Endless bummer
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 21st January)
Best Days: Desperate surfers (which most are) Sunday and Wednesday mornings on the exposed beaches
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Tiny, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell building later tomorrow, peaking Sun with E/NE winds ahead of gusty S/SE sea breezes
- Tiny, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell building later Tue, peaking Wed with E/NE winds ahead of strong SE sea breezes
- Small SE windswell Thu AM with gusty N/NE tending W winds
Recap
The beaches east of Melbourne offered peaky, fun 2-3ft waves yesterday morning with a mix of easing mid-period SW swell and localised SE windswell. The Surf Coast was average and bumpy with grovelly options on the beaches.
Today conditions are clean across all locations but the swell is bottoming out with tiny waves on the Surf Coast and 1-2ft leftovers on the Mornington Peninsula.
This weekend and next week (Jan 22 – 28)
We're currently staring down a week of favourable conditions on the beaches but with hardly any swell at all to work with, even on the exposed beaches.
We're seeing a strong high sitting over Tasmania, with weak mid-latitude fronts pushing in from the Indian Ocean dipping south-east while breaking down. This isn't favourable for swell production at all, but one small, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell from one of these fronts is due to fill in tomorrow afternoon and peak Sunday (with a secondary for Sunday), possibly providing infrequent 2ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Into next week we'll see a secondary high filling in from the west, joining the one across Tasmania, while a slowly deepening inland surface trough across South Australia drifts south into the Bight.
This will push the blocking high setup further south, putting a stop to any potential swell producing polar fronts.
This will result in a whole week of tiny, benign surf, with no change in the pattern due until next weekend.
With the low moving slowly south through the Bight, squeezing the north-west flank of the high across Tasmania we'll see winds become favourable and locally light offshore tomorrow morning ahead of sea breezes. Sunday looks to offer winds from the E/NE direction ahead of sea breezes, NE-N/NE on Monday morning.
Tuesday may see lighter E/SE winds but there'll be no swell to worry about in any case, with winds back to the E/NE on Wednesday morning (with that inconsistent, tiny W/SW swell). On Thursday we'll see the trough from the Bight pushing east, bringing gusty N/NE tending W'ly winds along with a small, easing SE windswell on the Surf Coast from 1-2ft.
Friday looks to see winds shift SW in the wake of the trough with a possible small increase in windswell.
Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards, but a small, mid-period SW swell is likely next Sunday/Monday with winds out of the east. In the meantime have a great weekend!
Comments
holy shht i can;t remember a run this bad for a very long time. how's the paddle fitness going???
Pretty certain Huey has cursed us for having the wave pool
No waves for you! Ha.
Woohoo 30° for 7 days straight unless your stuck on the wrong side of the coast with southeast seabreez's. when was the last time we got a good run of hot summer days, 2017 2018??
2019, remember those scorching NW'lys, dust storms and bush fires?
Can't really remember, I remember the 2015 bush fires though, probably because I'm in western Vic not east. Think 2015 was hotter over Christmas. Is there a way to check the history of the exact temps recorded by the weather stations?
Poo man, I'm pretty sure you can get daily weather data by weather station on the BoM - going back decades
You have to email bom and request a data form apparently what a joke tbh
No you don't, all data is here.. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data/
Not one week in December 2019/January 2020 had 7 consecutive days over 30° in Melbourne. 20 years ago Melbourne would get up to 45°
True, we didn't get that hot through the 2019/20 episode.
And being in current place for 15 years or so, yep, I remember 43 and 44 on our parched north facing front yard, hasn't been anything like it in recent times.
Alright.... I have resisted the pile on til now. THIS IS FUCKED!!!
In 100% agreement. Reaaallllllyy faaaaarrrrrkkkkked
Summer weather patterns have changed in Vicco.
Growing up there would be a slow build up in temp until maybe 1-3 days in the high 30s with strong northerlies followed by “a cool change” which often was a thunder storm from the west with drenching rain for a day or so ... repeat ... slow build up etc
I first noticed this run of summer easterlies and south-easterlies for weeks on end and poor surf here about 20 years ago but it’s got worse, increasingly so, over last 5 or so years
The other change is we used to get at least a couple of good swells over summer that would light up all the well known reefs down here, can’t remember when that last happened
That's how i recall it too Guy. I reckon ~5 day patterns with a day or two of southerlies following the change/front, maybe the second of those being SE, the next day light and variable but offshore in the morning followed by an 11am sea breeze, day 4 NE or N and hot (and if lucky offshore all day with the stronger winds), and day 5 strong N and turning NW before the change. Or thereabouts. Obviously it didn't always follow this pattern but there would be at least half a dozen, maybe more of these cycles from November to early March. Less and less of these over the last 10 years I reckon with more and more easterlies/SE. Or am I looking back through rose coloured glasses? Craig or Ben it would be good to know your thoughts on whether if the data or anecdotal evidence supports this theory?
