Fun all weekend, acute west swell for Tuesday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 8th June)
Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, beaches both coasts Sunday, early Tuesday east of Melbourne, afternoon to the west
Recap
Tiny to flat surf west of Melbourne yesterday, with small bumpy waves on the Mornington Peninsula beaches, cleaner across Phillip Island.
Today a small and acute W'ly swell has provided 1-2ft sets at 13th Beach, but nothing of not around Torquay and 3ft sets to the east, but cleanest in protected spots.
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Today's small acute W'ly swell was generated earlier this week as a severe low developed off the WA South Coast, generating an initial patchy of W'ly winds in our western swell window.
Since then we've seen the storm consolidate and push east while generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds ideally towards us.
A moderate sized W/SW groundswell is being generated, with the front dipping east-southeast under Tassie this afternoon and evening.
We may see a late pulse in size today, but a peak is expected tomorrow morning with waves in the 4ft range on the Surf Coast (likely 5ft bombs at magnets) and 6ft to occasionally 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, easing into the afternoon.
Winds will be best on the Surf Coast reefs and protected spots to the east tomorrow morning with a W/NW breeze, holding until about midday before shifting S/SW but without much strength. This should create good conditions for most of the day west of Melbourne.
Into Sunday the swell will continue to ease, dropping from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and the 4ft+ range to the east with variable tending N/NE winds, giving into weak E/SE sea breezes (possibly variable).
This will favour the beaches across both coasts, while come Monday the swell will be very minimal under a fresh N/NE breeze. The Surf Coast is likely to be tiny, while there may be the odd 2ft+ set on the Mornington Peninsula, but keep your expectations low.
Into Tuesday some new acute W'ly groundswell is expected, generated by a strong but poorly positioned mid-latitude frontal progression that's currently projecting up towards WA.
This system will sit north of our swell window and as a result, I wouldn't expect any major size on the Surf Coast when it fills in Tuesday, with better potential on the Mornington Peninsula.
A much weaker fetch of strong W/SW winds generated more favourably in our swell window Sunday will generate a weaker mid-period W/SW swell for the afternoon on the Surf Coast, but we'll be lucky to see anything above 2ft+.
So coming back to the morning and the Surf Coast will be lucky to see anything over 1-2ft, with inconsistent 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, building into the afternoon to 2ft+ (2-3ft 13th Beach) and the 5ft range respectively.
Winds are still uncertain as the models diverge on the speed on an approaching trough from the west, with ECMWF seeing early N/NW winds ahead of a shift to the W/NW through the day, while GFS has W/NW tending W/SW winds. We'd rather the former, especially with the lack of size on the Surf Coast, so check back here Monday for an update on this.
Behind this trough we're expected to see a flurry of strong Southern Ocean storm activity south-west of WA, generating plenty of swell from later next week/weekend but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
is the swell large enough to produce waves in lorne on saturday or sunday?
literally 2 ft dripple to VERY occasional 3ft all day on surfcoast?????? so much for 4ft with occasional 5ft bomb at magnets, swell has no power at all, the 'good' forecast seemed to haved lured more people out this morning too... 30 guys on 2ft dripples
Nothing worse than surfing dripples
I would be interested in an explanation on this one. By all indications (Sorrell and Pt. Nepean) was expecting SOMETHING...there was enough size reported on Peninsula and the island to translate to maybe 3ft in Torquay. Was 2.1m sig, 3.0m max at 207 deg. with a 12-13 sec period this morning at the heads. Was the direction too west or not enough fetch??
Very perplexing to see the Surf Coast come in under budget yesterday. I haven't been watching Southern Ocean charts so I'll let Craig have a look at it tomorrow, but based on surf observations in SA it may have been the result of too much west in the direction.
Also, consider this - imagine you hadn't seen the surf yesterday, but woke up this morning, and compared today's Sorell and Pt Nepean buoy data with yesterday's data (see below) - you'd have assumed Saturday came in within expectations.
