Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 22nd July)

Best Days: Surf Coast every day, selected locations to the east later Thursday

Recap

Good waves across more exposed breaks and selected parts of the coast Saturday with a new W/SW groundswell easing from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east.

Yesterday started small and clean on the Surf Coast, bumpy to the east and a new W/SW swell spiked into the afternoon offering fun waves for those on the coast. The swell has eased back into this morning from a clean 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula under fresh northerly winds.

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This week and weekend (Jul 23 - 28)

We've got a great week of waves ahead for the Surf Coast with a large, long-period W/SW groundswell followed by plenty of reinforcing energy and persistent offshore winds until Friday.

Over the weekend, a significant frontal progression developed south-west of WA, with a pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds setting in motion an active sea state for a stronger storm-force fetch of W/SW winds to move over, in our western swell window.

The frontal system is currently south of WA and continuing to aim a fetch of W/SW gales through our western swell window, with severe-gale W/SW winds in our south-western swell window (generating a reinforcing swell on the backside of the event Wednesday afternoon).

We should see the swell building steadily all day tomorrow, starting from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and peaking into the late afternoon to a large 6ft on the swell magnets (possibly the rare bigger cleanup), and 8-10ft on the Mornington Peninsula. The best thing about this progression is that all the storm activity will stay west of us, with persistent (though strong at times) NW-W/NW winds throughout near the whole week.

Tomorrow will see fresh to strong NW winds most of the day, possibly tending more W/NW later afternoon, and then W/NW-NW winds Wednesday as the swell eases slowly from 5-6ft and 8ft+ respectively across both regions.

The swell will drop a bit more into Thursday morning, but a new W/SW groundswell is due to build later in the day and peak Friday, generated by a good fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales moving in and under WA over the coming days.

The Surf Coast will likely hang around 3-4ft Thursday and Friday with 6ft surf to the east, and with a NW tending N/NW breeze on the former, opening up a few more options and then N/NW winds early Friday ahead of a shallow SW change around midday.

The change will be linked to a weakening front moving across us, with winds reverting back to the NW on Saturday. Surf wise, the swell will ease just a touch more from Friday, but another storm strengthening south-west of WA later this week will produce another top up in W/SW swell for late in the day Saturday but more so Sunday.

We're looking at 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast again and 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with a W/NW tending SW breeze. Longer term the outlook slows down a little, so make the most of the coming run of surf.