Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 2nd December)

Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow morning, Surf Coast Friday morning for the keen, exposed beaches Saturday morning

Recap

Both regions offered fun waves yesterday morning with clean conditions on the beaches and surf to 4ft+ to the east, 3ft on the sets across 13th Beach and 2-3ft around Torquay.

A slightly stronger but inconsistent SW groundswell offered a little more energy and size to all locations into the afternoon as winds shifted to the west and strengthened, favouring the Surf Coast before becoming choppy late afternoon.

Today the large swell from a strong low that formed south-west of us yesterday is on the build and on track. This morning the swell consisted mostly of mid-period energy from the W/SW but delivered 4-6ft sets across the Surf Coast magnets from dawn, 4-5ft mostly elsewhere and we'll see the stronger SW groundswell filling in through the day and reaching an easy 6-8ft.

Looking at the satellite pass of the low (discussed below), with a vast swathe of storm-force S/SW winds aimed in our swell window, we could even see a few bigger sets as the swell peaks.

Winds are currently favourable but will swing onshore late morning and into the afternoon from the SW-S/SW.

Building swell this AM

This week and weekend (Dec 3 - 6)

Today's large and significant SW groundswell was generated by a strong low deepening directly south-west of yesterday, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds projected towards us.

The satellite pass of the low just before it pushed east and under Tasmania reveals an impressive swathe of storm-force S/SW winds in our swell window and this will likely provide sets above 6-8ft on the Surf Coast magnets later today before easing back through tomorrow morning.

The easing trend is still expected to be steady owing to the low moving out of our swell window early this morning as it passes under Tasmania.

Size wise we should see easing 4-5ft+ waves on the Surf Coast tomorrow morning, 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions look great for protected spots tomorrow morning with a light W/NW offshore, tending variable through the middle of the day ahead of afternoon sea breezes.

Friday will be half the size and easing from 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast, the 4ft range to the east along with a moderate W/NW morning breeze, shifting S/SE around midday.

The start of the weekend looks best for the beaches with a strengthening N/NE tending N'ly breeze (best early) and fun, easing 3ft to possibly 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, 2ft on the sets across the Surf Coast.

This strengthening northerly wind will be linked to another strong and deepening low moving in from the west through the weekend.

This low looks good on the Mean Sea Level Pressure charts but will actually at this stage come in split with a fetch of W'ly gales too north of us, and a slimmer, better aligned fetch of S/SW gales generated through our southern swell window.

At this stage swell from this low looks to build Sunday and peak Monday with winds from the west to south-west but we'll have to have a closer look at the structure and size on Friday.