Slim pickings this period
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 23rd September)
Best Days: Today, Desperate surfers tomorrow, keen surfers on the beaches Monday and early Tuesday before the swell fades
Recap
Clean though small 1-2ft waves on the Surf Coast yesterday morning, and OK across protected beaches of Melbourne before winds shifted to the west and strengthened along with a late increase in swell.
Today, winds have backed off and we've got 2ft+ of mid-period W/SW swell on the Surf Coast from a weak low moving in from the west, poor and choppy to the east.
This week and weekend (Sep 24 – 27)
The swell source for today, that being a weakening mid-latitude low drifting south-east across and and then through Bass Strait, will continue to weaken today, resulting in a drop in surf through tomorrow.
The Surf Coast will back off from a slow, weak 2ft, with 3-4ft sets to the east and winds should improve through the day, swinging from the W/NW to N/NW into the afternoon. It's worth noting the models are over-forecasting the size tomorrow and combining the easing mid-period W/SW swell with windswell energy.
We then look at the cold shot of polar air moving up and across the state later week and into the weekend, forming into a deep low but also drawing up polar frontal activity behind it.
Looking at Friday morning and there's no window for clean conditions across any location now, with a trough bringing a weak onshore change around dawn out of the S/SW and this will freshen through the day. There'll be no swell of size or power in any case so it'll be a lay day.
Stronger SW winds are due into Saturday morning, easing through the day as the western flank of the low moves in and across us, with a broad fetch of strong S/SW winds being dragged up behind it.
This should bring with it some mid-period S/SW swell on Sunday, with Saturday consisting of weak, locally generated windswell.
Size wise, Sunday looks to come in around 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4ft+ to the east but with lingering and moderate to fresh S/SW winds. We'll likely see better conditions into the afternoon as winds ease to moderate and tend more S'ly.
Moving into next week and unfortunately Monday still looks dicey with a light, lingering S/SW breeze as the S/SW swell eases. There's a chance winds may go variable through the morning, but we'll review this Friday. Size wise the Surf Coast looks to ease from 2ft+, and 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Tuesday looks much better on the beaches with a N/NE offshore, but the swell will be all but gone, tiny on the Surf Coast and possibly 2ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
The rest of the week looks void of swell but with favourable winds out of the northern quadrant, with some new westerly swell energy on the cards for Friday afternoon and the weekend. The source will be weak Southern Ocean fronts moving in from the south-west of WA, under the country, producing mid-period W/SW swells, but we'll have a closer look at this Friday.
Comments
Perfect forecast for the poor souls in lock down!
Already been a stella run, weekend was amazing..a break with the weather gives it a little bit of rest-up. Quite happy to see Melbourne locked-down ever more, so 1000-of-the-closest friends can leave locals in peace. It's 1985 all over again. But it won't last. The backlash from this shyte will be beaches full of drongos doing what they do best.. kooking the place right up. #juuuuustsayin'
because proximity to the ocean makes it more yours than others..
Well no, but maybe paying Surf Coast Shire council rates which pay for all the parking lots and maintained tracks to your favourite breaks counts for something.
Hah!
Got a big property? Racked up a few parking fines? Registered your dog(s)? Great! You're a big time contributor to Surf Coast Shire and thus deserve respect and more waves!!!
Someone's gotta pay for the nice jobs in the big building...
I plan to be back in Melbourne when all that crap happens..which is generally the best option. Circus comes to town and places of beauty and serenity become loved to death in a show of stupidity and idiocy as crowds fight for 7-10 wave sets every 7-10 minutes.. Only one coming out on top with that rubbish is the surfboard in ya eye.
(Surfing age-old supply and demand problem) (With demand increasing also due to increased reporting and supply..well, last I heard the waves weren't making em selfs??)Subscribes to Swellnet, muses about reporting. Carrying on about crowds.
Stop surfing. Might be happier.
My post suggested I'm happier surfing right now.. (For obvious reasons) Where did the stop surfing might be happier bit come into it?? I don't follow..
Easy solution: Melbourne crew get exclusive access to all breaks for 1 month after the release from lockdown as a thank you. Keeps the crowds very, very manageable.
Cheers!
Yep another great report for us on the MP who live just outside the 5km zone.
Never seen so many ppl surfing in the bays of Mornington yesterday. The desperation is real
Looked like the classic Adelaide stormies that I grew up with!
Haha same but with the afternoon summer seabreezes in Perth
My opinion might be skewed by a bit of the old 'it used to be better 10 years ago', but Adelaide metro stormies generally are much better and bigger than Melb Metro stormies.
Ah yeah that makes sense, deeper and longer fetch. More oomph.
