Great to excellent run over the coming days
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th February)
Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow, Friday, Saturday morning, Sunday morning
Recap
Good conditions across all locations yesterday morning with a drop in size from Monday's strong kick in groundswell and with variable winds. The Surf Coast eased from 3-4ft, with 4-5ft sets to the east.
This morning the low point in swell wasn't really seen with new energy boosting the Surf Coast back to 3-4ft already along with great conditions and larger bumpier waves to the east.
A strong south-west change has now moved through, creating poor conditions and we'll see a further increase in groundswell and windswell this afternoon reaching a more consistent 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east.
This week and weekend (Feb 27 – Mar 1)
Looking at the coming few days and there's plenty more great and quality surf to come, pumping at times.
This afternoon's mix of SW groundswell and windswell are expected to ease a touch into tomorrow, though sets should still come in around 4ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 6ft to the east.
The swell may ease a touch through the day and then start kicking later with some new mid-period energy and winds look favourable all day for protected spots, moderate to fresh from the NW in the morning, swinging W/NW through the day and W into the afternoon.
We then look to the large long-period SW groundswell event due into Friday. The source of this swell will be a strong and tight polar low that formed south-east of the Heard Island region yesterday and is now tracking east, generating a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds along the polar shelf.
We'll see this low project north-east towards Tassie today and tomorrow morning while broadening in scope and moving on top of the active sea state generated by the fronts before it, producing a large, consistent SW groundswell.
The low is then due to pass across Tassie Thursday evening, with the groundswell now due to be large by Friday morning, peaking through the middle of the day/afternoon.
Size wise, the Surf Coast should see 6ft+ surf (odd 8ft cleanup) through the day on the magnets, 8ft+ to the east and conditions look favourable for protected spots with a morning W/NW breeze west of Melbourne, W/SW to the east, shifting SW late morning and S/SW into the afternoon.
Saturday looks excellent again for protected spots with a morning W/NW breeze and easing sets from 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast, 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east. S/SE sea breezes are due into the afternoon on the Surf Coast, S/SW to the east.
We've now got an upgrade in a reinforcing S/SW groundswell due into Sunday, with a trailing polar front to strengthen rapidly south-west of Tasmania during Friday, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds in our southern swell window.
A secondary large, long-period S/SW groundswell is due from this storm, filling in Sunday and kicking the Surf Coast back to 4-6ft on the swell magnets, 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east. Conditions look best for the Surf Coast again with a light NW offshore, more variable to the east ahead of a shallow S/SW change.
The change will be linked to a trough and then high moving in early next week bringing average S/SE winds as the S/SW groundswell eases.
So all in all the coming period is looking great to excellent at times for experienced surfers.
Comments
The change is in, what summer?
& crazy green for February
Bells Boulevard is closed for major re-sealing, with the scheduled re-opening on the day before the comp starts.
If we get a wet autumn, that situation could get really ugly.
Where's my board rack for the bike again?
How good are roadworks?
every time I see a sign saying 'End Road Work' I dare to dream of a world where roadworks have ended and travel is seamless and uninterrupted
Is that to do with the new housing estate up the top near the highway? I know the road wasn't in the greatest shape, but it didn't seem too bad.
Ben - you've timed your trip well.
Already home. Three good sessions though!
And another good surf on the local up here this morning.
The top section of the road has been widened to give residents better access to the sub-division, The rest of the road was a mess with terrible drainage and no bike lanes. Need to double yellow line the area around sunset strip intersection. There's going to be a massive crash there one day with impatient flogs overtaking cars heading north through that intersection.
Ask old mate Legend MC - didn’t he get cleaned up there last year by some fella in his mobile phone ?
I luv you Craig!
Can we go back to your quote last Wednesday VL.. :p
"Sorry Craig, but that forecast headline really is clutching at straws. That swell is way too far out west for anything meaningful and the winds are still going to be shit. Maybe get a few land breezes in early mornings but it's still locked into the S/E quadrant for most of the forecast period.
It really is a shit forecast for the surf coast. If we do get any swell from that system it will be inconsistent as all fuck. And to make matters worse, the good wind window will only be open for a couple of hours in the early morning. With the shitful run of surf we've had, people are really frothing, and it's a recipe for truly horrific crowds. Don't go booking any time off work thinking it's going to be good next week."
I will admit, there's been some good waves around, but your forecast headline was over-egged. Take today for example. 90 minutes of daylight before the onshore gales blew in. Yesterday had a small window too. Very light onshore early, two good hours (but inconsistent), strong onshores for the rest of the day. Monday morning was supposed to be good, but I missed it due to work. Land breeze to light onshore at 9am. gone by 11am.
To be perfectly honest, I reckon the conditions were pretty much mid-way between our two forecasts. And please remember, I'm just judging from your headline. My wind forecasts were spot on, but I under-estimated swell.
Yes but I only said there was "light at the end of the tunnel", ie giving hope to better waves and it's continued to get better and better since then.
Just stoked the call of larger and better swell for later this week which I made last Monday/Wednesday has come in as expected.
So you were wrong by not having more confidence ...
I thought you didn’t subscribe?
Maybe don’t just read the headlines if you want the news.
As for being a "recipe for truly horrific crowds", I surfed two of the Surf Coast's marque reefs on Monday. One with three blokes (which swelled to six at one point), and the other - Bells Beach no less - which had two (!) surfers in the water when I rocked up, but twelve by the time I left. 'Twas a little onshore by that time but still very rippable.
