Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 29th August)

Best Days: Both coasts Thursday, Friday afternoon Surf Coast, Saturday morning Surf Coast, both coasts Monday morning and Tuesday

Recap

Much better waves yesterday with lighter and more variable offshore winds across both coasts with some slight lump and bumpy early. The Surf Coast eased back from 2-3ft, with 3-5ft surf to the east, smaller this morning but cleaner across the exposed beaches.

A new long-period SW groundswell is due to arrive later today with weak E/SE sea breezes.

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This week and weekend (Aug 30 – Sep 2)

The new long-period SW groundswell due later today should peak overnight/early tomorrow and ease off slowly through the day.

The swell will be a little inconsistent but should provide good surf in the 3ft range on the Surf Coast (odd bigger one at magnets) and 4-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under a moderate to fresh N/NE breeze. This will favour the exposed beaches across the state.

Friday looks small and only suited to keen surfers with an early N'ly breeze, tending NW through the morning and W/NW into the afternoon.

A new S/SW groundswell is due to fill in through the afternoon and hold Saturday, produced by a polar fetch of W/NW gales, followed by W/SW gales.

The W/NW fetch will generate Friday afternoon's increase, with the Surf Coast due to reach 3ft on the sets, with 4-5ft+ waves to the east.

The trailing W/SW fetch should keep similar sized sets hitting the state on Saturday morning, and an afternoon increase shown on the models isn't likely in my opinion.

The Surf Coast will be cleanest on Saturday with a morning W/NW breeze, swinging W/SW-SW into the afternoon.

This change will be linked to a vigorous polar front projecting up and across Tasmania, bringing with it a large SW tending S/SW groundswell.

We'll see the polar front form south-southwest of WA tomorrow afternoon projecting a fetch of SW gales up through our south-western swell window before passing under Tassie Saturday evening through our southern swell window.

A large SW tending S/SW groundswell should be seen, filling in through Sunday and peaking into the afternoon. The Surf Coast is expected to reach 5-6ft, with 8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula, but as touched on in the last couple of updates, winds look generally poor and out of the S/SW in the wake of the swell producing front clipping the state.

There's an outside chance for a dawn W/NW wind around Torquay, but we'll review this Friday.

Monday is looking cleaner though still likely lumpy with a light variable breeze and easing S/SW swell from 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east.

Looking further into next week and a strong long-period S/SW groundswell is due to fill in Tuesday, produced by a vigorous polar low forming late in our swell window, south-west of Tassie over the weekend. At this stage we're looking at good 3-4ft sets developing across the Surf Coast Tuesday with 6ft surf to the east under N/NE winds, but more on this Friday.