod size pulse of W/SW swell tomorrow, peaking into the PM with light-mod W/SW tending fresh SW winds (early W/NW Surf Coast)
• Easing W/SW swell Fri with strong S winds
• New mid-period W/SW swell Sat with gusty E/SE winds, strengthening from the E/NE late morning and back to the E/SE later
• Building SE windswell Sat PM
• Mix of swells Sun with fresh N/NE tending variable winds (tending N/NW Surf Coast) ahead of a late SW change
• Easing surf Mon with S/SW tending S/SE winds

Recap

Light winds but weak levels of fading SE windswell on the Surf Coast and tiny to flat to the east yesterday. Today is even smaller with a trough due to bring an onshore change mid-late afternoon.

This week and next (Feb 10 - 18)

Looking at the coming forecast period and there's a bit more action now showing through next week but we'll have to get through the coming days first, with fun options developing on the beaches through the weekend.

This afternoon's change will be linked to a weakening mid-latitude low dipping south-east through our swell window and across Tasmania, with some small mid-period W/SW due to build from this source through tomorrow.

While not overly strong, a short-lived fetch of strong W/SW winds were projected through our swell window last night and this should kick up 2-3ft of W/SW swell for tomorrow on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft+ sets to the east. The swell looks to be a little undersized early, peaking from later morning into the afternoon.

The Surf Coast should see a light morning W/NW breeze while to the east a light to moderate W/SW breeze is due, strengthening across all locations from the SW into the afternoon.

Friday will be a lay day as a small high slides in from the west, bringing strong S'ly winds as tomorrow's swell fades.

We've now got a slightly better reinforcing pulse of swell for Saturday, generated by a secondary weak mid-latitude front moving in from the Bight today, dipping slowly east-southeast through tomorrow.

This should produce some new mid-period energy to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 4-5ft to the east again. Winds will be poor early and gusty from the E/SE Saturday morning, but swing more E/NE-E during the late morning while strengthening, holding until mid-afternoon before shifting back E/SE later.

These winds will also kick up some localised SE windswell on the Surf Coast, with both easing through Sunday from 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east. The exposed beaches to the east should hold fun size most of the day with a long-range, very inconsistent SW groundswell in the mix.

Conditions will be great for the beaches with a gusty N/NE offshore, tending N/NW through the day on the Surf Coast before a shallow SW change moves through early evening owing to another trough pushing east.

Come Monday the surf will be smaller and with lingering S/SW tending S/SE winds.

Longer term another mid-latitude low firing up under Western Australia is forecast to dip south-east and be absorbed into the westerly storm track, strengthening as it does so, forming into a strong polar low. This should produce a moderate sized + swell for early-mid next week but winds look poor and southerly at this stage. More on this Friday.