Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 19th August)

Best Days: Surf Coast Friday and possibly dawn Saturday

Recap

Tiny waves across the Surf Coast yesterday and today but with great conditions, with a workable bumpy wave to the east, cleaner today and a small 2ft+ or so.

This week and weekend (Aug 20 - 23)

From tomorrow we'll finally see the surf and ocean become more active as a mid-latitude low moves across us and drags up a polar frontal system behind it.

It's worth pointing out from the get go that the models are overcooking the size through the whole swell event owing to the mix of different swells in the water.

Tomorrow morning will be weak and small with strong W/SW-SW winds moving through this evening unlikely to generate much over 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east.

The polar front will project towards us though, bringing stronger W/SW winds through the day which should see the size building later in the day maybe to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast by dark and 4-5ft to the east, though still weak. Winds should be OK for protected spots most of the day and fresh and gusty out of the W-W/NW.

Coming back to the polar front and this itself will generate a better fetch of strong SW winds in our south-western swell window this evening and early tomorrow before pushing north and weakening, swinging winds W/SW and then out of our swell window.

The mid-period SW swell due from this source is expected to build Friday afternoon, with the morning seeing weaker W/SW swell energy possibly to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and to 5-6ft or so to the east. The better mid-period energy should reach 4ft+ into the afternoon on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east and strong W/NW winds will favour protected spots.

Saturday morning still looks to reveal the peak in size, owing to the progression as a whole moving east Friday resulting in a fetch of strong S/SW winds being projected up and into us.

This will be in addition to a tricky fetch of strong to near gale-force S/SE winds wrapping around the southern flank of a low pressure centre that will form Thursday evening south-west of us. The swell from this source isn't expected until the afternoon though.

Unfortunately as the system moves east winds will swing onshore and strong from the SW Saturday morning. The timing of this change looks a little delayed and with this the dawn session is likely to see W/NW winds with a mixed up 4ft to maybe 5ft of swell for the Surf Coast, 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east.

Sunday will then be a write-off with strong S'ly winds and easing levels of S/SW-S'ly swell.

Next week onwards (Aug 24 onwards)

The swell and winds will back off into Monday but we're likely to see lingering onshore S/SW tending S/SE winds across all locations with weak and easing sets from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east. Tuesday doesn't look any better even with a return to NW offshores, as there'll be no decent size in the mix.

Longer term a strong high will move in from the west keeping a lid on any major swell production, but an elongated polar frontal progression moving in from the Heard Island region may generate small pulses of SW swell. More on this Friday.