Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 5th February)

Best Days: Today (ahead of a late afternoon change), tomorrow ahead of the change, beaches for the keen Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW groundswell tomorrow with fresh N/NW tending stronger NW winds ahead of a late afternoon, shallow change
• S/SW windswell building Sun with strong W/SW tending SW winds
• Inconsistent SW groundswell Mon with fresh S'ly winds
• Cleaner on the beaches Wed AM but small, weak and fading surf

Recap

Fun, easing surf across the beaches yesterday with clean conditions and dropping surf from 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, 2-3ft on the Surf Coast.

Today we’ve got our new, inconsistent SW groundswell on the coast with lully though good quality 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, with 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves on the Surf Coast swell magnets. Winds are excellent for the beaches and should remain so until late afternoon. Make the most of it as winds will become less favourable tomorrow.

This weekend and next week (Feb 6 - 12)

Today’s inconsistent SW groundswell should peak through the day, with Cape Sorell currently showing some good figures, peaking this morning.

We’ll see it start to ease back through tomorrow though with sets dropping from a slow, full 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets, and 4-5ft to the east. Take into consideration the big morning high tide and plan accordingly.

Conditions will be best on the Surf Coast with a freshening N/NW tending stronger NW breeze, giving into a shallow afternoon S/SW change.

This shallow change will give into a stronger W/SW tending SW change through Sunday, creating poor conditions for all locations. This change is linked to the mid-latitude low that’s stalled west of us through the end of the week, bringing us favourable winds, finally pushing east and across us.

Behind the low a weak fetch of S/SW winds will bring a spike in weak S/SW swell Sunday afternoon to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 4ft to the east.

Our, stronger though inconsistent groundswell due late in the day and more so Monday is on track, but so are the fresh onshore S’ly winds in the wake of Sunday’s change. This swell was generated by a slightly smaller (in scope) polar low, firing up in a similar position to the one generating today’s swell. Seeing today’s size, I’ve slightly revised the expected peak in energy due Monday, with infrequent 3ft+ waves due on the Surf Coast magnets, 4-5ft+ to the east, mixed in with easing S/SW swell from Sunday.

Winds will swing more S/SE-SE Tuesday morning but the swell will be on the ease, dropping from 2-3ft and 4ft respectively. Wednesday still looks cleaner on the beaches with an E/NE tending NE breeze through the morning, but the swell will be weak and on the way out, dropping from 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2ft to maybe 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Following this there’s nothing too significant on the cards until next weekend and the following week. We may see some fun mid-period W/SW swell with favourable winds for the beaches as a high moves in from the west. More on this Monday though. Have a great weekend!