Autumn swells and conditions for the period
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 17th April)
Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow, Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday
Recap
Tiny clean options on the Surf Coast yesterday morning ahead of a strong onshore change and building mix of windswell and new long-range groundswell into the afternoon.
Today though we've seen our first pulse of W/SW swell fill in, generated by a strong mid-latitude front moving under WA, through the Bight and then dipping south-east while weakening yesterday. A secondary front moving through today will bring a bit more size this afternoon to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east as winds shift W/SW.
This weekend and next week (Apr 18 – 24)
With this morning's first pulse of W/SW swell, and the secondary increase out of the SW due this afternoon from a secondary front pushing up and into us, we'll then see the third and strongest S/SW groundswell filling in tomorrow.
This is being generated by the strongest fetch of winds through our swell window, that being severe-gales (verified right) moving on top of the active sea state generated by storms before it, projecting north-east towards Tassie in our southern swell window today.
The swell is expected to fill in through the day, a bit smaller at dawn and offer consistent 6ft sets across the Surf Coast when it peaks, with the possible rare bigger cleanup on the magnets, with 6-8ft+ waves to the east.
The swell will then ease fairly quickly overnight Saturday and into Sunday (due to the low moving out of our swell window early tomorrow), dropping from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east and then small Monday to 1-2ft and 2-3ft respectively.
Looking at the local winds and tomorrow will be best in protected spots with a morning W/NW breeze, shifting moderate to fresh W/SW-SW late morning and SW into the afternoon.
Sunday should see improving conditions across the exposed beaches to the east with a variable W/NW-NW breeze developing through the morning, and then likely tending NE into the afternoon. So aim for an afternoon surf. The Surf Coast looks fun working the winds all day.
Monday is looking fairly average with the fading swell and strong N/NE winds ahead of an afternoon NW change.
Now, as touched on in Wednesday's notes, Monday's change will be linked to a strengthening mid-latitude frontal system moving in from the west, with a low pressure system due to form south of the Bight.
We'll see a fetch of elongated W/SW gales developing Sunday afternoon through Monday, reaching severe-gale-force as the low develops. This will be while the system as a whole slowly dips south-east and with this we'll see a fairly W'ly groundswell impacting the state Tuesday and Wednesday.
The groundswell is due to build through Tuesday and likley peak overnight, easing into Wednesday, though followed by a reinforcing SW swell from a trailing fetch of W/SW winds moving through our south-western swell window Wednesday.
Size wise at this stage it looks like we'll see the surf kicking to 3-4ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets by dark Tuesday, easing from 3-4ft Wednesday, with 6ft+ sets to the east.
Winds look favourable and N/NW on Tuesday, possibly tending N/NE into the afternoon east of Melbourne and then similar on Wednesday. This will open up plenty of options across both regions. Stronger N/NE winds are on the cards for Thursday with the reinforcing SW swell, easing through the day.
We'll go over this again on Monday though and further activity due into next weekend. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Willy has Wed as howling West! You backing yourself Craigoss!?
My candle is lit in hope of your prophecy
Ha, trust in ECMWF.
Heads up local police are continuing to hand out fines to people travelling more than 30 minutes to surf. Some stressed surfers heading back towards torquay today.
Heading back towards Torquay?
From where?
Nobody in Torquay/Juc would have needed to travel more than a few minutes for decent waves this morning.
Don't you mean back towards Melb/Geelong
Anyhow....bring it on I say.
few minutes hey. Torquay just got very small..
This is great news! There was a comment on here a few days back that said the same thing is happening around Westernport too
Yeah, well when I'm working in that area I'll be surfing that area.
Ooohhhh 30 minutes that’s quite an arbitrary number no?
Haha yeh doubt it would stand up in court
Call the cops! We got a bit of swell on our hands here. Thanks craigos
Don't let a bit of bacon scare you off the scent Tubabird
Haha yes but the angelsea one is a (Not a nice word)
Meh!.......still every man, woman and child for themselves, really?
It's all getting a bit boring in the comments lately, tomorrow is totally not worth getting all uptight and protective about fella's, if you're a decent/serious local surfer, you know it'll still gonna be raw, chunky and wobbly down here tomorrow morning.
Gee's.....sigh! Human's really are a bloody selfish bunch hey:(
The Surfcoast cops need to be slinging fines at the local groms too. It's pretty obvious that the vast majority of people are taking physical isolation seriously. Those who aren't are typically in the 15-25 year age group. These are the guys (and from what I've seen, it's boys) who are surfing in packs, travelling in cars together, drinking beer in parks together, and generally hanging out together.
If Australia can keep it's shit together for the next few months, we may just dodge a bullet. Keep up the good work peeps.
New cases seem to be coming right down. Let's not blow it now...
If we work off the theory, that a few have tried to float, that Swellnet is to blame for people travelling to the beach - No doubt SW is responsible for these unlucky punters as well. I’m putting a call out for evidence of a fine actually being issued as I’m calling BS.
All the media reports of fines I’m hearing about are idiots hanging out, house parties, poker games, groups of people etc. - not people travelling for a wave.
It’s also been said on these forums a bit of late - no evidence, it didn’t happen.
