Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 6th)

Best Days: Saturday and Sunday mornings on the beaches (not at dawn), Monday on the beaches, Wednesday on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large SW groundswell tomorrow with early light onshore winds
• Easing, weakening swell on the weekend with winds tending variable each morning
• Fun S/SW swell Mon with fresh N/NE winds until mid-afternoon
• Small SW swell Wed with morning N/NE winds likely

Recap

The swell has eased slowly in size over the past two days though strong onshore winds have continued to create very poor surfing conditions along with cooler, cloudy, showery weather.

This week and weekend (Jan 7 - 10)

Later today we should see the forerunners of our large, strong, long-period SW groundswell filling in, with it hitting WA today, offering 6-8ft sets even when the low wasn't ideally aimed for the state, and formed late in their swell window. Keep an eye on the Cape Sorell wave buoy for early indications.

There's no change to the expected peak tomorrow morning with 5-6ft sets due on the Surf Coast, 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with less than ideal conditions.

Fresh onshore winds will blow until the early morning, easing off around dawn as a trough moves across us, bringing light to variable E/SE winds across the Mornington Peninsula, likely S/SW on the Surf Coast, before freshening from the SE mid-late morning. This won't really provide too many quality options which is a shame with the strength of the swell.

Come Friday, moderate to fresh E/SE winds will continue to create average conditions as the groundswell eases from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east. This trend will be slowed by a reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell generated by a trailing polar front moving in quickly on top of the strong low linked to the groundswell.

This bodes well for fun waves Saturday morning with winds due to be more variable through the morning, creating OK conditions for the beaches with easing 4ft sets, 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast.

Sunday looks workable as well now with variable winds developing through the morning, though smaller, weaker amounts of swell.

Moving into next week and our better offshore wind for Monday morning and new mid-period SW swell are on track.

The mid-period energy is being generated by a weak though broad and sustained polar front that's currently around the Heard Island region. A pre-frontal fetch of persistent strong W/NW winds, followed right behind by weaker W/SW winds should produce a fun kick in size Monday to an inconsistent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds look fresh from the N/NE and could hold into the early afternoon as a trough sits just to our east, shifting across us into the late afternoon.

This will leave lingering S/SE winds into Tuesday.

Into Wednesday we may see another morning period of offshore winds ahead of another trough and with some fun mid-period energy from the SW, but we'll have a closer look at this Friday.