Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 16th July)

Best Days: Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning Surf Coast, possibly early Wednesday Surf Coast, Thursday Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building W/SW groundswell tomorrow afternoon (more so late) with strong NW tending W/NW winds, SW mid-late afternoon
• Mix of W/SW and SW swells Sun AM with W/NW winds holding most of the day
• New, inconsistent SW groundswell Sun PM
• Easing, inconsistent SW groundswell Mon with fresh NW-N/NW winds
• Good SW groundswell Tue with strong N/NW tending SW winds

Recap

A continuation of tiny, though not flat conditions on the Surf Coast yesterday and today, with infrequent 2-3ft sets to the east yesterday, more 2ft today.

This weekend and next week (Jul 17 - 23)

We'll finally see a bit more size and energy developing across the Surf Coast from later tomorrow, but Sunday/Monday look the best of the bunch.

Our tricky and strong mid-latitude front that's linked to the late pulse of W/SW groundswell tomorrow and Sunday morning is now pushing through the Bight, generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds in our western swell window.

The front will continue to strengthen but project slightly east-northeast, north of our swell window this afternoon and evening, with a much weaker, trailing fetch of SW winds due to push in and across us tomorrow afternoon and evening.

This projection north of the swell window makes the swell size tricky to forecast (as shown right), but we should see a fun, though inconsistent W/SW groundswell generated for later tomorrow and more so Sunday morning.

The Surf Coast looks to be tiny all morning, kicking towards 3ft by close of play tomorrow, with building sets to 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Unfortunately a strong, morning NW tending W/NW breeze will swing SW into the mid-late afternoon as the new swell starts kicking.

Sunday morning should see winds swing back to the W/NW, likely holding most of the day as a secondary front pushes in from the west. Size wise, an early peak in W/SW groundswell should be seen to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east, mixed in with some local, lower period SW swell from the backside of the front.

Into the afternoon though, our new, inconsistent, long-period SW groundswell should provide a bit more size and power, generated by a strong polar low the last two days.

While inconsistent sets should build to 3-4ft Sunday afternoon on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east, peaking overnight and easing from a similar size Monday morning.

Winds on Monday will be great all day and fresh from the NW, likely tending N/NW at times through the day, stronger from the N/NW on Tuesday ahead of a strong SW change around midday.

Swell wise, our reinforcing pulse of SW swell for Tuesday has been upgraded, with a great pre-frontal fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds moving in from the south-east Indian Ocean due to be backed up slimmer W/SW gales as the front forms into a polar low, south of the country.

Surf to 3-4ft should continue on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east but surf the morning ahead of that change.

We'll see the frontal system linked to Tuesday's change bringing a sizey increase in mid-period S/SW-SW swell on Wednesday though with W/SW-SW winds (possibly W/NW early on the Surf Coast). We'll nailed down the sizes on Monday but Thursday looks best as the swell eases and cleans up. Have a great weekend!