Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 22nd March)

Best Days: Exposed beaches for the keen tomorrow morning, Friday all day for the keen on the Surf Coast, possibly from early afternoon east of Melbourne

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building tomorrow with E tending SE then SW winds
• Building W/SW windswell Thu with W/NW tending SW winds
• Small, mid-period W/SW swell for Fri with NW tending variable winds
• Fading surf Sat with N/NW tending W/NW winds

Recap

A mix of south-east windswell and pulses of S/SW groundswell for the weekend, cleanest on the beaches east of Melbourne but workable on the Surf Coast beaches for the keen.

This morning both the SE and SW swells have faded leaving small, clean waves on the exposed beaches.

This week and weekend (Mar 23 - 28)

Looking at the week ahead and the wind outlook has shifted around a little along with the timing of the mid-period swell from a mid-latitude low. This is due to the mid-latitude low that was due later week, now forecast to form south of WA and stall for a bit over the coming days instead of south-west of us.

We'll see favourable winds for the beaches tomorrow morning with E'ly breezes, shifting SE through the day and then S'ly into the afternoon as a surface trough off the East Coast starts to push slowly south.

Swell wise, an inconsistent W/SW groundswell generated in our far swell window is due to build through the day, kicking to 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula (tiny on the Surf Coast), but the morning is likely to be smaller and 2-3ft or so east of Melbourne.

Come Wednesday winds will deteriorate as a low forms in the trough just east of us, bringing strong S/SE tending SW winds as it drifts south, along with poor conditions and weather.

Winds should revert back to the west on Thursday morning ahead of the weakening mid-latitude low pushing in from the west, with a dawn W/NW breeze due to swing stronger W/SW and then SW through the day.

Swell potential wise, the low will be fairly poor with a small, tight fetch of strong to near gale-force W'ly winds forecast to be generated in our western swell window tomorrow, weakening as it projects towards us Wednesday.

As a result Thursday we'll see a weak, small, building W/SW windswell, with the mid-period energy from the low proper due Friday. Surf to 2ft+ is due on the Surf Coast, with 4ft waves to the east.

Conditions look clean though with a NW offshore during the morning, possibly tending variable out of the NE early afternoon on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of weak sea breezes. We'll confirm this wind outlook Wednesday so check back then.

Saturday should be clean again on the Surf Coast as a weak, approaching front brings fresh N/NW tending W/NW winds, but there'll be no swell of size or quality, more so tiny west of Melbourne and becoming wind affected to the east. A SW change Sunday will really kill things off with no additional increase in size.

Unfortunately next week will remain void of any major swell and surf activity until later in the week, owing to a troughy, unconvincing synoptic setup from late this week through the weekend.

There is potential for some better frontal activity developing mid-late week as a node of the Long Wave Trough strengthens south-west of Western Australia before pushing slowly east. This will bring the frontal systems and what looks to be moderate sized W/SW swells, but we'll have a closer look at this in the coming updates.