Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th July)

Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow and Friday morning, both locations early Saturday - Surf Coast from later morning, Surf Coast Sunday and Monday

Recap

Great conditions across the Surf Coast all day yesterday and across selected spots to the east with a slow increase in new long-period W/SW groundswell. The Surf Coast was 3-4ft, with sets showing to 5ft in the afternoon, though inconsistent and then kicking to 4-6ft by dark on the magnets.

The swell peaked overnight but we're still seeing great large sets on the Surf Coast this morning to 6ft on the magnets, larger to the east but best in protected locations. The swell will ease slowly into the afternoon but a reinforcing SW groundswell should keep 4-5ft waves hitting the Surf Coast, 6ft to occasionally 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula with persistent NW winds.

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This week and weekend (Jul 25 - 28)

The coming days will be really fun on the Surf Coast with the swell easing back further into tomorrow to 3-4ft, 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but a new W/SW groundswell is due into the late afternoon, holding all day Friday to a similar size.

This is still and has been generated by a mid-latitude front passing under WA, with a fetch of W/NW gales projected through our western swell window.

Conditions tomorrow will remain great for the Surf Coast with offshore NW winds, possibly tending more N/NW towards dark.

Friday morning will be clean again, but get in before lunch as a NW breeze will shift SW late morning.

The swell looks to ease a touch into Saturday from 3ft+ and 4-6ft respectively across both regions and we're now looking at an early N'ly breeze, shifting more NW through the morning and then W/NW into the afternoon.

Another reinforcing W/SW groundswell is due Sunday across the state, produced by a slimmer and more distant fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales, followed by a small but strengthening post-frontal W/SW fetch.

An initial increase Sunday should keep 3ft+ waves hitting the Surf Coast and 4-6ft sets to the east, with the trailing fetch producing a slightly bigger swell for late in the day but more so Monday morning to 3-4ft and 6ft respectively.

Winds on Sunday will hold out of the NW, similar Monday ahead of a shift to the W/NW into the afternoon, shifting gusty S/SE on Tuesday in the wake of a trough as the swell eases.

Winds will continue to create poor conditions on Wednesday as the swell drops further, possibly lingering out of the SE Thursday with smaller, leftover waves. Longer term there's nothing too significant on the cards so make the most of the coming clean days.