Ha Yeah we had a crack yesterday..abit delusional but every now and then a lump came through that would keep us out just alittle longer
Nothing to be ashamed about a bay surf. I, like many others learned to surf at places like Altona, Williamstown, St Kilda and Brighton etc. Many of them went on to bigger things too. It made those first trips down the coast seem like Nirvana. I can still remember seeing my first clean tubing wave paddling out at Jan Juc. I'm curious if many people still learn and surf in the bay.
i'm curious as to when you saw a wave tube at juc
Did I mention ownership of the ocean in any of my post? - I was musing about crowds from Melbourne. That was it. - But shame on you for suggesting such a thing as nature can be owned by anyone. The irony is..your government has placed ownership over your movements to truly drive home whom is in the better position right now. I'll keep stirring the pot for ya while we all await your imminent arrival...with 1000 of your closest friends. ;-)
The real irony here is you saying there's never a sad day on the waves then whinging about crowded days on the waves..
I surfed this arvo, as work is quiet. It was very reminiscent of a baywave/stormy, still, I managed a couple of weak turns in amungst the 2ft windswell junk, so it was a nice way to end the day.
Bit of talk about today that more restrictions than originally planned will ease this coming Sunday... wonder if the 5km limit (within metro melb) will be included in that?? Unlikely but ya never know
Thought I heard that all Melbourne surfers will be allowed access to Torquay for 2 hrs exercise from Monday onwards, unfortunately the peninsula will have roadblocks....just a rumour
What is it with Torquay tools?
First that NWS flog now this timm dah knob-jockey turns up.
Same person?
NWS’ sin bin time out must be up and he’s back under another alias, or they’re just related/best buddies/one of his many house mates his complains about...
Come on Dan, bring us some love - don’t like our chances though.
Knob jockey? - Love it. So it descends into name calling. Classy stuff. Clearly some frustrated Melbourne city-slickers looking for scraps. Enjoy what ya get..when ya finally get it...with 1000 of closest mates in the car park ;0) Ha..
Timm-Dah, it’s been pretty civil in these parts since your counterpart was sin binned.
Posts like yours seem to bring the best out of people.
On a separate note,
I can’t wait to actually read the forecast notes again instead of just the comments - can’t bring myself to read them at the moment - reading the updates used to be something to look forward to in between sessions.
You’re in the wrong place if you’re expecting class
Timm- Dah said he plans to be back in Melbourne.
Sounds like he might be one of those blow ins that thinks he or she is more local than the next blow in.
Timm-Dah has been sin-binned for a week.
Classic.
the people who have just sacked those people, have been sacked.
Ben, great to see that swellnet is taking a firmer stance with the aggression and abuse that has previously been tolerated and allowed to exist as commonplace in these threads.
For me it has always been the disappointing part of swellnet, which in every other respect offers such a well considered and high quality platform.
Reckon the 5km rule could be sin binned too! Maybe following school holidays to avoid a mass exodus to the ninch. Still this would equate to 3-4 weeks earlier than planned which is nice
Yeh agree, after all we've been through I reckon seeing out the school holiday period before travel restrictions ease would be a smart move. Kids go back October 5th, open up then.
Can't believe I just advocated for that restriction to stay in place for a bit, what has happened to me.!
At the point where risk outweighs the reward to drop the 5km rule. Would prefer to wait to the regional opening up to share the load otherwise MP and Yarra ranges will be absolutely slammed by crew wanting to get out of the city. What can you do though, unfortunately Dan’s proven time and time again he don’t give a shit about those 2 regions.
I've heard a few epidemiologists talk about after a long period like this some people come sprinting out but most of us are super cautious, either from a specific fear of catching the virus or a general fear of another outbreak happening.
I agree that waiting til after the school holidays would be sensible. Hopefully it could happen before the changed Grand Final holiday so Melbourne folk could get out to regional Vic for a long weekend and help the regional economy kick back into gear.
There'll definitely be a slingshot effect of people held back for so long will unleash themselves out into the world again. I won't lie, I'll be booking weekends away and day trips every single weekend, but I'll be doing all my activities outdoors, I ain't rushing back to the pub or restaurants, just want to get out and enjoy the state, not my suburb. If I go somewhere and it's busy, I'll keep moving until I find somewhere quieter.
In terms of surfing, I'll sacrifice quality of break for lower crowd, just being in the water with a little swell will be nice. The Juc reefs can wait.
Expect even those super out of the way breaks and isolated locations be that ocean/bush/wilderness to be busier than normal.
Once we were allowed to move around back here in NSW everyone was gagging to get out, let alone your guys stint. All the off the beaten track spots were busy and still are now.
Just try and be a bit more savvy and go even further off the beaten track if looking for true isolation or come with a more mellow vibe and just enjoy being outside and share the waves/environment.
Good advice Craigos. Whilst I'm keen for a surf, I just wanna do something different than the local park, something outdoors, walk along a long wide beach, and if not many crew around, dare I say it....slip the mask down. Be nice for a change.
