Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th)

Best Days: Beaches every day except Friday and Sunday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW groundswell tomorrow with E/NE tending NE winds ahead of mid-afternoon sea breezes
• Fun, mid-period SW swell Wed with morning E/NE winds, easing Thu with freshening NE tending N/NE winds ahead of late afternoon sea breezes
• Inconsistent W'ly groundswell Sat with variable tending SW winds
• Moderate to large W/SW groundswell for Mon/Tue but with SW-S winds

Recap

Clean, small waves across the Surf Coast Saturday morning with a weak W'ly swell, deteriorating from mid-morning with an onshore change. Yesterday was bumpy and average across all locations with small surf, building into the afternoon with the arrival of a new SW groundswell but only for the keen.

Today the SW groundswell is providing 3ft waves on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft sets to the east but with a continuation of bumpy conditions. Winds have improved a little for the beaches since, offering fun waves for the keen.

This week and weekend (Feb 15 - 21)

It's a week of winds out of the north-eastern quadrant, with fun sized swells and favourable conditions for exposed locations across the state.

Size wise, the incoming swells don't look to overpower the beaches, with this morning's swell due to ease this afternoon, further into tomorrow leaving 2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft waves to the east.

Winds will swing from the E/NE to NE through tomorrow, holding until mid-afternoon sea breezes kick in. Later in the day and more so Wednesday, a new mid-period SW swell is due to fill in, generated by some healthy, elongated polar frontal activity moving in through our swell window late last week and on the weekend.

The swell should peak Wednesday morning with 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets and surf in the 4ft range to the east mixed in with the rare bigger one.

Winds look to be more E/NE on Wednesday, giving into sea breezes mid-afternoon again, with moderate to fresh NE tending N/NE winds developing Thursday, holding until late afternoon.

The surf will be on the ease though, with the Surf Coast seeing a mix of south-east windswell, dropping from 2ft with easing 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday should be clean all day with stronger N/NE tending NE winds but the swell will be tiny on the Surf Coast and fading from a small 2ft or so on the Mornington Peninsula.

Moving into the weekend, a very inconsistent W'ly groundswell is due across our exposed breaks, though likely remaining tiny on the Surf Coast.

The source of this swell is a strong frontal progression that's currently positioned north-east of the Heard Island region, generating gale to severe-gale W'ly winds, but in our far and western swell window.

This isn't ideal and we'll see the swell coming in at a very inconsistent 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and with variable morning winds ahead of a strong, early afternoon SW change. Sunday will be poor as the swell eases along with lingering, fresh S/SW winds.

Longer term we've got a better, inconsistent W/SW groundswell due early next week, produced by an initially distant and very intense polar low that'll form around the Heard Island region tomorrow, projecting closer towards us through the week while weakening.

The initial fetch will see severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds generated, projecting east-northeast while weakening just a touch. The storm is then expected to continue weakening under the country while tracking east-southeast, with the swell due to fill in Monday and peak through the afternoon.

Size wise the Surf Coast should reach 4-5ft, with 6-8ft sets to the east, but onshore winds look to persist out of the SW as a weak trough moves through, S'ly Tuesday as the swell eases. We'll take a closer look at this on Wednesday though.