Large, easing surf
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 23rd April)
Best Days: Saturday, Sunday morning Surf Coast, Monday morning Surf Coast, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning exposed beaches
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Large, easing SW groundswell Sat with fresh NW tending W/NW winds, W/SW-SW into the afternoon, smaller Sun with moderate morning W/NW winds, W/SW-SW into the afternoon
- Easing mid-period SW swell Mon with light to moderate morning W/NW winds, W/SW-SW into the afternoon, smaller Tue morning variable winds, slow Wed with local offshore morning winds (N/NE to the east, N/NW to the west)
- Slow and small for the rest of the week
Recap
The swell eased back into yesterday morning with clean, 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast, bumpy to the east but a new swell started to build into the afternoon with winds remaining favourable for protected spots.
Overnight Cape Sorell shot up in size and has peaked this morning with Significant Wave Heights hovering around 8m with Maximum Wave Heights to 10-12m, though we've just seen a reaching to 15.6m with peak periods between 18-20s.
Looking deeper at the spectral break down of the sea state and we can see these readings are made up of two distinct peaks in energy. The largest at 19s and a secondary at 13-14s or so. This shows that there isn't a pure swell of 8m @ 18-20s but more so a mix of mid-period and long-period energy.
The Surf Coast is seeing large 10ft waves on the swell magnets with a fresh offshore wind, bigger to the east and best in protected spots. We'll see the swell hold all day as winds ease and tend more W-W/SW.
This weekend and next week (Apr 24 - 30)
The prolonged nature of the 'bombing' low and secondary strong front pushing up over the top of it (responsible for today's large swell) will result in the easing trend being slowed through the weekend with large surf due to continue into tomorrow morning.
This and trailing, weaker frontal activity through tomorrow should slow the trend further into Monday.
Size wise we'll see the Surf Coast still coming in at a consistent 6ft or so tomorrow morning on the magnets, 8ft to the east, easing through the day and back to 3-4ft on Sunday across the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east.
The mid-period energy from the weaker polar activity should keep the Surf Coast around 3ft on the sets across the magnets on Monday, 4-5ft to the east, then easing Tuesday from 2-3ft and 4ft respectively.
Looking at the local winds and locations west of Melbourne will fair best with a fresh NW tending W/NW breeze tomorrow morning, then W/SW-SW into the afternoon.
Winds will ease into Sunday and be moderate out of the W/NW, shifting SW into the afternoon and increasing a little. Monday will play out similar with the best conditions found in the morning.
A more variable breeze is due into Tuesday morning, though not true offshore east of Melbourne, with lumpy waves for the keen on the beaches, smaller but cleaner on the Surf Coast.
There's still nothing significant on the cards for the rest of the week with the swell due to fade in size and power through Wednesday-Friday under favourable local offshore winds Wednesday, favouring the beaches (though only 2-3ft or so), smaller Thursday.
Distant, weak mid-latitude frontal activity in the south-east Indian Ocean will produce small, infrequent pulses of W'ly groundswell Thursday afternoon/Friday but with no significance.
Longer term a stronger progression of storms looks to fire up next weekend, generating westerly swell into the following week, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
this morning was epic, only 8 in the water out where i was, 8ft sets, snapped my brand new board on the last bloody wave. :(, hopefully the larger swell will still keep the crowds down for tomorrow
Always the way.....I go away and it absolutely pumps.
I think I'm going to crowd fund the next trip - I'm more reliable than any forecast.
So, it doesn't take two to Tango then. Just one AWOL.
And we’re all enjoying your absence haha
Not holding at my preferred high tide spot in Westernport this morning.
To low a high tide/too big a swell for said tide.
Still snagged a few amongst the wash throughs.
Definitely feel the 2 mixed swells energy there. Bit wonky.
T'was too big for me. Great watching some legends charge it though. 8-10ft with a few 12ft sets I reckon.
Surfcoast?
yep - my exact same summation WAG..
Westernport was the biggest and wildest I have surfed it for a long time. It was messy and powerful. Those walls of water often closed out with poor results for this scribe :-(. I got rag dolled twice and caught two waves and having survived two hours of that , it was enough for me :-0.
Ditto for me at my spot tee !
Though got a half dozen amongst the mayhem
That place is rubbish I am never going back. Burger King and all over the place. Tide did it no favours and the swell was really big and junky. One less is probably a good thing so it is all yours Plower.
I would not write off Westernport because of the way the incoming tide interacted with this big incoming swell on 23/4/21. As you know with surfing the conditions are different every time you paddle out. Usually at some protected spots out that way the incoming tide is useful and the best time to paddle out. Anyway you have a good surf session wherever you end up next time.
Settled down a bit by the afternoon, better winds too. Fair old crowd at the the protected spots but fun. Heard on the news there was carnage at Bells, a few injured and rescued?
a
Anyone hear of or see any of the CT crew down here between events. Plenty of opportunities for airs today.
