Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 28th December)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning keen surfers Surf Coast and east of Melbourne late-morning to mid-afternoon, beaches for the keen Wednesday morning, beaches to the east Friday morning, Saturday morning and Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Weak mix of W/SW and SW swells tomorrow and Wed with light morning winds (W/NW tending variable Tue AM-mid PM, S/SE Wed AM)
• Building SE windswell Fri, smaller though persisting Sat/Sun with improving winds for the beaches

Recap

Variable winds and a fun sized swell provided decent waves on the exposed beaches Saturday, while yesterday was cleaner but back to a slow 1-2ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Today winds are onshore with a tiny swell, but we should see a mix of swells building into the afternoon though more so tomorrow.

This week and weekend (Dec 29 - Jan 3)

Looking at the weak mix of swells due over the coming days and the frontal system that pushed through yesterday (that was forecast to be stronger on Friday), ended up being fairly weak and as a result, this afternoon there isn’t much size due across either region.

The Surf Coast isn’t likely to really top 2ft+ with 3-4ft sets due across the Mornington Peninsula.

We’re likely to see similar sized surf through tomorrow and Wednesday morning from weak frontal activity moving in behind this initial cold front today and tomorrow, coming in at 2ft+ max on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-4ft to the east.

Winds will be better tomorrow morning and light W/NW, favouring the Surf Coast through the morning with light SW winds to the east. We should see winds going variable ahead of mid-late afternoon sea breezes, opening up a window for the beaches from late morning. Wednesday will be a bit bumpy though workable with a light to moderate S/SE breeze, increasing through the day.

As touched on last week, a deepening inland surface trough squeezing a strong high to our south-west will see winds strengthen from the S’th on Thursday, stronger from the E/SE on Friday whipping up a moderate sized, stormy SE windswell for the Surf Coast, smaller to the east.

Winds may tend easterly for a period Friday morning east of Melbourne creating some fun, peaky options though the swell will be building, kicking to 4-5ft late in the day on the Surf Coast from 3ft in the morning, 3-4ft to the east with an inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell also in the mix. The groundswell will be most noticeable but very inconsistent in the morning with the windswell dominant later. The Surf Coast will be poor with strong E/SE winds all day.

Saturday looks a bit better as winds tend E/NE through the morning with a mix of slightly smaller SE windswell and long-range groundswell, dropping from 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula, with average 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast.

We’ll see winds persisting from the E/SE throughout Bass Strait Saturday, weakening and swinging more northerly Sunday, keeping the SE windswell kicking into Saturday evening though easing Sunday with the offshore winds.

Longer term, a new inconsistent SW groundswell is due next week, produced by a broad, though distant polar frontal progression east of Heard Island, but winds look to slip back onshore as a trough moves in from the west. More on this in Wednesday’s update though.