Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday December 30th)

Best Days: Beaches Friday mid-morning to mid-afternoon, Saturday morning, Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Peaky mix of SE windswell and long-range groundswell Fri through Sun, best on the beaches mid-morning to early afternoon
• New mid-period SW swell Mon, though with S/SE winds
• Stronger SW groundswell mid-late week but with SE winds

Recap

A fun mix of mid-period swells to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast yesterday with clean conditions, improving to the east as winds went variable ahead of late sea breezes. Today the surf is a touch smaller if anything and with light to moderate, workable onshore winds for the keen.

This week and next (Dec 31 – Jan 8)

The first half of the week has seen lighter winds and workable waves across the state, but moving into the end of the week we'll see winds strengthen and the surf building from the south-east as an inland surface trough deepens, squeezing a strong high to our south-west.

As the high moves in from the west tomorrow, winds will strengthen from the S/SE, tending S'ly through the day and then strong SE late. This will create poor conditions with a small mix of leftover mid-period W/SW swell and building windswell.

Into Friday the high will move south of us, generating strong E/SE winds through Bass Strait and kicking up a moderate sized SE windswell across the Surf Coast, biggest later.

Strong pre-dawn E/SE winds are due to ease off for a period through the morning, evening tending E/NE at times until early afternoon, with a strong burst from the SE due into the late afternoon and evening.

There'll also be a very inconsistent W/SW groundswell in the mix, generated west of Heard Island late last week, but the localised SE windswell will be more dominant. Size wise the Surf Coast looks to be around 3ft in the morning, kicking later to 4ft, with the Mornington Peninsula similar in size. With the winds tending E/NE through the morning there should be fun, peaky options.

The high will move further east Saturday, resulting in winds tending E/NE through Bass Strait, cutting off the swell generating fetch, though we'll see winds swing back E/SE into the afternoon and evening.

The surf should drop back from 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, similar on the Mornington Peninsula, then smaller Sunday and easing from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast, 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions should be fun for the beaches with an E/NE-NE breeze Saturday morning ahead of afternoon SE sea breezes, more variable Sunday morning ahead of sea breezes.

As we move into next week we'll see a new high push in from the west, with a trough bringing a S/SE change Monday, spoiling a new mid-period SW swell.

The source of this swell is a polar frontal progression that developed around the Heard Island region last night, pushing east while generating a fetch of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds over the coming days. It won't be overly strong but the swell should arrive overnight Sunday, peaking Monday to 3ft on the swell magnets across the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east.

Tuesday looks similar in size with a reinforcing mid-period swell from a secondary trailing polar front, though winds look to persist from the S'th, moderate to fresh in strength.

Longer term, unfortunately we look stuck with the winds from the south-eastern quadrant, but a couple of stronger polar storms developing south-west of Western Australia should produce some better, long-period groundswell mid-late week. We'll have a closer look at this on Friday though and any hint of better local winds.