Fun tomorrow ahead of significant swell Sunday
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 9th April)
Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow morning, selected spots Sunday and Monday morning, Tuesday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Fun SW swell tomorrow with fresh morning W/NW winds
- Oversized SW groundswell Sun with strong SW winds, easing Mon from the S/SW with fresh, easing SW winds
- Easing S/SW swell Tue with freshening N winds
Recap
Clean, good 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast yesterday with really fun 3-4ft sets to the east, while today a cold change has moved through with a building mid-period swell and bumpy waves for the keen west of Melbourne.
This weekend and next week (Apr 10 - 16)
The front linked to today's change in weather is bringing a mid-period increase in size today, but there'll be a slightly stronger pulse of swell for tomorrow morning, generated by the earlier stages of the front, on the polar shelf south of Western Australia.
This should provide good 3ft waves across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft set to the east under a fresh, morning W/NW breeze. Winds will shift W/SW into the afternoon so surf before lunch.
We then look at the oversized, long-period SW groundswell from the 'bombing' low that's currently slowly weakening while projecting north-east towards us today.
Satellite observations confirm a great fetch of storm-force W/SW winds in our swell window and this will continue today, weakening very slightly over the coming 24 hours as it projects right up and into Tasmania and our state tomorrow evening.
The strength, projection and pace of the storm will see an oversized, consistent and dangerous swell generated, filling in Sunday and peaking through the day to 8-10ft across the Surf Coast swell magnets, with surf to 12ft on the deepwater reefs to the east but with a strong SW breeze.
As touched on earlier this week, Monday won't offer any real respite to the onshore breeze with a fresh, but easing SW wind as the swell eases out of the S/SW from 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft range to the east.
Tuesday is still the pick as winds swing around to the N, strengthening through the day as the swell eases 3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east.
Into Wednesday stronger N tending W/NW winds will move in as the swell bottoms out and ahead of a the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Seroja (from NW WA) pushes in from the west.
Seroja will be absorbed into the westerly storm track after moving south-east across Western Australia, combining with another mid-latitude low just to its west. The swell potential from both these systems look poor at this stage, with a mid-period increase in S/SW swell for Friday with a NW offshore. More on this Monday though, have a great weekend!
Comments
hey Craig. I'm out in Warnambool. When do you reckon that swell might peak out this way?
Be fairly similar to locations in Bass Strait. Probably mid-morning to midday.
Hi Craig,
Would there be any decent surf at Lorne this Sunday?
Sorry Hugh we don't give spot specific forecasts.
Sick! Time to hit up some novelty spots!
Mysto breaks to the Far East! Yew !
Looks good, hopefully get an early one in the morning before heading to the big smoke with the chief of the fun police, but on another note which has been annoying me since it popped up. Nothing to do with this weeks forecast..... just a quick question. Why the fuck do we have a St Kilda surf cam???
So you can watch bay surf and say to yourself you're not missing out.
To the moon!
Now 16.6m max
Don't remember seeing it bigger
Was just thinking that, biggest I’ve seen it. Point Nepean buoy going to be 6m+ at this rate. Why the fuck am I getting on a plane to the NT right now :-(
Getting close but no cigar. Biggest recorded wave to roll past tassie was 20m on 6th of aug 2012, prior to that 19.83m back in 82. We will have to wait and see what the morning brings.. Hail is coming in sideways where I’m at and the winds certainly don’t seem to be moderating in any sort of hurry
Max wave height 16.6m with Max period 22s. Pretty wild.
Two mile should have couple fun ones
Fun been the operative word
Pt Nepean Buoy 430 am 11.03 m 22.2 sec
Are all the surf cams frozen for everyone, or is it just me?
Yep, debugging now.
Back
Just a pile of 6-8ft junk on the S.C. Fishos is probably a human carpet.
Bit bigger than 6-8ft Ringy. Terrible conditions though. Good day to be next to the fire!
Lorne Pt got a early crowd
anywhere surfable?
A certain point break in the west which everyone knows about but doesn't want to talk about will be firing today. Other than that some fun but nothing special novelty waves
Wondering if it’d be too big? Regardless fuck driving more or less to the border
Shit sand though?
People worried they'll get a black eye or a punch on the nose from the locals if they talk about it?
haha. I see what you did there.
I think 115 was the count in the water.
At BNP???
You're shittin' me surely!
Or probably not in 2021
I think he meant Lorne.
Unfortunately not
First hand intel Frodge? Anyhow far from a secret these days.
Eye witness.
A lot of, ‘I’ve never seen it this busy’ & ‘biggest crowds ever’ in the line up and the car park.
Yeah I heard was really busy. Also 2 packed chartered flights from the peninsula to another locale. Crowding from COVID into even the remotest corners shows the quicker international borders open, the better.
Whoa. People missing out on international travel with money to burn? Also maybe lack of quality autumn surf and average summer must have crew pretty keen to get amongst it.
Zero from Torcool?
Cooked.
Took the early drive down to check the known spots on the MP. Just home.
Wall to wall cars in all car parks and stupid numbers of surfers in strong cross to onshore faaaarken crumbling shit surf.
Watched and watched and watched and didn’t see one 1/2 descent wave or face.
G’day Craig,
I have been looking at the Surf Forecast for the next week and noting the predicted wave height and the description of waist, shoulder and head high followed by multiple overheads.
According to the chart;
2 ft is waist to shoulder
3 ft … head high
4 ft …overhead
5 ft …1.5x overhead
6 ft … 2x overhead
8ft … 3x overhead
10 ft …4x overhead
Standing at 5ft 8” I do not see 4 ft as being overhead. I must be missing something fairly basic in the measuring system and descriptions. (which I have been reading and accepting for years now!)
