Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 12th)

Best Days: Keen surfers Sunday from late morning before winds pick up to much, mid-late morning Monday, every morning from Tuesday through next weekend

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Weak W'ly swell tomorrow AM, easing with a morning W/NW breeze, shifting SW late morning
• Better though inconsistent SW groundswell building Sun PM with light to moderate S/SE winds, increasing, easing Mon with E/SE tending E/NE winds ahead of late sea breezes
• Fun, mid-period SW swell Wed with morning E/NE winds, easing Thu with morning NE winds
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Fri PM, peaking Sat AM with N/NE winds

Recap

Weak, fading surf with the SE windswell being the more dominant signal yesterday, providing 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast, 1-1.5ft to the east.

This morning the swell has reached a low point and westerly winds are favouring protected spots. Winds will shift onshore into the afternoon with a very small increase in weak new W'ly swell, discussed below.

This weekend and next week (Feb 13 - 19)

A weak mid-latitude front is currently projected east towards us, through our western swell window while generating a fetch of strong W/SW winds. A small, weak and west swell is due from this front with a very slight increase likely this afternoon/evening, though peaking tomorrow morning.

Exposed breaks on the Surf Coast should see 2ft sets, with 3-4ft sets to the east and a light W/NW breeze will favour protected spots, which will be smallest. Winds will shift SW late morning so aim for that morning paddle if desperate.

Unfortunately in the wake of tomorrow's change, winds will linger from the S/SE into Sunday, though only light to moderate through the morning, freshening later.

The surf looks to be small in the morning but our new, inconsistent SW groundswell is due through the afternoon, generated by a better, though more distant storm through this week. A fetch of W/SW gales in our medium-range swell window, south-west of WA has produced this swell and we should see it building into the afternoon, reaching an inconsistent 3ft+ late in the day on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

A drop in size is due Monday from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively (inconsistent) and conditions will start to improve as we move into a period of easterly winds. This shift in wind regime will be linked to a couple of strong highs moving in and sitting to our south-west and south-east, cradling an inland surface trough.

We'll see this pattern dominate all of next week with morning E-NE winds ahead of afternoon SE sea breezes.

Firstly on Monday though winds will be average early and out of the E/SE, but improving and tending E/NE by mid-late morning, then variable ahead of late sea breezes.

Tuesday looks great with a NE offshore but smaller surf back to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east.

Some fun, reinforcing, mid-period SW swell is due to build Tuesday afternoon, peaking Wednesday and this will keep the exposed beaches topped up with fun waves. The source will be a drawn out, broad and not overly strong fetch of W/NW-W/SW winds.

Size wise it'll be good as it won't over power the beaches with Wednesday due to kick back in size to a more consistent 4ft east of Melbourne (possible odd bigger one) and 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast. Winds will shift back to the E-E/NE on Wednesday morning, but then more NE Thursday as the swell eases. Friday will be clean again with a N/NE offshore but easing, small swell.

Longer term, as touched on last update, we've got an inconsistent W/SW groundswell for next weekend, generated by a strong frontal system projecting towards WA, in our far swell window. The swell will likely build Friday and peak early Saturday and with N/NE winds, but we'll have a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend!