Great period for the Surf Coast
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 28th March)
Best Days: Surf Coast Friday, Saturday, Sunday, early Monday Surf Coast
Recap
Clean pumping waves across the Surf Coast all day yesterday, dropping from 4-5ft early at magnets, down to a less consistent 3ft to occasionally 4ft into the afternoon.
The Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island provided great waves into the afternoon/evening as winds shifted more offshore and the swell straightened up.
This morning there's not much left at all with the swell fading rapidly as expected leaving inconsistent 1-2ft waves on the Surf Coast and windy 3ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula. The swell will continue to fade through the day as a westerly change moves through.
Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl
This week and weekend (Mar 29 – Apr 1)
Tomorrow isn't looking too flash with the surf due to remain small to tiny under a morning W/NW breeze, tending SW into the afternoon.
The Surf Coast isn't due to provide much surf until later in the day when we should start to see signs of a new W/SW groundswell.
This groundswell has and is still being generated by a strong frontal progression that developed east of Heard Island and pushed north-east under WA through this week.
Currently we're seeing a broad fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds projected through our western swell window (generating a good W/SW groundswell), with the storm due to weaken but stall south-west of us tomorrow.
We'll see a polar low form, generating an additional fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds in our south-western swell window tomorrow and Friday morning, producing a reinforcing SW groundswell for Saturday (most likely afternoon).
Coming back to tomorrow and late in the day we might see sets pushing 2ft to occasionally 3ft across swell magnets on the Surf Coast, but Friday will provide the most size with sets to 4-5ft at magnets.
The Mornington Peninsula should see 6-8ft sets on the exposed beaches, and a fresh morning W/NW-NW breeze will give into a W/SW change around midday, favouring the Surf Coast.
The reinforcing SW swell for Saturday should keep sets to 4ft hitting all day on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, with the former being best again with a morning light NW breeze, tending variable ahead of afternoon sea breezes. Locations east of Melbourne should be workable as well with variable breezes likely most of the morning.
Sunday looks great with easing sets from 3ft to possibly 4ft early on the Surf Coast, down to 2-3ft into the afternoon and easing 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under a N/NW tending W/NW breeze ahead of a possible late onshore change. Locations east of Melbourne are likely to see an early N/NE breeze, creating great conditions.
Next week onwards (Apr 2 onwards)
Moving into early next week, we're due to see varying pulses of swell from fast tracking storms through our swell window over the weekend and early next week.
The first will develop Friday evening and project a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds through our south-west swell window, with a fresh pulse of mid-period SW swell due Monday.
The Surf Coast should see surf in the 3ft range, with 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds are still a little dicey with a small weak trough forecast to move through, bringing an onshore change, but we may see early W/NW winds around Torquay. We'll have to review this Friday.
This trough will be associated with a weak front and may bring a small top up in swell Tuesday though with onshore S/SE winds.
Longer term a new S/SW groundswell may be seen Thursday but the best of the period will be from Friday through Sunday.
Comments
Craig - will Friday's swell peak morning or afternoon?
With the breadth and width of the progression and tidal phases I'd expect the swell to be a similar size all day, though maybe most consistent early-mid morning with the incoming tide.
Craig - will Friday's swell peak morning or afternoon?
What wax should I use?
Is the wind going to be NW or WNW?
How many car parking spaces will there be at Boobs?
Do you think a comp leg rope will be enough?
Will it be sunny or partly cloudy?
Is it a hoodie morning on Friday or could I get away with a long sleeved t shirt?
Can you give me a lift to the surf and point me in the direction of the best paddle out spot?
Forgot - how many shots should I have in my coffee and how long before the surf :p
Forgot- To pick up Vic on the way to Beach.
Haha - nice work VL - i know some people call it 'trolling' but i do enjoy sarcasm and you smashed it back within 2 hours of it being posted. Look forward to more good efforts from you over this easter period.
Craig and Green wall no offence intended against your legitimate right to converse over a surf forecast, i am just expect some good reading over here on the lonely coast of the bells contest period after the excellent coverage of SE qld / jetski / quik pro and i reckon Viclocal is the firestarter / troll to get people posting.
Thanks MidWestMonger. I'm sure you'll agree that Vic Local should be on a crowdnet retainer or at least get a cut of the advertising revenue.
i don't think he has what it takes
Viclocal should get back to his roots throwing rocks at surfers paddling out at a particular break around jan juc as well as paddling out with a group of fellow regulars to control the takeoff area disallowing outsiders from taking off on a wave.
What are you saying "get back to his roots"? You obviously missed the rock throwing yesterday. The only problem is, we're running out of decent sized rocks along the cliffs so the boys are now resorting to half house bricks.
There would be plenty of those spare with all the housing estates popping up between Geelong and Bells. Great news for Stunet, Ben and Craig bad news for Viclocal.
Where is this spot Vic Local? I’m driving over from South Oz tonight and would love to add to the crowd there? Please post GPS coordinates here .
Tuesday was a very generous 3-4ft as per the morning report - not complaining!
As for the weekend, forecast looks excellent, it's going to be pandemonium.
Thanks for your timely response Craig- it's appreciated! Usually your forecasting includes morning/afternoon detail of swell so I think a fair question to ask when it's missing.