I've just taken a couple of snaps from the 13th Beach surfcam and there are occasional 3-4ft sets, though they weren't there earlier (seems to have started pulsing in the last twenty minutes.. will be interesting to see if this shows up on the Nepean buoy data).
whats johanna looking like for tomoz?
Surfcoastdan. Seriously Dude. STFU.
Being a public holiday on Monday, this weekend was always going to be busy, but with Crowdnet getting all excited again, it's ridiculous. Nearly 70 people at Winki with the vast majority of punters in the water being clueless beginners. And when I say clueless beginners, I mean clueless fucking beginners. Fucking idiots wearing their wetsuits back to front (and inside out) paddling out on rental mals. Dickwads who can't duck dive three foot waves. Slack-jawed muppets who don't look left and fall down the face. One of these fuckwits put a bloke in hospital the other week. Stop mentioning other spots dan. Winki and Bells have been wrecked by online swell reports and the complete fucking circus that follows.
hahah. im pretty certain every surfer from the surfcoast knows about johanna 'viclocal'.
also bells and winki arent busy because of swellnet.. they are busy because they are a tourist spot and because they are two world class waves.. If you dont like crowds dont surf the two most famous surf spots in victoria ( maybe even entire country)
also your saying the circus that follows swellnet?? then why are u on swellnet? why are you checking surf reports if they are bad for surfing and for surf spots.. some people have to travel to surf
I'll answer your questions first up Dan. I never check their reports. I go and have a look at the actual waves. I just come on these forums to call bullshit on their crap forecasts.
My question to you is why do you ask blokes from Sydney their forecast for victoria? On Saturday you acknowledged how wrong they got it and then Sunday you're asking them for a prediction.
Mate, most people know about Johanna, but asking for forecasts on a very public forum is just fucking stupid. Work it out for yourself. Look at a bloody camera at Woolamai or Mornington and then check the swell charts. It's not like these blokes would know what the banks were like down there anyway. The fact you're asking for surf reports for places people go to escape crowds is fucking ridiculous.
Believe it or not there is people who choose to surf depending on the Swellnet report/forecast.
Viclocal is spot on.
I’ll second that viclocal comment.
Best left unsaid danoz!
The muppets who ask if spot x will be good on Saturday arvo don't deserve to be answered. The "I want it now and I want someone else to do the work" generation sadden and sicken me. Use your brain, people. Learn to read weather charts, look at the various wind, weather and tide charts, drive around and learn what the different spots work on, etc. In other words, don't be lazy.
That said, I use swellnet's forecasts, along with all the other aids, to help me decide where I should head, east or west. I'm not lucky enough to live on the coast so I can't just go and look at the waves. But I can choose whether my best bet is the surf coast (and so do I head for my old haunts or dodge the crowds and try lesser spots) or head east.
Back in my day we made our own weather carts.
Very surprised at the lack of size on Saturday morning, yes the swell was west but the storm ideally pushing through the Bight and to see the size still there Sunday morning is even more perplexing.
Looks like the timing was a little off with Cape Sorell steady all day Saturday and the Surf Coast building through the day.
This morning looks great on PI.
Better pack the car. Craig what board would you recommend for these conditions shortboard, minimal, longboard, fish, singleton, twinny, quad, Boog, Sup, Goatboat, Canadian Canoe? Where would be a better option for 3:35.32 pm 13th, Woolamai or Gunnas? Wheres the best banks cheers
You forgot to ask if the council had fixed the pot hole on the third hairpin bend on Blue Johanna Road, and whether it's a blue tac in the ears day or a ear plugs day.
Why don't they just do a tour bus from different suburbs.
West swell , but low period means less refraction as it enters Bass Strait ( more so feels the bottom ) for the last 300-400kms .
The waves i saw were consistent 3 ft with the odd 4 ft on Saturday morning, felt like it was a rather pulsey swell and very directional. I looked at some spots expecting to have more swell and was surpised by the lack of size.I did hear it got a little bigger during the early arvo. Im with Vic local, fucking idiots asking, been spoon fed.