But you right Bnkref, let’s not blow it now, there a chance if we play our cards right, things may ease a little in 4 weeks time. If we take the finger off the pulse know, everything we have done will be for nothing.
Have a good weekend all.
Hey Frodge if you are looking for evidence call either Lavers Hill or Apollo Bay police station and simply ask them if anyone has been fined for surfing . They will confirm that fines have been issued and there is a 30 drive non essential travel formula they are working off. You are right on the whole we are close to beating covid but some still don’t get it.
Anyone issued a fine would be well served to challenge it. Under the directions from the Deputy Chief Health Officer for stage 3 restrictions, there is absolutely no mention at all of not driving a certain distance or a time limit in car to exercise.
So local cops might be issuing fines to deter, but I highly doubt they will hold up when challenged as those fines are not based on any current legislation/rules in place.
With golf boating, SUP’s etc now allowed again I really can’t see a fine holding up when challenged.
Police all over the MP this morning, wouldn't want to be driving around with a Melb rego!
The small communities right along the coast are taking Covid super seriously as are the police in protecting those communities
If standing around in groups more than 2 gassbagging in the surf carparks is taking it seriously then yes.
My observation is not. By a long shot
Yeh, nah!
I reckon that photo is about as generous as you can get Walk Around G. Just got back from walking the hound and the surf has deteriorated big time.
Everybody doing the social distancing thing except for 4 young male idiots hanging out at the lookout. 3 sitting very close and then the out of town muppet in low slung beanie joins the gang with a series of high fives.
Where are the police when you need them.
What’s your address VL, I’ll send you a Balaclava and/or Batman suit. Then you can be the police. Vigilante police.
I’ll chip in as well boney
Walking around checking on people and reporting here, weird.
meanwhile the local fuckwits down at port cambell are still surfing in packs of 6-8 while telling tourist to get out of the water
To be perfectly fair, those fuckwits (and believe me, some Port Campbell locals are some of the greatest fuckwits on the planet) do have a point while Covid 19 is on.
6 blokes surfing together telling one lone surfer to go away because i'm not from here is a bit contradictory considering the social distancing. it was in the middle of no where on a beachie.. plenty of space to spread out.
The Port Campbell fuckwits aren't very bright and the optics don't look good. But having said that, there's fuck all cases of C-19 in Western Victoria. They just want to keep it that way. I hope you were working down there not just heading down for a surf.
V
“ Port Campbell locals are some of the greatest fuckwits on the planet”
Hahaha you been told off down there VL???
Yes, my crime was catching a wave at Massacres when I was the only guy in the take off spot after the other two guys got waves 1 and 2 in the set.
Been surfing down that neck of the woods since the 80's and never had an issue with any of the crew down there.
They get the shits when a bunch of people all paddle out together or if cameras come out. Fair enough I reckon.
Does help when you're 6'2" , 90kg, and have a head that looks like it could easily take multiple blows ringmaster. Generally they are OK, but I've seen some pretty ordinary shit when the numbers and size are in their favour. The run in I had with a couple of blokes would never have happened if it wasn't 2 v 1. It was way OTT. I stood my ground, but went in when they did, because I was worried my car would get trashed.
One of the hardest charging blokes down there (Dave who was super friendly in the water and is sadly no longer with us) was embarrassed by the local crew. Dave did a few trips to Hawaii and never mentioned he was from Port Campbell over there. Apparently the local blokes got a little silly with some travelling Hawaiian surfers. And then there was the incident where a bunch of surfers blockaded the helicopter joy flight company premises and told the tourist waiting for their flights to fuck off. Not a good look. But generally smooth sailing if you don't rock up with four in a car and then behave like dicks.
Times like that VL it would be handy to look like the guy who used to teach kickboxing/muay thai where I was doing it.
He was about 5’10, thin but not weak looking and no tats, nice neat haircut and very un-assuming. But the absolute last guy you’d ever want to challenge. The videos of him fighting in Thailand are incredible. He’d destroy multiple tuff-guy surfers at a time. And he looks like your everyday accountant
That was the first issue i've had down there, i just paddled further out the back and got my 3 good ones which ended up working in my favour. Decided to go in when they started to drop in on me as i did not want to catch any viruses that they could have had if they were to come near me.
l live in hope that surfers will be permitted to travel from Melbourne to Westernport by car to surf come May 11th 2020.
I know plenty who have been making multiple trips to various surf spots on all coasts, including westernport. Not one of them has been stopped by a cop.
All fun and games until a grumpy cop gives you a $1600 fine. No wave is worth $1600 in WP haha
Spot on
Sounds like you should hire a bus, get a big crew together and head to Pt Campbell first light on 11 May.
Might put a post on the Tub’s Facebook page saying Pt Campbell is welcoming everyone frustrated at the pool being closed.
https://newsthump.com/2020/04/08/man-goes-to-the-park-to-complain-about-...
If you substitute park for beach.....
Has Gary G been lurking up in Bondi? Haven't heard from him for a while around these parts.
https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-man-arrested-a-bondi-beach...
Haha!
And has anyone ever seen Gary G and that guy in the red sluggos in the same room? Makes you think!!