Can you explain the relationship between the wave height in feet and the body parts description please?
Also, where is the height of a wave measured from and to in the forecasts? (wave front or back)
Is this same measure used in other parts of the surfing world, or are there regional differences?
It’s very much a regional thing. Victoria and WA for example use the Hawaiian scale (that you described). Qld will use the American scale (head high = 5-6ft). Helps them justify the use of skis I guess haha
Any reports on Bells/Winki today?
I watched Bells for about 30 minutes this morning. Needed a jet ski to get out and one bloke ferried about half a dozens surfers out into the lineup. There were some huge close-out sets at Southside making the paddle out behind Jarosites impossible or seriously dangerous.
The boys were sitting extremely wide (closer to the buttons than the traditional takeoff spot) and the waves were total burgers.
Size? Hard to tell because nobody caught anything while I was there. Winki looked more "organised" but you'd need a ski to get back up against the rip and there wasn't one.
Yes it was big, but there was no quality anywhere.
Thanks VL, good to hear from you
Must have got there a bit later than you VL (around 9.00). Car park packed with cars and people. Super windy and squally rain. Big, raw messy and fat surf - very hard to pick a good wave out of the mess. 3 surfers at Winki with a ski looking after them and towing back out but they were paddling; not towing into waves. Only saw 3 waves ridden over about 40 mins. Only one good one - guy on a red board going backhand - surfed it well but he got shut down and rolled. Under for about 10 seconds before popping up and picked up by the ski. Entertaining nonetheless. I 'surfed' at Lorne with about 100 punters. First wave I got dropped in on by a guy with a thick Spanish accent. We got tangled and I came up with a broken fin box. Luckily my fins (Fiberglass MR's) were OK. He was worse off - got cracked across the bridge of his nose. We both left the water. Him bleeding and me needing repairs on my board. Good times.
Pt roadknight? Addis? Inside the harbour at Apollo bay and few spots b/w Lorne and AB?
On the MP I’m hearing the one offshore and big didn’t get surfed this AM
VIC, you’re back son, good one
Didn't check Addis. Roadnight was too full and a mess, some punters sitting inside on the beachy, but I didn't get close enough to see what it was like. Didn't go past Lorne. Some reasonably good waves at Lorne. I only got half a wave and was taken out. Only packed one board :(.
Yeah checked out Bells and Winki at 1pm. Raw, massive walls and cross/onshore. Waves rolling through from Rincon to Winki. Never seen waves at Winki breaking that far out. No one out. Too big and messy.
I surfed in WP this morning for the first time. Plenty of swell getting in there. Victory at sea conditions at times with the howling cross / onshore.
You and the entire eastern suburbs I’d wager
Spot I was at had 10-15 out. Well spread. So no issues with crowd.
Whats happening with that huge Whale carcass
washed out to sea or broken up ?
After today it’d have to be in a million bits
The one on PI? Dorsal report mentioned a 5m GW at Woolies on Friday.
I watched a guy get swept for about a kilometer and then washed up in to the rocks at cathedral this morning. One guy towing cracked a few nices ones.
Ditto about sitting at Lorne point with a hundred others.
Jesus that's sketchy
roughly 50 sitting on lorne point at the moment, looks super fun but effort to reward ratio slightly skewed
Maxing Winki and someone giving it a huge crack..
Absolute Charger! Imagine if there had been a 10-15knot offshore wind on it overnight too straighten it out and hold it up. Must had been a similar scenario way back in '81. I guess
Fucking Waimea!
... ssshhh..
Wow!!
Woah. That's epic. I don't remember seeing anything bigger from Winki.
Saw a photo of rocks washed onto the road at port fairy must on Facebook
any more shots from winki? unreal!
Checked the St Kilda cam a few times to say, have to say I'm disappointed no one was giving it a crack. Was as big as it gets!
I checked it at dawn then watched the Masters for the next 4 hours.....
Some awesome footage of the Tassie ferry going through the Heads. Would have been a complete spew bucket by the time they got down there. Could not pay me enough to get on.....
Winki waves above are nuts!
Did the clifftop thing on the higher tide and the wind was bracing... leaning into it was pretty fun. Sea spume was being blown up the cliff like bullets. Size wise we thought the local beachy was 8ft - plus on a couple. Then overlooked Southside later at low tide and there were consistent big sets you could see a mile out, that unloaded on Centreside - bigger than the beachy still. No one out or on the bowl. Around town there were a few bombies you don't usually see lighting up, huge lengths of whitewater. The protected, surfable stretch was a bit of a circus. Size was big but the 2009 swell where I saw the outer bombie go, then on the same wave close out Bells the whole way along, still remains greater in the memory.
I'd hate to see the crowds around had it been remotely offshore. The frothometer just keeps getting higher and higher. Mate said Bells crowd in the carpark and up the road was almost like the Pro.
Surely if it was a bit more offshore there’d be way less people at all those protected spots mentioned above.
And the 10ft+ waves are still not gonna be that busy.
Yeah I can understand everyone keen to have a look at the ocean on a day like yesterday. It was a pretty wild show. Not something that happens every weekend.
And like you said surfing options were pretty limited
Yeah they'd be people checking out the large waves, not surfers surely?
Bit of both. Surfers on their way to or from somewhere else. Probably more non surfing spectators. Cars parked in the carpark, on the roadside and also some in the paddock opposite. Some could've been looking for the contest that wasn't there?
Ha, could be!
Bells
https://www.tracksmag.com.au/news/who-had-the-biggest-blls-535810
The only time the Winki/Bells car park ISN'T full these days is between about 8pm and 5am
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-12/port-fairy-big-surf-damage-sea-le...
Not small rocks!
Wowza!