Yes Vic Local Swellnet provides very detailed and accurate forecasting but that's the service they provide. If it really gets up your skirt that much because your ego obviously tells you "I'm the real vic surfer" who is too good for such forecasting commentary, then you really you should consider stopping your prolific posting on this site! Otherwise your banter could easily be seen hypocritical, passive aggressive and out of place.
VicLocal's probably just sick of muppets like you who want everything served up on a silver platter. Probably the same type that need verification from Craig that the wind will stay NW until 12.02pm and 'peak' at 3 foot by 10am before you text 3 more sheep and drive down here to help clog up another predictable line up.
Thank fuck for the ample amount of days when the forecasts are off and you and your ilk are nowhere to be seen.
Nailed it ringmaster. I've seen exactly what happens to crowds in the water when Swellnet and coastal watch get a little too excited with their forecasts and start calling swells a week or more out. People reschedule work and start planning surf trips. When the surf doesn't live up to the forecast, the crew who have come down to surf still go out. "We're here so we may as well surf anyway". Nobody wins when it's mega inconsistent small and there's 40 + surfers at all the breaks around Torquay.
When the forecasters miss or under call a swell, the crowd is significantly less. I'm talking 30-50%. Not that I'm going to let the punters know it will probably be bigger, cleaner or more consistent than predicted.
So yes ringmaster, I'm fed up with muppets who want everything served up on a silver platter.
Torquay is the new Gold Coast. Having spent many, many trips down that area I've seen it get ridiculously busy over the past 30 years but I wouldn't blame a surf forecasting site for the crowds. Population increases in general have boomed and stats show it's going to get super hectic over the next 30-50 years. I wouldn't want to be a surfer in 20-30 years time that's for sure, or living in a heavily populated area. Deal with it or you'll dig yourself an early grave worrying about it.
The surf coast isn't that great anyway...mostly fat, blown out and cold. When it's below 4ft leave it to the hoards of kooks
I got out of the area in 2011 - very glad with the outcome.
interesting, the area still appeals to me more than other Vicco alternatives (MP, PI etc) balancing wave access/quality and occupation etc. Lineups are choca's at any of the 'main' locations, only real difference is wave quality. Of course, you can get quality empty lineups to yourself with the trade off being relative isolation, guess it's a trade-off. belly, without giving away where you moved too etc. what makes you say you're glad with the outcome?
Grand parents had a holiday house near the Dangerfields ;-) cousin took it over following there passing. I'm originally from even further west but given how I make coin living there as an adult was not practical. Had mentioned in another thread I'm still an inland surfer but in close proximity to the nsw south coast. Sure we get crowds but nothing like I've seen on return 'home' visits. Everything posted here is true and I can imagine it's frustrating for locals but not everyone can live on the beach.
Parents are also situated in Port Stephens so I can easily make the leap to the mid north points for hit'n'runs. There not crowded if you hit them outside of school holidays ;-)
interesting to hear, cheers for the response
I often think; mid-north points, like home but with warmer water. Don't get me wrong there are crowds north and south of Sydney, but once you get +100km of Newcastle or the Gong they become very manageable. And like the PI / MP posts by viclocal, have legs then endless empty beachies ;)
Hey pittsy,
I've always found the MP and PI surfers are staggeringly lazy and won't walk 200 meter beyond the carparks. I've surfed plenty of great lonely peaks just 5 minutes walk from my vehicle. Not sure what the crowds are like at EP but it's pretty easy to find quality beachies over there with minimal people on them. And being the respectful bloke that I am, I take turns, communicate with other surfers, and split the peaks wherever possible.
Yeh this, Surf Coast is the only place with crowd issues in Victoria imo (excluding spots popular with longboarders). MP and PI are often slightly too big or too windy so unless you know what you are doing it ends in frustration for your average Melb punter. Torquay is the safer option with waves well suited to their hypto krypto's
Dead right Geek and lets keep it that way. I can walk out my back door, through the bush to potentially great waves and have them to myself or a few mates. Does it really get any better - an Indo trip with no crowds would be, but good luck with that.
Hmm to be honest mate Melbourne surfers have the three spots surfcoast,MP,island more wired than most of the coast guys as they are central to them all and more likely to go one way or the other depending on swellnets forecast!
Where the guys who grew up on the coast tend to stay at their local!
Alice Springs - central to all the beaches lol
If you say EP then I say Birdrock! But it is nice you say left when I want to go right?
Surf coast gets crowded on paper but unless its one of the hollow small take off spots then it really isnt as bad as it sounds. Bells or winki with 50 on each looks bad from the carpark but the lineups are so large its easy to get heaps of waves if you are a decent paddler and can surf a bit. If you really cant handle that then drive a bit in either direction and find less crowded spots, its not that difficult. I live in Ocean Grove and surf with less than 5 guys out 3-4 days a week. Monday had swell and was offshore and i surfed a name reef by myself for 45 mins before anyone came out, at 11am!
Peninsula is epic on its day but the other 300+ days a year are hard work unless you have a boat and dont work.
Yep your substandard 3-5ft offshore day on the surfcoast has limit less options for a solo surf within 20ks of the main breaks!
Just helps if everyone goes for a fun beachy surf somewhere else every now and then! Instead of just hitting winki or bells!
It's good to go try surf your backhand or forehand on some lefts for a change anyways.