Continuation of good Surf Coast waves, very large next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th May)
Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, protected spots for experienced surfers Wednesday and Thursday
Recap
Great waves all day across both coasts yesterday with 3ft of new W/SW swell on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves to the east with favourable offshore winds.
This morning the swell was similar size and clean again across all locations, but Cape Sorell has risen a little more so we should see a touch more size with 4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets during the day and 5-6ft+ waves to the east. Winds will strengthen into the afternoon and tend more N/NW on the Mornington Peninsula.
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
This weekend and next week (May 25 – 31)
A further increase in W/SW groundswell due through today will ease into tomorrow, but slowed by a reinforcing pule of SW groundswell. This was generated on the tail of the slow moving low linked to our current swell and should keep the Surf Coast up around 3-4ft tomorrow morning, 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, if not for the rare bigger cleanup.
Winds will be great for the Surf Coast and out of the NW and fresh, tending W/NW while locations to the east will be bumpy.
Sunday's new W/SW swell has been upgraded a little further from Wednesday with a tight and intense low that's currently moving in from the west expected to maintain its strength while moving closer towards us this evening and then slowly across us tomorrow afternoon and evening.
The Surf Coast magnets should see 3-4ft sets, smaller in more protected spots with the westerly direction, 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will continue to favour the Surf Coast, fresh from the NW and strengthening into the afternoon from the W/NW.
The secondary system that was forecast to track too north of our swell window looks to now just stay within our western swell window, with a fetch of strong W/SW winds aimed towards us tomorrow evening, reaching gale-force as the front pushes through Bass Strait on Sunday.
This will will produce an additional increase in size for Monday morning, but mid-period and close-spaced in nature, with it easing in size from 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east. Winds don't look great and still onshore in the wake of Sunday's front with a fresh W/SW breeze across all locations. With the timing of the front the likelihood of an early W'ly around Torquay looks lower than normal.
We then look at the large and powerful SW tending S/SW groundswell event due through the middle of the week, owing to a strong and pronounced node of the Long Wave Trough stalling across the south-east of the country.
On the back of Sunday's front we'll see a significant polar frontal system forming south of the country on Monday with a broad and elongated fetch of severe-gale SW winds being initially projected towards us, before becoming more stretched out and reaching storm-force in our southern swell window on Tuesday. This core storm-force S/SW fetch will slowly project towards us on top an active sea state before the low continues east and out of our swell window on Wednesday.
We'll see a very large, long-period and significant SW tending S/SW groundswell event, building Tuesday from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east, to an easy 6ft later in the day on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.
The most size will be seen on Wednesday and likely into the afternoon with sets pushing to an easy 10ft (if not bigger) off the Surf Coast magnets and 12ft+ to the east. Winds on Tuesday will be tricky but decent for protected spots and strong from the W/NW, but come Wednesday we'll see fresh to strong W/SW tending SW winds, creating poor conditions. There's a chance for an early W'ly on the Surf Coast for very experienced surfers but it will be large and raw.
With the slow moving nature of the Long Wave Trough east later next week, winds will unfortunately linger from the SW on the backside of the swell into the rest of the week. One bonus is that the mountains will see plenty of snow to kick off the season.
Longer term we've got some new good SW groundswell on the cards later next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Don't say 'good waves'! Vic Local will be horrified Craigos. The coast will be littered with Melbourne blow ins with their fancy beach houses!!
Ahh the old sense of ownership cause you live a bit closer...
Looks like a nightmare size over the weekend. Not big enough to scare people, but big enough for clowns to get into trouble. It's getting a bit silly down here with guys paddling out to the heavier breaks with zero skills in the ocean. eg People who "duck dive" by chucking boards between their legs at the very last second, European couples riding rental minimals, guys who paddle for a wave and then throw their boards down the face at some bloke who's been riding for 100m. If you can't surf, go to Torquay point.
Probs all the people who went to your surf school ay fella ;-0
Is that the mythical surf school that only exists on Swellnet? Lucky for me make believe businesses don't need to pay GST.
cheers vic local just wanted to say thanks for your awesome advice that you gave when I went to your surf school, and those secret spots that will be great to try once I get more experienced. I can definitely recommend his surf school to anyway that wants to improve there surfing
didn't you hear VL? One of Scomo's election promises was for Make Believe businesses to pay GST!
Ouch
Oh shit you’ve been boned
ha
Hmm correct about the nightmare size, longer waits between sets and not as many sections breaking it up today, but still not hard to get a bag full of great waves
Wow - VL, surprisingly your dumb prediction didn't materialise...yet again! Surfed low tide Bells on Sunday morning with some lovely vibes in the water. Must have been that "nightmare size" which keeps the 60 year old crusty locals on 10' mals at home with the kids!
