Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 3rd October)

Best Days: Both coasts Saturday and Sunday mornings, beaches Monday morning

Recap

Early light winds and good waves on the Surf Coast reefs yesterday, great on the beaches with sets hanging in at a strong 4ft, with large clean waves on the beaches to the east, remaining clean all day as the swell eased a touch.

This morning winds were out of the west, favouring protected spots on the Surf Coast along with a new SW groundswell maintaining 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves on the magnets.

An onshore change has since moved up the coast and this will spoil conditions for the rest of the week across exposed breaks.

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This week and weekend (Oct 4 - 7)

Our large and powerful long-period SW groundswell for tomorrow is still on track, but so are the poor onshore winds.

Satellite observations have confirmed a very impressive pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds and post-frontal storm-force W/SW winds in our south-western swell window yesterday and today.

The groundswell is due to arrive overnight, peaking through the day tomorrow to 6-8ft on the sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets, 10ft+ to the east but winds will be fresh from the S tending SE in the wake of a surface trough pushing through today.

This trough is still forecast to develop into a low off the southern NSW coast and stall through this weekend before weakening early next week.

This will affect our local winds, with onshore SE winds due to persist through Friday as the large SW groundswell eases from 4-6ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 6-8ft to the east. This easing trend will be slowed by a strong trailing polar front on the back of the low that's generated tomorrow's swell.

Our window of more variable winds for Saturday morning is looking good as a localised surface trough moves in across both regions. Local light offshore breezes are due before swinging onshore but without much strength into the afternoon along with a further drop in size from 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Sunday morning is looking smaller again as the swell continues to fade and a deepening and eastward tracking surface trough across South Australia looks to swing winds locally offshore again.

A small new S/SW groundswell should be seen into the afternoon, generated by a relatively weak polar front sliding in under the country, producing a fetch of strong to near gale-force W/NW winds.

The Surf Coast looks to hang in at 3ft on the sets across swell magnets with 3-5ft waves to the east, easing into Monday under NE tending E winds.

Longer term a small new S/SW groundswell may be seen Tuesday but the surface trough over South Australia is likely to drift across us as a strong high moves in, bringing SE winds, improving mid-late week, but with no decent sized swells. More on this Friday.