Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 13th April)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Wednesday, Friday morning, Saturday morning, Sunday

Recap

The weekend and this morning have played out pretty much to script.

Saturday started on the small side of the coin for the Surf Coast with strengthening onshore winds, but through the day we saw a solid spike in close-range and stormy SW swell, best in protected spots for the keen.

Yesterday the swell started to ease from a bumpy and choppy 4-5ft on the Surf Coast, large and choppy to the east.

Today we've got smaller surf back to 3ft on the Surf Coast but with great conditions, workable to the east with lumpy/bumpy 4-5ft sets. Winds are due to go variable and then even E/NE later this afternoon across the exposed beaches as a new S/SW groundswell fills in. This is discussed further below.

This week and weekend (Apr 14 – 19)

Following the easing swell from the weekend's strong front and embedded low, we've got a follow up pulse of moderate sized S/SW swell due this afternoon across the state.

This was generated by a broad but relatively weak polar front moving through our southern swell window over the weekend, projecting up past the south-east tip of Tassie last night.

We should see the swell kick to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast this afternoon, 5ft+ to the east with those E/SE sea breezes on the former and variable E/NE winds on the later, then easing tomorrow morning from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula.

Conditions won't be great on the Mornington Peninsula tomorrow morning with a N/NW breeze, improving mid-late afternoon and into the evening as winds shift N/NE. The Surf Coast looks fun all day with N/NW tending variable winds.

Wednesday will be smaller as the S/SW swell fades from a small 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula along with strengthening northerly winds (N/NW-N on the Surf Coast and N/NE-N to the east).

Moving into Thursday and a low point in swell is due through the morning as winds shift to the W/NW ahead of a SW change. The Surf Coast only looks to be 1-2ft, but into the afternoon a new mix of W/SW-SW groundswells are due, produced by a broad but patchy low that's developed south-southwest of WA.

A distant and fleeting fetch of W/SW gales with broader but weaker (strong W/SW winds) have generated these swells for the afternoon, possibly reaching 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east into the afternoon but with the SW change.

I mentioned last Friday that there was plenty of Southern Ocean frontal activity on the cards for us this week, but it will stay at arms length distance.. well alas it now looks to move in and across us late week, with a strong frontal progression forecast to fire up through Thursday and Friday, moving slowly east Saturday morning.

Thursday's change will be linked to an initial mid-latitude front with a fetch of W/SW gales projected through our western swell window, producing a moderate sized W/SW groundswell for Friday morning to 3-5ft, 6ft to occasionally 8ft to the east. A secondary front moving in through Thursday evening and Friday looks to bring a touch more size into the afternoon, but the largest increase in size is expected off a low to our south-west, generating a fetch of gale to severe-gale SW winds in our southern swell window.

A larger S/SW groundswell is due off this low for Saturday, likely coming in around 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east. We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday and Friday though.

Winds on Friday will be favourable and out of the W/NW in the morning, fresh and W/SW into the afternoon with W/NW winds again Saturday morning, SW-S/SW into the afternoon. Moving into Sunday as the swell eases it looks like we'll see more favourable N'ly winds, but check back here over the coming week for more updates.