Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th October)

Best Days: Today, desperate surfers Thursday morning on the beaches

Recap

The weekend was great across the beaches with some decent size on offer Saturday morning with clean conditions and a reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell to 4-5ft on the sets, less than ideal on the Surf Coast. Conditions remained good until late afternoon sea breezes kick in.

A temporary low point was seen Sunday morning but an inconsistent new S/SW groundswell built through the morning and afternoon with great conditions on the exposed beaches again until late afternoon.

This swell has eased overnight but the beaches are still really fun, 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Make the most of today’s clean conditions (which will last all day on the beaches) as the coming forecast period is fairly poor. 

This week and weekend (Oct 15 - 20)

Later yesterday’s and this morning’s easing S/SW groundswell will continue to ease this afternoon, becoming small to tiny into tomorrow morning.

Winds look OK through the morning, with a moderate to fresh but easing N/NE’ly due on the Mornington Peninsula, giving into a S/SW change by late morning as a trough moves through. Size wise, the Surf Coast will be tiny, with very inconsistent fading 2ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula (not great). Therefore make the most of today.

Now, as touched on the last few updates, we’ve moved into a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM/AAO) episode, and with this the westerly storm track shifts southward, away from us as high pressure systems dominate the country.

This looks to continue for the coming week at least, with us having to rely on weaker, average swells spreading up from weak polar storms along with less than ideal local winds.

So coming back tomorrow and in the wake of the change we’ll see moderate to fresh S’ly winds Wednesday but with no decent swell. It’ll just be localised windswell. A very weak mid-latitude low drifting east-southeast through our swell window behind tomorrow’s trough looks to generate a very weak W/SW swell for later Wednesday afternoon but it doesn’t look to top 2ft max on the Surf Coast and 3ft to possibly 4ft to the east.

This swell will fade overnight leaving small to tiny surf across the state with a lighter SE breeze, possibly variable for a stage through the morning ahead of sea breeze. Desperate surfers should try the Mornington Peninsula for a weak 2ft to maybe 3ft wave. The Surf Coast will see a small, peaky windswell from a short-lived fetch of strong E/SE winds through Bass Strait.

Come Friday, a weak front will push in, swinging winds S/SW but with a bit of strength. With no decent swell it’ll be a write-off. A very slow moving high will fail to really push further east across us through the weekend and this will result in persistent onshore S/SW winds into Saturday, possibly persisting Sunday.

A couple of weak polar fronts may generate some small, weak mid-period S/SW swell for Sunday though to no major size. The Surf Coast should see 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets, 4ft or so to the east.

Longer term we may see a stronger polar front generating a good swell for next week with more favourable winds, but more on this Wednesday.