European couples eh? Sounds like Gary G might have to step in.
Gary G would be good for some relationship counselling when Helga gets drags across the button and Sven is in deep poo for suggesting they surf at winikpop.
Fuck, just saw the Collins St boardriders packing the rangey with a few fresh JS sleds, heading straight for the west coast heavy spots!
Probably a few ANZ execs who need to clear their heads :-)
Wish they'd stick to doing donuts in sports cars on golf courses.
I agree with Vic Local, this is a very true situation down here, Clowns everywhere......
Plenty of fish busting up the surface out there this evening. No doubt there are sharks following. Big ones......
Yeh, I saw all the birds on the surface late this arvo, dive bombing out at sea, IMO it's unusual too see that extent in Victoria?. It felt more akind to my experiences at Balina, although there, they are just beyond the breakers, that place has always been scary to surf.
not unusual at all just bait fish and salmon :)
Heavier breaks - LOL
I reckon everything VicLocal says in this thread & earlier ones is pretty much spot on.
How about Swellnet changes the titles of its forecasts to something like "Forecast issued Friday, 24 May, 11am" or whatever? Too many clues are given away in the title.
That way both the paying punters and clueless cheapskates get what they pay for.
Well said Fairy Nuff. Subscribers get better value for money with a generic headline. It's really hard to argue with his/her logic on this one.
I think ANZ execs are capable of reading a 7 day wind and swell forecast on any weather site. Could probably work out how to view a few live cams too.
But its probably the wording in the forecast notes heading that really makes their decisions for them.
All you fellas trash talking should post their best surfing photo and prove their righteousness!
No worries Plops. You go first and set the scale.
No worries, my insta is @sweetestofdijions.
Haha nailed it plops...if ur a local and shred there shouldn’t be an issue with getting waves... in thick crowds if u position yourself well you’re only ever contending with a few blokes really
I live in emerald and from the Gold Coast originally so def not local but aways get plenty
"in thick crows (sic) if u position itself well you’re only ever contending with a few blokes really"
That's the biggest load of crap I've ever seen on this forum. If you're surfing Victorian point breaks and think that good positioning means contending with only a few blokes, you've obviously paddled straight past people already waiting in good position.
Today was the perfect example. It was seriously inconsistent and I saw the best long term locals paddling in because they were 10th in line for a wave, the 2 wave sets were 30 minutes apart, and they don't paddle inside other locals because it's a shit thing to do to people waiting even longer.
Queenslanders are fucked in the water. That "furthest inside has priority no matter what" attitude doesn't fly in Victoria. And I will give you some free advice, it doesn't work in Indo either.
Congratulations V L, you just packed more rash generalizations into 3 paragraphs than a whole gaggle of rich non-locals with their polished custom Chinese sleds could ever hope to write.
@tarzan, do you surf the west coast points?
If you don't then shut up. You know nothing.
If you do then you'd know vl is spot on, at least for the best, visible, popular points.
So, where do you surf?
The problem is these point you speak of are incredibly easy waves to surf. There’s no rips, no double ups, no real surprises and lots of indications as to when a set is coming.
I’m not saying the crowd is surfing these waves well, just stating reason for why problem is such over there.
In the past 12 months Ive surfed lots of places between Exmouth and Sydney crip.
In the past 30 years Ive surfed on 4 continents in about 30 odd countries.
I live within 1000 metres of a good surf beach but prefer to think of myself as a traveler than a local.
(Yes I was born there, I grew up there and still live there)
I agree, you are right, I know very little about this sort of retarded mentality......
Spot on Vic Local. These past few swells have been quite inconsistent and for me takes the joy out if it. Too many out relative to how many waves there have been going around even at the slightly lesser frequented spots. Lots of drop ins at the main spots which I tend to avoid on these type of days.
Consistency is hard to predict but for me it's one area that could be better reported on. The ratings each morning have been around 7 and 8 out of 10 and although the quality is definately that it doesn't paint the bigger picture with how many waves are actually coming through. It's been a terrific run conditions wise but I say bring on the raw winter swells!
No wonder you guys down there haven't turned out any decent surfers in 4 or is it now 5 decades? When you are out in the brine you're taking off on the fat outside shoulder or else here on swellnet posting rubbish about those that can surf. Live on the wild side and try getting a little deeper it might improve your surfing.
just for the record my personal swell rating for this morning was 4/10 def no where near 7. but still had fun.
Haha torquay crew bitching about etiquette.. what a joke.
