Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday January 11th)

Best Days: Today on the beaches, Wednesday morning on the beaches, Friday morning on the Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, building W/SW swell Wed with N/NE winds until early afternoon, easing Thu with a dawn W/NW breeze
• Building W/SW groundswell Fri with fresh W/NW winds ahead of a strong, late morning SW change
• Poor, onshore surf Sat-Tue

Recap

Fun waves across the exposed beaches through the mornings with light winds, biggest Saturday, smaller yesterday. The Surf Coast was fairly average, best Saturday morning for the keen.

Today conditions are clean across most breaks with a hot offshore wind and small, new inconsistent mid-period swell. It's a bit under expectations but offering fun 3ft+ sets across the Mornington Peninsula and 2ft to the west. Winds look to hold until around 7:30-8pm so make the most of the clean conditions.

Inconsistent, but a good, fun size

This week and weekend (Jan 12 - 17)

Similar sized surf is due tomorrow across both regions but this evening's change will leave strong, though easing S/SW winds, tending S'ly through the afternoon. This will create choppy, average conditions, improving a touch through the afternoon.

Wednesday morning will start small and slow, but a new, small, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell should build through the late morning, peaking into the late afternoon.

The source of this swell was a relatively weak but persistent frontal system firing up around the Heard Island region on Friday evening.

A fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds were initially generated, with the front now weakening under WA, moving east as a trough though still generating a fetch of strong SW winds.

The swell should looks smaller than forecast on Friday with the Surf Coast building from 2ft in the morning to 2-3ft through the late afternoon, and the Mornington Peninsula 3-4ft, building to 4-5ft through the late afternoon. Morning, light N/NE winds should hold until early afternoon, giving into sea breezes ahead of a late and stronger SW change. Therefore get a surf in before mid-afternoon.

The swell will ease into Thursday morning with an early W/NW breeze, shifting stronger S/SW late morning.

We've got a better groundswell due into the end of the week from a stronger front, come low that's formed around the Heard Island region. A better fetch of W/SW gales are being generated, projecting east-northeast through our western swell window towards the Bight while weakening rapidly.

The swell will be inconsistent but fun in size, building Friday, peaking into the afternoon, then easing Saturday. Also in the mix will be a mid-period SW swell from a weak trough moving in Thursday, but not above the size of the groundswell. The Surf Coast should build from 2-3ft in the morning to 3ft+ later in the day, 4ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, up to 4-6ft through the late afternoon.

Winds look favourable and fresh out of the W/NW through the morning, but the trough will bring a strong SW change late morning, persisting Saturday as the swell eases. There's an outside chance of a dawn W'ly Saturday morning but we'll review this Wednesday/Friday.

Unfortunately onshore winds look to dominate the weekend and early next week as a strong, slow moving high pushes in from the west, with frontal systems skirting around its south-eastern flank due to generate pulses of S/SW swell. More on this in Wednesday's update.