Yep there was definitely a consistent 4-5 day pattern back in the day. I remember when I was a grom and first starting to surf, my grandpa explained it to me pretty much how you remember it. He used to have an old barometer which he used to work out when the fish would be biting based on the cycle. Be good to see it back!
La Nina years:
1988–89, 1995–96, 1998–2001, 2005–06, 2007–08, 2008–09, 2010–12, 2016, 2017–18, 2020–22
If you started surfing in '90 it'd be five years before you had a LaNina ( short-lived ) and another two years before the next one and another fours years for the one after. So that'd be 15 years with only three shitty summers. If you started in 2005 you have had eight shitty summers out of the last 15.
So for the codgers out there that took up surfing in the 70s back in the day really was better :)
It seems so Guy. I started in 1979 and don't remember many seasons like this back in the day. The list of la Nina events says it all, they really screw us over. Longer term it seems like the high pressure systems in summer are travelling lower so we get more easterlies than northerlies. An effect of rising sea temp?
Yep, you shoulda been there, Ha
I only remember last summer and this summer be sooo dismal. I've always managed to get pretty good beachbreak waves during summer period in previous years, though to be fair you'd still need to travel and chase it, otherwise it'd be a long wait for Autumn.
thats some great stats spinafex. i got my drivers licence in sep 97. surfed alot more in 98 being able to drive down and was always getting rubbish surf. make sense now:)
Guys don’t worry the waves have turned off while I’ve torn my mcl. I’ll assure you in 2 weeks once it’s heeled there will be waves again. I’ll even give you a date the 10th of feb surfcoast will be 4ft and NW wind
hmmm let us in on that secret....normally it works the other way round for me.
hahahaha usually its the other way around.. good swell when your out of action... good when your back
Between the mid 80's until around 15 or so years ago I would go down south regularly between November and April.
During those months you would get plenty of weather systems that would deliver 3 or 4 days consecutive of N to NE wind. Leave the 1st day for it to clean up then happy days for the next 2 or 3 days until it went strong North and the next SW front came through.
Would go down and surf for 2.....sometimes 3 days in a row. Sometimes staying down there and others just driving back and forth from Juc each day. Those systems used to spread the crew out too as it was on for a few days.
Doesn't happen now. One day in the N to NE sector then straight back to on/cross shore. For that small window when it's on now in these times it's pretty well always crowded. So glad I've had countless pumping days in that part of the world in days gone by.
Rare as rocking horse shit now.
And I've grown up in South Australia with that crapper period you explained. 6 days onshore from the S/SE swinging NE for a morning and then back to the S/SE.
Exactly what it's doing now, the never ending easterly reigns for at least 3 months. The NE days have an easterly cross swell that ruins the wave face.
The highs are higher, lows lower and the resulting gradient between the two is steeper. So a blocking high blocks even better than it did before ... Is this what's happening ???
They over exaggerated it and say it's due to global warming
ringy, part of my youth was Geraldton here and summer would be onshore for 6 weeks straight, this never ending southerly.
Last 2 summers on SC have been incredibad, but I've seen worse! This summer is better than last as it does all week onshore, then there's a day of NE or maybe N - if you are lucky, 2. The waves are tiny in this time.
If Ben has another site called 'Kitenet' I reckon they'd be in raptures
Same, except early to mid 90s was when I started regular DS sojourns. I had my first child 13 years ago, making those trips less frequent, and shorter (day trips or short overnight strike missions as opposed to multiple nights camping) coinciding with the deteriorating patterns. Double whammy. So much more of a roll of the dice now when there is only 1/2 to 1 day where all the ducks are lining up in a row (bank dependent) and then as noted elsewhere on this page there is every chance you're dealing with the after effects of 3 days of strong ESE winds. And this summer, 1-2 foot of swell on those days. Faaaaaaaarck
Surfing on SC since 1986 I think. I agree with the above observations about an overall change, I can remember similar patterns, but they seem to now be more frequent and long lasting....much more easterlies, less northerlies
This is just ridiculous.
My son has been surfing for around five years.
Melbourne based.