Their groms are no better.. lol
rishwil. Most crew down here are always going to give groms and beginners a little slack on the beach breaks and places like torquay point. Gotta learn the ropes somewhere buddy.
The big problems happen when beginners start trying to surf Bells. Winki, Bird Rock etc. The other menace in the water are blow in surfers who don't give a fuck about anyone else in the water and continue to paddle inside thinking that gives them the right to the very next set. And don't get me started on fuckers who can't / won't look left on a right hand point break.
"Sorry mate, I didn't see you there". "That's because you didn't fucking look".
You would all get a role on housewifes of Victoria. Bitchn about anything and everything. Just chill
Nah........'Keeping Up The Image Housewives of Torquay/Jan Juc'. School pick up in BMW SUV with 3228 and 'Winkipop Industries' sticker on the back window. Always wearing active wear suckin on take away coffee while bitching about too much development here these days cause they've been here like 5 - 10 years ya know!
Meanwhile......I've had a shitload of great waves the past 2 weeks. Haven't been bothered by any of the above mentioned cunts. Just gotta pick your time and location girls.
Ringmaster spot on. When will we all wake up, the coast is shared and belongs to all Australians. Where has the sense of entitlement and ownership originated- Britain of course. This horrible non genetic streak still exists in us and it appears that others and VicLocal has a huge dose of it. I’m 54, born on the coast, surfed all my life on the Surf Coast and have to deal with dinosaurs and troglodytes like VicLocal and others who still push the barrow of localism. If I see another sign saying ‘Respect the Locals’ I’ll spew up. Just respect all. They are the only spoilers of our coast, the last bastion of localism coupled with that ugly mob at Pt. Leo. When will these self righteous ego maniacs retreat to their caves. In today’s age of global internet homogenisation where everyone everywhere is doing the same as everyone everywhere else it’s only logic that we we will all end up in the same place, the Surf Coast, much to the chagrin of VicLocal.
How about we all just drop this locals crap.
On another note, I comment under my real name and will never hide behind a pseudonym or some evil moniker like more than 90% of you do.
Very true Brad, as a born and bred local myself although only 18yo it means alot to us younger crew when the veterans are willing to respect all instead of a handful of other locals which inflates the anger and bedlam in the lineup because the out of town blokes get treated like shit.
Pt Leo ha ha ha what a shithouse cluster of waves that is! Anyone who tries to play the heavy local there needs to take a swim around seal rocks with a tuna head tied to their Johnson
"How about we all just drop this locals crap."
It would be sweet if we could do that, but it would mean the West Coast Points turn into the Gold Coast points.
The reality is, our ground swells just aren't that consistent. Without locals setting a line, it just becomes a pure shitfight with people paddling inside each other and burning each other. Most of the really aggressive and nasty surfs happen when there's not enough regulars in the water.
Try and look at this from the point of view of people who surf the same break whenever it gets good. They've been surfing together for 20 + years and all know and respect each other. They take turns. They know who's been waiting the longest. They don't paddle inside each other. Can you understand why they burn non-regulars, who catch a set, paddle straight past everyone in the prime takeoff spot, and think they have the right to catch the next set?
"Where has the sense of entitlement and ownership originated- Britain of course."
Nah mate.
Do a little research on aboriginal nations/territories and they way they dealt with the issue.
Think you'll find it's the modern globalised white man's urban world that is the disrespectful, entitled one.
People show up with zero clue about giving respect to gain respect.
Well written FreddyWaters, after all, regardless of age we are all surfers. Surfing is an alluring pastime of which we all enjoy. Regardless of age or skill level, respect others opportunities to put themselves in comfortable and uncomfortable situations to test their mettle, isn’t that how we all learn. I don’t recall cracking open the surfing egg and being an instant pro. We must all remind ourselves that we were at some time in our surfing life a complete kook.
How about we champion surfers who make a late take off, get a good barrel or simply produce a great ride. When was the last time you said to a surfer as he or she paddles back to line up , Hey great ride, you ripped, whatever ?
It’s easy to manifest a good vibe whilst surfing. I catch a wave, paddle back out and slot myself in the mental queue and just wait my turn.
Leave your EGOs at home and don’t bring them to the surf and give young upcoming surfers or
surfers from afar the opportunity to enjoy what I’ve been enjoying for 40years.
Sorry VL. Gotta pull you up on that post. Proper localism was pretty well gone by the late 80s / early 90s around here. Just too many people passing through or moving here to the point that it just got too diluted to be of significance. Winks & Bells get it all. Different crowd pretty well every day going back to at least early 2000s which was when I gradually stopped surfing there. You’ve been here 20 years.......no one chucking rocks at any blow ins paddling out at Bird Rock in that time which was what happened (as well as other nasty shit) back in the 80’s. That was ‘local’ law and order.