Stumbled across a quick hit of some high definition footage here. Love Bells/Winki. Enjoy all u crew getting amongst it. It's a hell of a theatre when the swells up and that water starts to go that dirty brown colour.
Wow. Awesome footage!
Surfer injured at Bells (from yesterday)
https://timesnewsgroup.com.au/surfcoasttimes/news/surfer-injured-bells-b...
Hope he is recovering well.
The guy at The Button, yikes!
Which guy is you goofyfoot?
Let us all critique :D
None from me ld, sorry to disappoint hahah.
I was out from mid morning for a few hours.
Wonder how the guy on the button ended up? Scary situation
I think VL said he ended up ok.
I thought the wave at 1.15 in that vid was Shyama so thought there might have been some of you too.
Yeah pretty sure it was him, he was getting lots of waves
Can I just say kudos the guy getting the button treatment. Played it pretty cool and didn't make it look that bad. Never experienced it myself, but have built up a pretty solid level of fear for it - this makes it look somewhat manageable?
Agreed. That footage is from 500 metres away, yet you can still see the body language. It's resigned and experienced. It's given me a semi game plan if that god forsaken punishment from Huey were to ever fall upon me in that hell zone. What a nightmare.
Injured surfer is local shaper Shyama Buttonshaw. Multiple jaw fractures......
A few links of Shyama in W.O.T.D
Westernport Fri/Sat - up at 4am and paddled out in the dark at one of the fabled "protected spots" both days and got a few nice ones before dawn and the great ugly human mass. The line up got increasingly hectic with drop-ins, boards bailed, desperate stuff so I got out quick enough to remain grateful.
Bells - hats off to those that charged it, so much power and pain for hopefully equal reward. Have surfed it big but never that size, nothing like it, badly hurt my ribs falling off a Winki bomb once but nothing like the size of the last week.
Its good the on-line attention is on Bells coz there are so many other places (I can think of over 20 without much thought) on the GOR that would have light up like a 30' Christmas tree this past week. Unlike the MP where is focused on those fabled protected spots and Stok's secret spots.
People diss those protected bay spots but i wish we had those options on the Island, because when its blowing westerly and a big swell hits there is hardly any options, no matter if you want to surf challenging waves or something playful.
Cant complain though for much of the year when guys on the west coast are complaining about any wind with east in it, we still get plenty of fun waves even if south east.
If the wind is co operating then the north side of the Island has good options esp. if the Bass Strait side is too big, wild and messy.
True that info but I’d question whether WP really has challenging waves; there are some reefs that can light up but nothing like the west coast, and WP is so over baked that it’s crowded on a tinny’s wake
Yeah didnt mean there was challenging options in the bay but more that there is still options for clean surfable waves, while down the island in these conditions our options are just so limited, which kind of sucks as it always feels these swells go to waste.
But hey you cant have everything, there is worse and far less consistent places to live.
Agreed indo, then again way way down SE from you, there are waves, very very long walk in/out with all your gear for the required overnighter or you could boat it ...
Looked like a cracker weekend of more accessible surf on the coast!
The swell hit up here on the East Coast very nicely. Powerful, long-lined sets and with 10/10 conditions yesterday morning.
What a run that was. Craig, congratulations are in order, you whipped that up perfectly. What was it, 2 weeks, 3 weeks of being in a swell train? I haven't been here for a bit as too preoccupied with the surf (or trying to heal/stretch/massage self back into fighting shape every day - came into the swell coming off a flu and with much reduced paddling/breath so have been rebuilding). Jokes aside on the forecasting/delivering, that had to be a long wave trough in our favour (I was slack, never checked it). End of la Nina have anything to do with it?
Memories - the first big Sunday swell, standing up on the cliff at the putt-putt course, the winds just smashing in and you could lean full-body against them; and seeing 12ft, maybe bigger lines just come up, visibly darkened about halfway to the horizon and then exploding... The wash into the creek with that swell that brought a family of eels in the river...
Trying to surf every day, but Friday 23 was too big on the exposed side for this punter. Was Friday 23 the ex-cyclone mixed with a front, or was that the week before? Big tip 'o the hat to those who went out at Bells including goofyfoot! There was something curious about it, the timing of the sets seemed to permit decent lulls between them which may have caused the unwary to sit a bit far inside - noticed the arvo crew at one spot cop an 8ft set on the head, and it broke such a distance further out, equal to the whitewater of the existing lineup. Big kudos to the morning crew surfing this spot, one bloke on a looong board I saw catch a wave all the way in, when he straightened out on the inside it stood up triple head above him before detonating.
The lulls - so when I did get out the next day it was timed well and remarkably easy... getting into the lineup a real set came in and wow! Probably 6ft, with the upper 3ft of it standing vertical. It's quite magnificent, it isn't a pyramidical shape as such but more a large rough prism a couple of hundred yards long coming at you. A couple of crew were sitting way out, acting as indicators. Got into some and they would stand up so nice, you are looking straight down, bottom turns were bliss, high lines, cutties - so much fun. Big long rides. Took a 7'4" and already thinking of making up a 7'10"...