Yep, being outside and in the water will be nice. Reckon the muscles will just melt in relief after being locked up for so long.
And yeah, hopefully that relief will lead to mellow vibes, I know I'll just be happy to be out there again. And I'm sure the locals will welcome us back with open arms like French lasses welcoming GIs at the end of WWII! Maybe ...
Sounds superb!
Yep, I'm also Very interested:)
I think I can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. Been a long time dark here. Well done most Victorians!
I'm with you Dx3......out every weekend, surfing riding, fishing. Just like the old days, in Jan.
Your surf report was on the money this morning. Looked pretty good from up above and not many crew. The reality was slow, weak, short period windswelly type waves up to head high but mostly smaller. Nice and clean but bit of a let down.
All relative I spose. Melb crew would probably donate a nut to be out in that right now....
Your safe for now coastal dwellers, on the age blog about today’s press conference:
More significant lockdown measures, including the five-kilometre radius rule and the 9pm-to-5am curfew, will not be lifted until late October at the earliest – and only if the number of "mystery" cases with an unknown source over the previous 14-day period is fewer than five;
The "ring of steel" around Melbourne will remain in place until the city's COVID-19 infection rate falls as low as regional Victoria's, the Premier said. Melbourne's 14-day rolling case average fell to 26.7 today, while in regional Victoria it is just 1.1;
Something to be mindful of that I think has gone unnoticed by a few also, is that if regional vic get to zero around the time or before metro melb getting under 5 as per the 14 day average guiding principles in the roadmap for restriction easing, then regional vic will move even further ahead on the roadmap, and it states you can't travel to an area that is at a different stage in the roadmap.
So if that were to ooccur, metro melb may have the 5km limit and curfew dropped, but regional vic would still be one step ahead therefore the 'ring of steel' would remain in place preventing any metro folk getting out into the regions....Outcome = MP getting absolutely slaughtered with visitors and I ain't just talking about surfers.
And when the cops are distracted down the Peninsula we'll make a bust for Juc and Winki!
DX3
Going by the roadmap, regional Vic can’t step further until Metro catches up.
Last step for regional has state wide targets.
Ahk Frodge, that's bloody good to hear, I must have missed that bit, cheers!
No active cases on the MP since 21 Sept. Therefore no case to maintain the 5km travel restriction for MP residents, who should be able to travel freely within the shire and to regional Victoria regardless of the Metro Melbourne boundary.
Don't like the chances though.
Couldn’t agree more, it’s insane
Well I'm insane now too, thanks to Dan.
And it's not because of not getting a surf: I never thought I would finish up as frustrated as I am.
A bigger dilemma, however, is who to put last on the ballot sheet in all forthcoming elections: the useless ALP or the just as useless Liberals.
Yep I've thought about this - what an awful decision to have to make on voting. The juvenile embarassing Libs who have offered nothing all year, or the woefully inept lying ALP who seem to have no fucking clue what's going on in their area of responsibility, let alone the level of ongoing restrictions.
Will need to closely consider the independent candidates, but even then you need to know who they are going to side with.
A has been stated repeatedly, it's the volume of people movement for permitted activities on and off the Peninsula and the fact the top half is basically suburban.
There are no active cases in my postcode either.
Both the lib and lab members of parliament down here disagree with you there.
There would be as many (maybe more) heading from suburban greater Geelong, surf coast, bacchus marsh etc in to the much higher risk west for work. Just check out the roadblock traffic jam stretching km every day all day on the fwys
Why you think this 5km radius has stopped people already coming down already haha.
Simple.
Bored people everywhere, mostly locals.
So many more people are working from home too.
So many more people are walking around .getting coffee.
The Peninsula is not a sleepy little village no matter what you think. Lots of people you don't know down there probably surf.
Maybe lots of them have never had the time to put into surfing that they do now.
I mentioned surfing where?
I've been travelling around for work couple of times a week only going as far up as Mornington but yet to see any significant police presence or roadblocks, could just be the times of day I'm around though
Since 2005 there are just under 50000 more people living within the Mornington Peninsula Shire . You just are not going to know every single face in the water. Simple.
It's not a matter of The Bone knowing every face its if they don't know The Bone.
Might not know every surfer from the MP's face, but in my local area every local would know every surfer within 10km.
Also not classed as a local unless you went to play group down here, lived here for a minimum of 32 years, never travelled further than Dromana, or know someone who is related to someone who thinks they have seen a Bigfoot.
I do love a good sensational winter-blast story:
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/melbourne-canberra-weathe...
"The blast of polar air set to hit south eastern Australia over the coming days is expected to deliver maximum temperatures that haven’t been this low during September for almost two decades."
Christmas in July in September.