Ya just have to accept the fact that if you wanna surf the spots you mentioned when they’re good, that it will always be crowded in 2019 and not just occupied by ‘local crew’. Whoever they are these days?
I reckon Freeride is onto something with his comment re "aboriginal nations/territories and they way they dealt with the issue."
The welcome to country ceremony is a test for those seeking to enter traditional lands. If you pass the test by offering humility and respect, you get welcomed in and offered safe passage.
It's pretty much the same with "localism" down here. Spend enough time in the water, respect those who have been here longer, and you will eventually get respect back. Time in the line up counts. It's everything. Paddle out thinking you're entitled to every wave, then you don't pass the test. It's that simple.
Well Vic Local , you, like me, are entitled to pass
on your viewpoint , but that was gold . More dinosaur logic, you must be drinking your own bath water that’s embroiled with testosterone bath salts. ‘Most of the really aggressive and nasty surf happens when there is not enough regulars in the water.’ My view is very converse to the one you share. Well, I almost choked on my smashed avocado roll I just finished whilst using the BMW to drop off the kids to private school in the 3228 Sector. Man o man, as a society we still have a long way to go when it comes to equality in all facets of life.
Fortunately, Swellnet provides us with this social platform to share and air our views. It’s all just light hearted banter and really when you think about it, it’s just a 1st world problem. Think about it when you surf next in a so called 3rd world country. We are an over privileged nation that unfortunately really doesn’t appreciate much at all, starting with its original inhabitants.
Fuck off Brad, with all your well-reasoned arguments. That's not what this forum is about. If you aren't into generalisations, hubris, taking the piss, and just plain sarcasm, it's time to find a more suitable place to spread your logic.
Vic Local. Great line you’ve posted.
‘Paddle out thinking you are entitled to every wave, then you don’t past the test. It’s that simple.’
Very good indeed.
Hey ringmaster.
I know you've been here a decade longer than me, so I'm interested in your opinions re "proper localism".
How's this for an example. Say a long term local was surfing Steps (just for an example) and another bloke had been really pissing him off for a few years. The long term local then snaps and holds the other blokes head under water multiple times. Is that hard "proper localism" or just a little bit of a disagreement?
That 'example' is nothing to do with localism.
Just the need to deal with a dead set FUCKWIT.
Seriously though, these have to be the most entertaining Forecaster Notes of them all yeah? I read the SE QLD - N NSW ones and mostly seems like people talking about the waves etc
It’s nuts huh?
It's rude to paddle out at a break and disrupt the waves to surfers ratio.. unless you're from torquay apparently.
There's no such thing as a born and bred torquay local.. unless you had a home birth, your from geelong lol
Unfortunately vic local youve been overun.
The good old days are gone
They only exist where crowds dont
and with Melb growing at 100k+ per year its only going to get much much worse
And the one giant suburb that will soon stretch from Torquay to Geelong , plus the the growth on the Bellarine , it’s not a pretty picture.
We're all equal and the ocean doesn't belong to anyone blah blah blah.. but locals go to the front of the line, blow ins go to the back.. that's just the way it is cnts.. lol
Australia is my backyard
Entertaining stuff. I do recall Vic Local saying he was Melbourne based on another thread a while back, which kind of makes the locals only sentiment a bit rich. Enjoy your waves when you get them.
So I’m Melbourne based now and own a local surf school? Seriously guys. Get your shit together and make up a plausible bullshit back story for me.
I had an earnest diatribe drafted up and deleted it.
Only thing to say is that there are a pretty well-defined mob of regulars who surf Bells/Winky, so that "no locals since the 80s" line is complete crap. Just because only a handful of the old school are out there anymore doesn't mean it hasn't got a core crew. I see the same faces day in, day out. All pretty well taking turns and rarely dropping in unless someone jumps the queue.
And city blow ins like me that regularly surf those spots know who those guys are and not bother about paddling for the same waves etc. Show some respect and be happy to be out there. Goes a long way.
"so that "no locals since the 80s" line is complete crap"
I said 'proper localism' NOT locals ya muppet. Of course there's local crew living around here that have been here for decades and surf the same spots when they're on. Anybody can paddle out at any of the reefs around here and you're not gunna get hassled cause you don't live here in 2019. That sort of shit did happen years ago but it's non existent now because of the sheer amount of people passing through not to mention the massive population increase in the area.
Pfft.. torquay brazzos with their PC etiquette
Do onto others, you know the drill
SUP ok to come to winky?
what do you expect when you call yourselves "the surf coast"? i hear it was vic local's idea