Ride out the onshores, hit the beaches
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 9th December)
Best Days: This morning, exposed beaches Saturday morning, Sunday morning and Monday
Recap
Dawn yesterday started fairly poor and choppy on the Surf Coast but conditions improved shortly after with winds easing and swinging more offshore along with 3-4ft of swell, easing back from Monday. Locations to the east were poor and large.
A reinforcing S/SW swell pulse has kept the Surf Coast up around a fun 3ft+ this morning, with 3-5ft sets to the east and a light W/NW breeze is favouring locations west of Melbourne.
This week and next (Dec 10 - 18)
Make the most of this morning as once winds go onshore this afternoon, we're set for a poor end to the week.
Sea breezes this afternoon will give into a stronger southerly flow tomorrow in the wake of a trough pushing east and a strong high sliding in from the west.
The swell will bottom out tomorrow morning, with some new mid-period S/SW swell due to build into the afternoon, peaking Friday. The source of the swell is a weak polar front that will project up and towards Tasmania today and tomorrow, skirting the south-east flank of the high.
Size wise, the swell won't offer too much power or energy but the Surf Coast should peak Friday to 3ft+, with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Unfortunately winds tomorrow will be poor and fresh from the SW, strengthening from the S through the morning and then fresh S-S/SE on Friday with the peak in swell.
The weekend onwards is looking much better for surf, with a reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell due Saturday, followed by a building S/SW groundswell on Sunday.
The mid-period swell will be generated by a polar fetch of strong W'ly winds following right on the tail of the front pushing up across Tasmania, keeping 4ft sets hitting the Mornington Peninsula with 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast Saturday morning.
Winds should swing around to the E/NE through Saturday morning, fresh in strength and then E/SE into the afternoon. After Friday's onshore winds conditions are likely to be peaky and really fun with the mid-period swell.
Sunday morning will start smaller with 2ft sets on the Surf Coast, 3ft to the east with offshore NE winds, but into the afternoon the new S/SW groundswell should start to show (though with gusty SE sea breezes).
The groundswell will be generated by a strong low tracking south-east from the southern Indian Ocean, tracking along our Great Circle Path while generating a fetch of severe-gale NW winds. It'll weaken on the polar shelf as winds swing more W/NW, with the long-period energy due to travel up and into us Sunday afternoon, peaking overnight and then easing Monday.
Size wise the Surf Coast should build to 3ft+ later in the day with 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, but with those gusty SE winds, easing Monday from 2-3ft and 3-5ft respectively as N/NE winds continue to favour the beaches for most of the day.
Make the most of these fun swells and favourable conditions as there's nothing too amazing to follow. A deepening low south-west of us may generate some new swell but with poor winds. More on this Friday.
Comments
Wow Craig, one of those bizarre GCP swells..interesting, when you say long period, how long are we talking?
GW shark 4 m long in the surf zone at Lorne today my mates had to follow it in the boat for 15min to scare it away from surfers and sls kids doing p2p
Seriously?
It showed on the vic emergency app..
I guess that's why I don't subscribe to any of those shark sighting apps, it'd probably freak me out, if I actually knew how many close interactions there are on a weekly basis. My theory is that ignorance is bliss, when you're paddling out into their domain, well for me anyway.
Walk around G re: app well said.
Im 41 and 3 times I have chicken out on hitting the water in my life due too bad vibes @powlet river/castle cove and cape shank. I had to tell porkie pies why I didn't want to surf at the time due to shitting myself about getting munched. I had to fess up 2 of the 3 times why I didn't surf after everyone had finished there session and stunned everyone that I had got myself into that head space.
Im finding it alarming all the shark attack/sightings in the news last 4 weeks because it's only the 1st week of summer.
I seem to remember them arriving about when school hols started in a previous year, made the cover of the paper
Imagine if you could pull the plug on the ocean and drain it every time you surfed.
Then walk around on the sea floor and actually see what's been cruising around within, say, 500 metres of where you're surfing.
Would be an eye opener for sure and would reduce surfer numbers radically.
You could also roll a cement mixer out there and fill in gaps in the reef so as to get perfect shape.
And put some foam cushioning over those sharp Indo reefs while you’re at it.