Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 22nd)

Best Days: Keen surfers Wednesday morning on the beaches, keen surfers Thursday and Friday mornings Surf Coast for small waves

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate to large W/SW groundswell for later this afternoon but with strengthening SW winds, easing slowly tomorrow with fresh to strong but abating S/SW winds, smaller Wed AM with light SE winds (E'ly at periods)
• Small leftover surf Thu-Fri with lighter morning W winds
• Moderate to large SW groundswlel for Sun with moderate SE winds ahead of sea breezes

Recap

A trough brought an onshore change on Saturday with a small, average and inconsistent W'ly groundswell. Not a surf day. A new pulse of swell was seen yesterday morning from a strengthening, south-east tracking mid-latitude low on Friday, producing 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast as conditions remained bumpy.

This swell has eased into this morning with a light offshore wind, but our new, strong W/SW groundswell has just pinged on the Cape Sorell buoy and we should see it building strongly later this afternoon. The Surf Coast should hit 4-5ft, with 6-8ft sets to the east but with strong S/SW-SW winds in the wake of a trough that's currently moving through.

This week and weekend (Feb 23 - 28)

While the bulk of the long-period and strongest swell energy from the 'bombing' low is due to fill in later this afternoon, we'll continue to see plenty of size over the coming days owing to the slow moving and prolonged nature of the storm.

While the low weakened under the country on the weekend, we still saw fetches of strong to gale-force W/SW winds projected through our western swell window, with the system currently south-west of us, bringing today's change.

Size wise, similar, easing 4-5ft sets are due on the Surf Coast tomorrow morning, 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula, dropping more noticeably Wednesday from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively.

Unfortunately winds tomorrow will be poor with a fresh to strong S/SW breeze, easing later in the day, workable Wednesday and light from the SE. We may see winds tend more E'ly for a period east of Melbourne but there'll likely be a bit of lump left in the swell.

Thursday will become smaller and winds look to remain less than ideal, light W/SW-SW (W/NW early on the Surf Coast but small), increasing through the day.

Friday and Saturday look to remain small with a morning W/NW breeze on the former, S/SE on Saturday, and then we've got our new, long-period SW groundswell for Sunday.

This swell, mentioned the last couple of updates will be generated by another 'bombing' low around the Heard Island region, triggered by Tropical Cyclone Guambe, currently south-east of the South African coast, being absorbed into the westerly storm track.

As it does so it'll spawn a significant polar low, with a fetch of storm-force W'ly winds projecting through our medium-long range swell window as it tracks east-southeast.

The low will weaken south-southwest of WA mid-week, with the inconsistent, long-period SW groundswell energy due to build slowly late Saturday and peak Sunday to 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east. Winds look to remain out of the SE, possibly E/SE for a period in the morning Sunday, and then strong SW Monday with a change. We'll have a closer look at this in the coming updates through.