Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 19th March)

Best Days: Selected spots east of Melbourne tomorrow and Sunday mornings, exposed beaches Monday morning, Surf Coast Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• New SW groundswell building this afternoon with strong SE winds, easing tomorrow with fresh E/SE-E morning winds
• SE windswell building Fri, persisting all weekend
• New S/SW groundswell for late tomorrow, easing Sun with fresh morning E/SE-E winds
• Cleaner conditions on the beaches Mon with fading surf
• Onshore change Tue with a small, inconsistent W/SW swell
• New mid-period SW swell building Thu, easing Fri with SW winds, possibly W/NW Fri AM

Recap

Fun waves on the beaches most of yesterday with a pulsey swell between 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, 2ft+ or so on the Surf Coast and best on the beaches.

Today we've got similar sized waves across both regions but with more peakiness from an underlying SE windswell. Conditions were less than ideal as well on the Surf Coast, cleanest to the east.

A new pulse of SW tending S/SW groundswell is due this afternoon and we should see the Surf Coast kicking to 3ft with 4-5ft sets to the east but with sea breezes.

There's a chance the size could push slightly above this forecast size owing to the tricky nature of the swell generating 'bombing' low. Cape Sorell is looking healthy, but we'll see how we go.

This weekend and next week (Mar 20 - 26)

This afternoon's increasing in SW tending S/SW groundswell will peak overnight, easing back tomorrow from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east and winds look a little less favourable.

Beaches east of Melbourne will fair best both Saturday and Sunday mornings with a moderate to fresh E-E/SE breeze, stronger SE into the afternoon.

The Surf Coast will see small-moderate levels of SE windswell developing from these persistent, strong E/SE winds through Bass Strait, building this afternoon and coming in 3ft on the sets through the whole weekend, easing from 2ft to maybe 3ft Monday morning.

Our secondary pulse of S/SW groundswell for tomorrow afternoon/evening is still on track, generated by a similar though smaller and weaker low linked to this afternoon's swell.

This low is currently south-west of Tasmania, generating a fetch of W/NW gales on the polar shelf.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should see 2ft+ sets which will be hard to distinguish under the SE windswell with 3-4ft sets to the east, easing Sunday from 2ft and 3ft to possibly 4ft respectively.

We'll see conditions become cleaner on the beaches Monday morning as winds shift E/NE but the swell will be on the way out, with SE windswell likely to be more dominant.

Into Tuesday a deepening trough is expected to move in, bringing an onshore change, There'll be some very inconsistent W/SW groundswell from a mid-latitude front that's currently weakening west-southwest of Western Australia, but it'll only be small.,

A mid-latitude low forming further west of the trough bringing the change on Tuesday, west-southwest of us looks to generate some moderate sized mid-period SW swell for Thursday/Friday. Winds at this stage during the peak of the swell look onshore from the SW, possibly tending W/NW Friday morning as the swell eases but we'll review this Monday.

Beyond this the outlook remains patchy until mid-next week, though check back Monday for any improvements heading into Easter. Have a great weekend!