Super inconsistent and packed everywhere today. This is what happens when forecasters start using the word "great" in their headlines.
Eh? There's about fifteen, maybe twenty surfers in the water at Torquay.
And we just got a photo from Bells, taken earlier this morning, with about ten spread across the break.
Try 60 at Winky and 40+ at Bells. People were doing laps of the carpark to get a spot. It was packed and very inconsistent 3-4 ft with the occasional bigger one. Bird Rock and Steps carparks were overflowing. Craig got a little excited with his forecast.
And you'll have to forgive me for not getting excited about only 15 out at Torquay Point. I'm old, but still not old enough for a mal and fat burger wave.
A mate went to the Pop and watched T-Ray get dropped in on twice, of all people. That pretty much meets any definition of "truly horrendous crowd" in my book.
Probably told him to "go back to Melbourne" as well.
Hahaha Ouch!
Good news at last !!
Vicco and warm water may be too big an opportunity to miss.
It's not entirely bath water warm Mick... still a little cool to it, especially in the wind
Water is warm, wind was cold.
Might take the hood tomorrow.
I should have posted at 7am with a pic... bird rock is pumping today, get on it boiz
Lovely colours at Lorne. Certainly busy with beginners.
I surfed a pumping reef with no one out today. I’m not going to say where, but I do wonder, where is everyone? No one even checked where I was. So much fun.
Slow 3ft with the occasional 4ft wave this arvo crew, winds still ok but the higher tide and weakish mid period swell is making it pretty fat. Still, a whole lot better than what I've been surfing lately.
We still on for tomorrow VL?
I'm calling small onshore and packed. Good day for a sleep in or getting the chores done.
you don't work Fridays? lucky you
yeh Im workin, just pulling old VL's leg
Solid but wobbly bobbly unfortunately. Yesterday was much better, off to work instead for me.
Enjoy!
What's that.. three in the water? Where is everyone?
They followed to VLs car to crowd out his spot.
Looks like readers are doing 'guest' reports this morning so.......
Done the drive around this morning. It's 5,6ft junk everywhere and virtually no one out except that secret spot just East of Bells. Musta been WSW out in Bass Strait last night. If ya didn't get in Tues/Wed/Thu mornings ya missed out.
Save your petrol money and don't bother today.
Totally understand it ain't anywhere near perfect, but I find it hard to reconcile WAG's pic (above) as 'junk', when winds are light and variable and conditions are clean on the face, if lumpy through the lineup.
I'd be out there in a flash.
compared to east coasters, us southern souls are spoilt and as a consequence we get bit picky!!!
Im not
Lots of current is one of the main reasons Ben. I pulled up and saw two guys get washed around the Button within five minutes of each other. I then watched for another 30 mins and saw around ten guys launch from the western corner / up on the reef. Two of them made it out, everyone else got washed in, many close to the Button – with one unlucky bloke actually ending up on the reef (fortunately uninjured, in fact it looked surprisingly mild, could have easily been a lot worse).
Bad current for the paddle, erratic lulls, solid size; all adds up to few people out. Quite a few tried.
Did see Robbo and CBW launch from the Button though and punch out (to Winki) in 3-4 mins no problem. Another level.
You know as well as me that a single shot can be totally at odds with reality Ben. To be fair though, I've come off 3 good surf days and could afford to be choosy this morning. (Like a lot of others judging by the lack of crew around)
If you paddled out it would be the old 'is the reward worth the effort' chestnut. A lot of duckdiving and paddling against the sweep for maybe a handful of warped, lumpy (albeit solid) waves which will most likely drop an unpassable section on you within the first 30 metres. If the answer is still yes then goodonya! I admire your stoke.
Yep, totally understand.
I'd still be out there though! You never know when a month of jellyfish shitwinds are headed your way (apologies Sheepdog).
Just got in from the surf and it's empty now and a fair bit bigger. Good luck getting out. It took me 3 goes and then there's the sweep.
With the swell expected to pick up today, you really need to work hard for your waves.
And to the guy who got ripped across the button at low tide at about 9am, WTF were you thinking paddling out there at the start of the set? You are one seriously lucky bastard to get through that episode without damage to board and body.
I think I just surfed with you vl.
6-8ft, clean faces and 5 guys out. Bells.
I was at Winki battling the rip. It was a weird swell with heaps of power. Lots of waves in the sets and then it would be 3ft for a few minutes. So hard paddling out through the froth.
That was a lot of fun
You on red board?
Haven't you ever watched catfish?
Just joking VL :-)
I'm a little slow belly. You'll have to explain that one to me with simple words and one sentence paragraphs.
Its a TV show where they expose fake online profiles.
You're a good egg VL and you bring colour and life to the comments section.
Nice guys!
So 2/5 were Swellnet commentators, haha.
Was out there on a red board at Bells, some fun ones amongst some lulls. Harder than usual getting out for sure!
Well that must have been a different swell compared to where I was closer to town. It was good size but the lump and bump in it was horrible, and the sweep was right up. Heaps of push in it for the size, but the wind down south must have been blowing on it a long way cos the chop on it was quite deep in the water. After yesterday's crowd madness I couldn't face going to the reefs proper. Lucky nobody knows about tomorrow.