Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 18th September)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday exposed beaches, Saturday afternoon Surf Coast, Sunday

Recap

Average onshore waves across most locations yesterday morning with a good sized S/SW groundswell, improving into the afternoon around Torquay as winds eased back and the swell straightened up.

This morning the surf is a little smaller again but much cleaner with 3ft waves on the Surf Coast and waves to 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Later this afternoon our first pulse of SW groundswell is due to fill in, kicking the Surf Coast to 3-5ft late and 6ft+ to the east as winds go sea breezey.

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This week and weekend (Sep 19 - 22)

This afternoon's pulse of SW groundswell was generated by a pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale NW winds moving through our swell window, with a much larger S/SW groundswell due after dark from a stronger storm-force fetch of trailing W'ly winds.

This fetch was longer lived and well angled in our swell window, with the long-period swell arriving overnight and peaking early tomorrow morning to 6-8ft across the Surf Coast and the 8-10ft range on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula.

The swell will ease all day and winds are going to be tricky to work around, only favouring selected spots with a moderate to fresh NE tending N/NE breeze. Into the afternoon as the swell eases more options should open up, more so Friday with the swell easing further from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east under strong but easing N/NE winds.

A low point in swell is expected Saturday morning, ahead of a new inconsistent W/SW groundswell into the afternoon and Sunday morning.

The source of this swell is a strong but distant polar front projecting up and into WA before weakening rapidly when pushing under WA. The strength of this system has been downgraded a touch since Monday resulting in a slight downgrade in the expected size.

We should see the Surf Coast building to the 3ft range into the mid-late afternoon and 4-5ft+ to the east and winds are still a little uncertain as the models diverge on a trough moving through Friday evening. The morning might be dicey but another approaching front looks to swing winds to the W/NW through the afternoon with the building swell.

Sunday looks great as the swell eases back from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively with N/NW winds persisting most of the day.

Following this there's nothing too significant on the cards for next week at this stage with the size slowly trailing away with less consistent long-range mid-period swells on the cards. Therefore make the most of the coming days and weekend.