Large SW groundswell with onshore winds, improving into the weekend
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 3rd October)
Best Days: Both coasts Saturday and Sunday mornings, beaches Monday morning
Recap
Early light winds and good waves on the Surf Coast reefs yesterday, great on the beaches with sets hanging in at a strong 4ft, with large clean waves on the beaches to the east, remaining clean all day as the swell eased a touch.
This morning winds were out of the west, favouring protected spots on the Surf Coast along with a new SW groundswell maintaining 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves on the magnets.
An onshore change has since moved up the coast and this will spoil conditions for the rest of the week across exposed breaks.
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
This week and weekend (Oct 4 - 7)
Our large and powerful long-period SW groundswell for tomorrow is still on track, but so are the poor onshore winds.
Satellite observations have confirmed a very impressive pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds and post-frontal storm-force W/SW winds in our south-western swell window yesterday and today.
The groundswell is due to arrive overnight, peaking through the day tomorrow to 6-8ft on the sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets, 10ft+ to the east but winds will be fresh from the S tending SE in the wake of a surface trough pushing through today.
This trough is still forecast to develop into a low off the southern NSW coast and stall through this weekend before weakening early next week.
This will affect our local winds, with onshore SE winds due to persist through Friday as the large SW groundswell eases from 4-6ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 6-8ft to the east. This easing trend will be slowed by a strong trailing polar front on the back of the low that's generated tomorrow's swell.
Our window of more variable winds for Saturday morning is looking good as a localised surface trough moves in across both regions. Local light offshore breezes are due before swinging onshore but without much strength into the afternoon along with a further drop in size from 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Sunday morning is looking smaller again as the swell continues to fade and a deepening and eastward tracking surface trough across South Australia looks to swing winds locally offshore again.
A small new S/SW groundswell should be seen into the afternoon, generated by a relatively weak polar front sliding in under the country, producing a fetch of strong to near gale-force W/NW winds.
The Surf Coast looks to hang in at 3ft on the sets across swell magnets with 3-5ft waves to the east, easing into Monday under NE tending E winds.
Longer term a small new S/SW groundswell may be seen Tuesday but the surface trough over South Australia is likely to drift across us as a strong high moves in, bringing SE winds, improving mid-late week, but with no decent sized swells. More on this Friday.
Comments
You know how too talk dirty to me Craigo
Yep this is your time Nick!
Very impressive readings off Cape Sorell.. 6-10m @ 18s.
Yikes! Incoming
Hmmmm, not many options though for the next 2 days and the charts are suggesting that the switch has been activated, back into the summer Easterly quarter winds regime very early this year?
Why do swellnets forecasts display such a differnt swell angle to point Nepean buoy?
There are a number of factors affecting the swell direction registered near shore, including tidal currents, local bathymetry steering etc. And our virtual buoy point isn't at exactly the same spot.
You'll probably find this article interesting.. Buoys Follow One Direction
Just had a quick look at the beach after work. Some macking sets.
All the sponno lords will be busy posting insta photos of the jewel of vicco tonight
Really GF? Don't wanna say too much but the winds sure whould have been an issue, no?
Yeah it was definitely going the right way late today
Fuck the West Coast has it good. Great winter then come over and entertain at the circus with their snake charming skills and ego showcasing.
Stickered up boards getting dropped back out to the peak making me wonder how they even got stickers if they cant paddle?
Getting dropped back to the peak is poor form, that calls for a drop in or burn if they get another set wave.
Hey Nick. Were you actually out at ....... surfing yourself or was that just something you heard on the grapevine at the pub last night?
I saw it on insta, the same kooks always post pics of it unfortunately
For the arvo session. Yeah
Text can be read out of context but has my comment bothered you ringo?
Not at all mate! I don't even go there anymore due to the circus it's become when it's on. Last surfed it when it was just tinny's moored there and everyone 's paddling (many years ago). I know a few of the young guns over here of which some were probably surfing out there yesterday. All pretty switched on and respectful and surf really fucking well in all conditions. No doubt they would plough past crew lolly gagging down the line but would be surprised if they were hassling blokes already in pole position or thereabouts when they got back out there.
30 blokes is not really a circus in this day and age and during school holidays. Plenty of waves for everyone in those conditions. You sound miserable Nicholas