Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 10th March)

Best Days: Thursday morning exposed beaches, Saturday morning Surf Coast, Monday morning Surf Coast, keen surfers Tuesday, beaches Wednesday and Thursday mornings

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW swell over the coming days with variable tending E/NE winds both tomorrow and Fri AM
• New SW swell building Fri PM with sea breezes, easing Sat with a W/NW breeze, shifting strong SW mid-afternoon
• Weak windswell for Sun with gusty, abating SW winds, a touch stronger (swell) Mon with NW winds ahead of an afternoon SW change
• Good SW groundswell Tue but with S/SE winds, easing Wed with morning NE breezes

Recap

An inconsistent new SW groundswell filled in yesterday with clean conditions through the morning on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft sets, building a touch further into the afternoon but with deteriorating conditions.

Larger surf was seen to the east, and this morning we've got a drop in swell with sets to 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east with workable, lighter onshore winds.

This week and next (Mar 11 - 19)

We'll see the surf continuing to drop in size over the coming days but with better winds for the beaches, becoming variable tomorrow morning and tending light E/NE and possibly even N/NE (most likely variable) ahead of sea breezes. The Surf Coast looks to see SE winds all day.

The dawn session will likely be a little lumpy east of Melbourne, improving as the morning progresses.

The swell will be on the way out though, easing from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday looks similar wind wise, but the swell will be at a low point in the morning, ahead of a late increase in new, SW groundswell (with sea breezes).

This swell (which now looks to be more towards the groundswell category compared to mid-period energy), is being generated by a patchy polar low that's currently south-west of Tasmania, with winds speeds mostly only strong, but reaching gale-force at its core.

It's not ideally angled but we should see a fun kick in size Friday afternoon, with the swell arriving a touch earlier owing to the slight increase in period, building to 2-3ft by dark on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Similar sized waves are due Saturday morning as the swell starts to ease and an approaching front now looks to bring W/NW winds from dawn, shifting strong SW early afternoon.

Now, this front doesn't look to have much strength behind it, with a broad swathe of strong SW winds being projected towards us Friday evening and Saturday.

This will kick up a windswelly swell for Sunday to 2-3ft and and 3-5ft respectively across the Surf Coast and Mornington Peninsula with gusty, easing SW winds.

Another, stronger and broader polar front will push up behind Friday's system, generating a better fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our south-western swell window.

The front will be fast moving but acting on an active sea state, producing a better pulse of SW groundswell for Tuesday, pushing the Surf Coast to the 4ft range with 5-6ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Ahead of this on Monday some slightly better mid-period swell energy is due and the approaching front will tip winds NW, holding until mid-afternoon, favouring the Surf Coast. Tuesday unfortunately looks onshore as a high moves in behind Monday's change, bringing light to moderate S'ly winds.

Wednesday looks best as winds shift around to the NE and the swell eases back in size from 3ft and 4-5ft+ respectively.

Following this it looks like we'll see high pressure dominate our swell window as we push back towards positive Southern Annular Mode territory (pushing the storm track to the poles). This doesn't bode well for autumn fronts and swells, but with favourable winds for the beaches.

More on this Friday.