Out if his group of around ten mates only one surfs and that kid is an absolute beginner.
There's so many distractions for them especially not living on the coast.
So after lock down after lock down and crap conditions for seemingly months on end his progress is so so so much slower than what mine was at his age.
When he has a good ride or two his stoke level goes right up there. I'm just hoping that like a crap golfer who hits one good shot, that'll be enough to keep his interest.
As for me, just my paddle fitness is borderline embarrassing. No big deal.
Hey Warri he'll appreciate it when he scores it good - probably make him keener overall. Trust me, growing up with Perth surf, when you found good wave you were frothing from the mouth. For my own son growing up, he grew up in waves I could only dream of at the same age. Paddle fitness is pretty ordinary here despite heaps of push ups/sit ups etc.
What a shamble. Some say last year was bad (scored plenty of waves last year, surf 16 days straight with one lay day in the middle in reasonable to really fun waves) but this summer takes the cake. Total horseshit. This years summer feels like Biff out of back to the future and it’s not getting any better.. Read the writing on the wall and booked 8 sessions at tullatub / chlorinesurf this week.. laughing. Officially retired from ocean surfing in Victoria this summer.
https://giphy.com/clips/BTTF-back-to-the-future-bttf-crappy-accident-g6R...
Clearly We’re all Saltwater junkies .
Love the caption Craig - can we start running a 'name the forey title' contest? Best suggestion wins a trip to a coastline facing a different direction
Aren't we supposed to get more frequent El Ninos with warming atmosphere/oceans? Are we seeing La Nina becoming more frequent?
5 or 6 day cycle is how i used to remember it too. Cool change southerly day 1 and 2, day 3 glassy in the morning, day 4 offshore morning arvo onshore - potential glassoff, then northerly day 5 or even 6 if youre lucky or wierd cloudy stormy day - cool change and repeat.
Forgotten what waves look like it’s been that long :’(
Assuming the Highs are centered further south these days,can any old timers confirm there's actually Less incidence of week-after-week of SW on -shores during Winter? Or is this just glasshalfFull thinking?
Definitely a lot less ongoing S/SW in Winter in recent years and less large swells.
Last year the wind was in the N to W quadrant nearly every day during Winter and early Spring. The swell didn't come to the party (on the Surfcoast) for a lot of that time unfortunately.
“The swell didn't come to the party (on the Surfcoast) for a lot of that time unfortunately. “
Same here on the hoax coast, NW winds and small to middling swells are a write-off here.
Yes, I would have to agree with how that cycle the winds would go through and then a cold front etc. mentioned by various people. Was especially good for those protected points along the GOR. Small clean runners, lots of fun although often crowded. Some good beach and reef days too. I've been on the SC for over 30 years and also feel like there are less swell events both summer and winter. Is it just that, 'back then it was better' mindset? I don't know.
The last 2 summers ( this one and last one )in Vic have def had long runs of very small swell ( 1 -2 foot beachies) Summer before that was the bushfire summer , lots of west/norwesterlies, heaps of swell , wind and rain and we were surfing the reefs all spring and most of summer - very unusual .
As a mate says all the time , " its weather, it changes " , week to week, season to season , year to year , decade to decade . There is no such thing as an average season , it's a series of extremes which are averaged out to create the illusion of an average season . Picture a graph with heaps of peaks and troughs then a line through the middle to create the average .
But if anyone out there has a way of getting some swell down here .........
Am I allowed to say I had fun little clean waves today with just the two of us on it? Was so much fun, with low expectations and some float.
Boobs around 11am?
It was around 11, but not boobs. From an hour to 2 hours off the low tide there was a little magic, and then the moment passed.
With covid I'm getting better and better at being hidden in plain sight :)
Watched a little wedgie nugget for a while around that time. Looked pretty nice. A bit more power than the size would indicate with SE kink hitting the bank at a good angle. A tweaked knee kept me dry though.
Wowsers! Busy
Any news on what happened down at boobs with the rescue?
getting pretty keen for a decent wave just quietly
I need to stop watching all the incredible Hawaiian footage coming out lately. Looks like they are having a run of just non stop amazing waves
All about to come to an end over there.
Just in time for the pipe masters?
Yep :/ Gonna be a let down after watching the Da Hui contest.
Are you basing this on long-range forecast Craig, or because Da Hui contest was exceptional?
Bit of both.
So the Pipe contest will run at 3ft Ehukai Beach Park?
Jeeeez.....wonder who'll win that..............
Yeah that would be a shame