The distances (and water moving around) are a different point to growing up in WA where powerful reefs can be close to shore - like taking a tennis court and stretching it to the length of a footy oval. Hence bigger boards, for paddle out, paddle in. Or maybe that's just me getting old and non-pro.
What a swell event.
edit: udo I haven't forgotten getting pics of the old HB concaves, just yet to get round tuit
LWT action VJ and great post!
Nice wrap-up VJ. Has been a great run.
Yeah great wrap VJ...and as for those lulls....i tried to warn ya's from the West!! Awesome read mate and glad you got amongst it and are on the mend. Yew!
BD, what did you notice about it in the West? You are south coast WA? (Hardcore)
Hey VJ. Sorry just saw your post.
Nah not very hardcore at moment. Out of water with tweaked nerve in neck. Tried to surf last week and couldn't even stand up on board. No power in arm. Slowly healing though. But i took photos....have a little photography website over here.
The thing i noticed was just how strong it seemed....it seemed like it had that new building swell look to it but over the two days. Just really bullocking through. The other thing was the way it would dip through the day and then rebuild again to same if not bigger size. Was spectacular to watch at least!!
Get well soon BD, heal that one up properly. Sometimes injury can present opportunities to appreciate the swells differently, you can time them, triangulate them, etc. Significant illness or injury can lead to changes in life for later benefit, eg taking up yoga, learning to design things, etc. So good luck mate, & come back better :)
Yep the strength - I reckon the swell that came off the combined cyclone/front was really fast in the water? Or am I tripping? Is it possible to have two swells of the same size, but one moves quicker? Surely it is?
I notice some swells have different characteristics, some are just full on with sets and others have lulls, some are accessible, some unrelenting, some have a certain "feel" when you are in the water. I liked the "feel' of the most recent one as it ebbed, & liked how it threw up waves way bigger than the rest of the swell train - intermittent, but not rare. And like you say, some swells can pulse, back off, pulse again. There was one in 2016 I think that was about 10ft but it was just monstrous, I was recovering from significant health problem, so watched from the dunes at Impossos. The sweep was horrendous, and a handful of chargers made it out by paddling out waay to the west of the lineup they wanted to get to. Another time a big swell with a strong westerly wind, the young one and I went through the wringer and just got swept past that inner reef into the beachy at about double head+, just got drilled and spat out on the shore/in the river! And another one years ago, north of Lanno, paddled out at 3ft and it was 4-5ft within an hour and just surging in and the initial takeoff was just boiling whitewater.
For Victoria there were two components to the swell with an initial storm-force fetch within the low proper (long-period energy) then the secondary front adding lots of additional size and slightly lower-period energy.
CheersVJ. Appreciate that. Yeah, good chance to get that foundational fitness back in check. Went from being one of the best paddlers in the water to the tortoise all in the space of 3 weeks. ha. Actually have started paddling on the inlet again and i'm getting there slowly. And i can hit the dart board again, which wasn't possible 2 weeks ago. Cheers for your feedback.
And those days you mentioned sounded spectacular. Theres something about that whole coastline when it roars to life. Crazy you got a proper flushing into the river! ha. Amazing hey!
Actually interesting point about swell intensities. Something i have wondered for a while that occured to me on two different swells in Fiji, and something i'm gonna struggle to verbalise...anyway, i'll try.
If there's two completely different swells, say of 16 seconds. The first swell comes from a storm, in this case one of those classic Fiji swells from deep in the southern ocean then, swings up towards fiji through the gap in the ditch to NZ, where as the second swell comes from a much closer source, say an ECL that's drifted off the East Coast Nth towards Fiji, but the two somehow end up with the same period due to a mix of circumstances (which i'm not even sure is possible...is period a fixed number on the exact distance a swell travels...i would have thought it's a combo of distance and energy), anyway, to get to my point, i found the swell that was closer to Fiji, with the same period to have way more intensity than the longer distance swell of the same period. Wondering if there's something in that.
BTW, using East Coast low as an example for a 16 second swell in Fiji is probably a bad example, but i do recall a swell from alot closer than the Southern Ocean still pumping in at 16 seconds.
g'day Craig, as a premium SN member where should I first see these reports?
Hey Guy, go into your profile and click the box to subscribe to Victorian Forecaster Notes emails.
Thanks Craig, I have already done that a long time ago, is there a problem with the email link between SN and me maybe?
Our mailout system says you were sent the Vic FC Notes at 9:42am.
Therefore, this has to be an tech problem at your end.. very likely so too, as I responded to your support request email last week and didn't hear back (which means you may not have received that either).
Have you checked your SPAM folder? Please also add [email protected] to your contacts, that may assist.
Thanks Ben will do/ investigate- our hotmail acc was corrupted last year, very likely my end